|其他摘要||Based on the increasing conflicts between water resource shortage, urbanization and ecological environment and the background consideration of the constraints between oasis urban development and water resource, the Kuitun River Basin is selected as a study area in this paper.This paper extracts the land use types in four periods of time from 1999 to 2011, basin water resource spatial distribution, urban external form and hydrological data to study the temporal-spatial change of water resource in the basin, changing regular pattern of urban spatial patterning and analyzes the relationship between water resource use and urban spatial patterning in the four aspects of regional land patterning, urban system,external spatial structure and city boundary, employing the theory and methodology of the quantity model analyses for the water resource capacity assessment model, landscape patterning index, systematic dynamics and land changing simulation and so on. This study also has built the systematic dynamitic model of water resource need forecast, simulates water resource needs of different water types from 2011 to 2030, sets different economic and social development situations in current situation continuing type, balancing development type, water saving development type and economy priority type and analyzes the changing situation of water resource capacity in different above situations. And afterwards, this paper has stimulated and analyzed the changing process and trend of the land use pattern in four situations for the future time until 2030. This is important and scientific significant for realizing the reasonable exploration of the basin water and land resource and sustainable use.
The main results of this study are as follows:
(1) The spatial distributive density of water resource in the Kuitun River Basin presents the main characteristics of the north and the south high and the middle low. On the other hand, while water resources distributive density in the north and south areas shows strong spatial heterogeneity, the central region of the spatial heterogeneity is comparatively weak, reflecting its changing gradient in water resource distributive density.
(2) In the Kuitun River Basin from 1999 to 2011, while cultivated land, woodland and construction land use increased, grassland had reduced and the trend of reducing of desert, glacier and bare land was significant. The saline and alkaline land showed fluctuating, but generally increasing. Water area had been continuously growing. The urban-built areas in Kuitun city, Wusu city and Dushanzi District had been increased rapidly. During 1999 to 2003, the intensity of city expansion in Kuitun River Basin was low (6.18%) and rapidly increased during 2007to 2011. The urban-built areas in the three center cities in the Basin had been expanded towards the Lian-Huo Highway, 312 National Highway and Northern Xinjiang Railway, showing the characteristics of connection of the graphs in the three urban areas.
(3) The water resource utilization is related to land use and urban development in the Kuitun River Basin. The type of water resource utilization owns a nonlinear functional relation to variables of urban development. Among these, the main water use type such as total amount of water consumption has strong correlation relation with the area changes of cultivated land, woodland, grassland and so on. The correlation coefficient between the amount of water consumption in the region or urban area and total population, urbanization rate and the proportion of first industry is above 0.70 .
(4) Constraint intensity of water resource in the Kuitun River Basin is more than that of land resource. Underneath the four situation mode, such as current situation continuing type, balancing development type, water saving development type and economy priority type, forecasting the future to 2030, agriculture water consumption will still be the largest proportion in the Basin. While the proportion of industrial water needs will constantly increase, the proportion of agricultural water needs will gradually decrease. Ecological water needs is the smallest proportion, but its change trend will gradually increase. Under the current situation continuing type, economy priority type and balancing development type, the bearing pressure of water resources to economic and social development is great, and saving water developing mode is reasonable for bearing pressure.
(5) The spatial driving factor of land use change and urban spatial development in Kuitun River Basin is mainly reflecting in the conditions of topography and traffic and the density of water resources. The density of water resources was the one of the key factors that constrained the urban spatial development. Predicting the future to 2030, the restriction will be gradually stronger. Meanwhile, the restriction of water resource distribution to economic and social development will also be getting stronger. The constraint coefficient of water resource to the urban development under different development scenarios is up to 0.52 ~ 0.71, indicating an increasing process.
(6) Predicting the future to 2030, grassland will still be the largest land use type in the Basin, averagely occupying 38.16%. Cultivated land occupies the second, averagely with 23.63%. Changes of cultivated land, woodland, grassland and unused land are the most significant. The dynamic changes between different land use types are frequent. Land use pattern under different development scenarios has different variation characteristics, The land use pattern of water saving development scenario possesses a spatial reasonability.
(7) The development mode corresponding to the water saving scenario is the main method to the sustainable development of the Kuitun River Basin in the future. It is necessary to reduce the agriculture water use to ensure the development of urban and industry. Comparing with the current situation development scenarios, it can be predicted that the amount of agricultural water needs under water saving development scenarios would be reduced to 2.0 ×108 m3, 2.25×108 m3,2.41×108 m3 and 2.56×108 m3 in 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030 respectively.|