KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 博斯腾湖流域水文变化与水量平衡分析 | |
| 王怀军 | |
| Subtype | 博士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 陈亚宁 |
| 2015 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 自然地理学 |
| Keyword | 气候变化 农业需水 水量平衡 水资源管理 博斯腾湖流域 |
| Abstract | 水资源是人类赖以生存和社会发展不可缺少的物质基础，博斯腾湖流域位于亚欧大陆腹地，气候干燥、降水稀少、蒸发强烈，水资源非常短缺。同时，博斯腾湖流域也是中国所有流域中水资源开发利用程度最高，用水矛盾最为突出的地区之一。由于不合理的水资源管理，社会经济用水严重挤占生态用水，导致地表水过度开发，地下水位持续下降。农业作为最大的用水部门，灌溉水管理不善被认为是导致水资源短缺的重要原因。因此，有必要对流域进行水资源系统分析，掌握水资源基本特征，在此基础上制定科学合理的开发模式，最终实现社会经济和生态环境的可持续发展。 开都河是博斯腾湖的最大源流，其来水量变化关系到下游焉耆盆地和孔雀河流域国民经济发展与生态环境改善。论文在分析开都河来水量变化以及影响因素基础上，运用大气环流模式（GCM）资料与SWAT水文模型结合，预估了开都河流域未来径流量变化情况。并且，论文在借鉴国内外水资源管理理论基础上，对博斯腾湖流域灌区供水管理进行分析，剖析了博斯腾湖流域灌区水资源管理的主要困境，设计出有利于流域灌溉水资源管理的制度和政策。主要结论如下： （1）基于1958-2012年气温、降水数据，研究了博斯腾湖流域主要气候变量的变化特征。结果表明，气温在过去55年中呈显著增加趋势，但1998年以后平原气温呈增长停滞状态。降水亦呈增加趋势，但趋势不如气温显著。同时，气温观测到均值跃变，山区和平原气温分别在1985和1996发生跃变。气温极值表现为显著变暖趋势，且基于最小气温的极值变化幅度比基于最大气温变化幅度大。降水极值表现为增加趋势，且降水的增加是降水频率和降水强度共同增加的结果。博斯腾湖流域干旱指数变化表明，干旱经历了三个明显不同的时期，即变干（1958-1987）-变湿（1988-2003）-变干（2003-2012）。且干旱的变化与强大的西伯利亚高压和增强的贝加尔湖气流以及增强的西风环流有关。 （2）径流表现出三个明显的变化阶段，1955-1986水量下降期，1987-2003年水量上升期以及2004-2010水量下降期。随着离源流距离的增加，径流表现出明显的人为特征，年际变化曲线平滑性增加，波动性变小。在博斯腾湖流域源流区，气温和降水对径流具有重要的影响，其中降水为线性关系，气温为指数关系。通过多种方法（相关分析、小波互相关以及多元线性回归）证明，北半球极涡面积指数（VPA）和青藏高压（XZH）是影响博斯腾湖流域水文循环变化的主要环流因子。 （3）利用最新的国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中 46个大气环流模式（GCM），基于集合平均方法，评估了四种典型浓度路径（RCPs）情景下博斯腾湖流域未来气候变化情况。到2070年，四种排放情景下（RCP2.6，RCP4.5，RCP6.0以及RCP8.5），平均气温将升高1.5-4℃，而降水量也将增加，但趋势不如气温显著。运用土壤数据、土地利用数据、气象和水文数据、DEM等数据，构建了开都河流域SWAT水文模型，结果显示，模型率定期月径流量（1988-2000年）纳什系数（Nash-Suttcliffe系数）0.91，相对误差1.6 %，确定性系数0.91，验证期（2001-2010年）结果与率定期结果相近，表明SWAT模型可以很好的模拟博斯腾湖流域源流水资源变化情况。将GCM集合平均资料与构建的SWAT模型进行结合，模拟未来径流量变化情况，在四种辐射强迫下，径流都有一定程度增加，且随着辐射强迫的增强，春季径流会持续增加，夏季径流则会减少。 （4）采用多种方法对博斯腾湖流域生活需水量（定额法）、畜牧需水量（定额法）、工业需水量（多元回归和柯布-道格拉斯生产函数）、河道需水（7种水文学方法）、生态需水（蒸发降水差法、基于GIS 的潜水蒸发法等）、农业需水量（潜在蒸散法）进行计算，并结合供水量数据，给出了博斯腾湖流域相对合理的水量平衡表。计算结果表明，由于气候变化导致来水量变异加大以及农业需水量逐年激增，缺水量有加剧态势，其中，2010年，缺水量超过了8.56亿立方米。 （5）当前，博斯腾湖流域水资源问题日趋严重，其主要特点为水资源日益稀缺，各种用水矛盾全面激化。在基本农户-用水协会-水管人员-县水利局四个层次上，对博斯腾湖流域主要灌区进行了大量的问卷调查以及实地调研，并对农业节水现状进行了研究，指出灌区用水存在以下问题：工程不配套，老化失修严重；流域管理被区域管理分割；灌区实际灌溉面积统计不到位；地下水开采管理混乱、地下水掠夺式开采导致地下水位下降明显，水质恶化；农民用水协会作用发挥十分有限，部分灌区用水协会难以维系；农业生产结构不够合理。以上这些问题，我们通常采用传统的工程手段来解决，然而，随着新建工程难度加大，因此，必须采用新的灌区管理途径：强化流域的统一协调管理；明晰流域水土公共资源产权；对耕地面积进行普查，强化“以水定地”的流域开发战略；实行地表水与地下水统一管理；稳妥控制流域人口增长，改变灌溉制度和种植结构，达到规模种植；积极培育和发展农民用水协会组织，强化基本农户的权力和意识。 |
| Other Abstract | Water resources are indispensable material basis for human existence and social economic development. Boston Lake Basin is located in the hinterland of the Eurasian continent. The area has a typical inner-continental climate, featured by dry climate, low precipitation, strong evaporation, and shortage of water resources. The Bosten Lake Basin is the region with highest degree of development and water resource utilization. The deterioration of the ecological environment and the over exploitation of natural resources have resulted in vegetation degradation and eco-environment destruction. Due to the unreasonable allocation of water resources, the social and economic water consumption has occupied the ecological water requirement, which will cause excessive exploitation of groundwater and surface water. Agriculture is the major water consumption section, and the poor water management has gradually been recognized as one of the important reasons for water shortage. So it is necessary to carry out systemic analysis for water resources and to reveal the relationship between water resources and ecological environment. Based on the above analysis, we can formulate the scientific and reasonable mode for water utilization, and eventually realize the harmonious development of social economy and ecological environment. Kaidu River is the main source of the China's largest inland freshwater lake-Bosten Lake. The runoff variation has great impacts on the improvement of ecological environment of Yanqi Basin and the Kongque River Basin. Based on theoretical study and practical experience of the successful irrigation water management at home and abroad, we analyzed the water management problems, and designed management system and regulation policy to facilitate the irrigation water resources. The results showed that: (1) Based on the data of runoff, air temperature, and precipitation from 1958 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the Bosten Lake Basin were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1958 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, while the significance was less than temperature. Step changes are observed in 1996 in the mountain temperature and in 1985 in the plain air temperature. The temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends. Warming trends in indices derived from daily minimum temperature are of greater magnitudes than those from maximum temperature. In addition, evolutions of drought in the Bosten Lake Basin from 1958 to 2010 were analyzed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Differences between these drought indices were compared. For the entire geographical area of study, three contrasting periods were evident between 1958 and 2010 for both the SPI and SPEI. Wet conditions dominated during the period from 1987 to 2010, whereas persistent drought conditions occurred from 1960 to 1986. In addition a strong Siberian high-pressure and enhanced airflow from the Baikal Lake resulted in increased precipitation in the Bosten Lake Basin. (2) Runoff variation showed different characteristics, and can be roughly divided into three stages, which decreased before 1986, increased between 1987-2003, and decreased after 2003. With the distance increase from the origin, the runoff showed human characteristics, namely, the inter-annual variation curve of volatility become more and more smooth. The precipitation and air temperature have significant impacted on runoff. Additionally, relationships between hydrological variables and seven selected teleconnection indices were analyzed. The hydrological processes in this region are affected by the area of Northern Hemisphere polar vortex (VPA) and the Tibetan Plateau High (XZH). (3) Climate models have continued to be developed and improved since the IPCC AR4, and many models have been extended into Earth System models. Ensemble methods are used to explore the uncertainty in climate model simulations. The most common approach to characterize Multi-model Ensembles (MME) results is to calcu¬late the arithmetic mean of the individual model results.The future climate have been constructed using the CMIP5 model output available at the time of the AR5. This data set comprises 32/42/25/39 scenario experiments for RCP2.6/4.5/6.0/8.5 from 46 climate models. Future increase in air temperature is very likely in the Bosten lake basin. It is likely that the air temperature will increased by 1.5-4℃. For precipitation, there is no significant change under IPCC AR5. Based on the data of DEM, land use and soil data, we have constructed the SWAT model in Kaidu River Basin. The simulated results are in good agreement with the observed streamflow. In calibration period (1988-2000), the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient is 0.91, the average relative error (REMS) is 1.6 %, and coefficient of determination (R2) 0.91. In the velidation period (2001-2010), the N-S coefficient, REMS and R2 are 0.87, 6.5% and 0.89, respectively, which have reached the standard of evaluation model. GCM ensemble mean data were coupled with the SWAT model to simulated future runoff. Under four emission scenarios, the runoff will increase with the spring runoff increase and summer runoff decrease. (4) Using various methods, we calculated the domestic water demand (the norm method), livestock water demand (norm method), industrial water demand (multiple regression and Cobb Douglas production function), ecological water requirement (phreatic evaporation method), river water requirement (seven hydrology method), and agricultural water demand (crop coefficient approach). Combined with the water supply, the relatively reasonable water balance was given in this thesis. Due to the climate change and the increasing agricultural water demand year by year, water shortage has exacerbated in recent years, for example, in 2010, more than 8.56×108 m3 of water shortage were observed. (5) At present, the water shoratge in Bosten Lake Basin are becoming more and more serious. We carried out the massive questionnaire survey and field investigation to study the agricultural water management, and pointed out the main existing problems for irrigation: 1) The engineering is not complete with a state of some disrepair; 2) Watershed management is divided by regional water management; 3) The irrigation area is actually underestimated; 4) The over exploitation of the groundwater caused water level dropped significantly; 5) The role of Water User Association (WUA) is very limited, some Water User Association (WUA) are difficult to maintain; 6) The structure of agricultural production is not reasonable. In the past, we usually adopt traditional techniques and engineerings to solve the water resource shortage. However, with the difficulty of increasing new construction, we must adopt some new ways to solve the water shortage. The strategy are as follows: Strengthening integrated management of River Basin; clearing the public right of soil and water resources;surveying the acturally cultivated land area; strengthening the strategy of "area determined by the water"; implementing the unified management of groundwater and surface water; Actively cultivating the farmer Water User Association (WUA). |
| Subject Area | 自然地理学 |
| Language | 中文 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14598 |
| Collection | 研究系统_荒漠环境研究室 |
| Affiliation | 中科院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 王怀军. 博斯腾湖流域水文变化与水量平衡分析[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2015. |
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