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Thesis Advisor李兰海
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline自然地理学
KeywordGis-sd 二元水循环 模拟模型 焉耆盆地 博斯腾湖
Abstract水-生态-经济系统之间的耦合关系,是在区域发展过程中这三个子系统之间相互作用、相互影响和相互制约等非线性关系的总合。人类经济建设活动的日益加大和现代社会发展需求的不断提高,使原有的自然水文循环过程出现了二元分化,增加水-生态-经济系统耦合关系的复杂性和不确定性。本研究以新疆焉耆盆地为研究靶区,借助国内外相关领域的新理论和研究成果,以3S技术和SD建模方法相结合,探索进行流域水文要素的提取及其时空展布,构建二元水循环过程模拟的时空动力学模型。研究焉耆盆地水资源调节枢纽—博斯腾湖水盐平衡的动态演变及其生态效应。在水文要素信息挖掘方面提出:①无需阈值的水面面积信息提取指数CBDN;②博斯腾湖芦苇湿地动态监测方法;③湖水水位和库容信息的反演方法;④从中分辨率遥感影像提取农作物面积信息的方法等。构建基于GIS-SD的焉耆盆地及博斯腾湖的二元水循环模拟模型,对博斯腾湖水盐平衡的主要水文要素进行敏感度分析和情景分析,得到以下结论: (1)地表水入湖水量、蒸发量和地表水出湖水量是影响湖水位的主要因素;保持湖水的高水位意味着大量水资源的蒸发损失,博斯腾湖通过蒸发损失的水量大于流入总地表水量的一半以上; (2)湖水位和湖水交换率是影响博斯腾湖水矿化度的主要因素; (3)博斯腾湖水交换率的提高不但能够降低湖水矿化度,还能给湖下游的孔雀河流域提供更多的地表水; (4)扩大孔雀河流域的灌溉面积比在开都河流域扩大灌溉面积,更有利于湖矿化度的降低和减少湖水无效蒸发的损失量
Other AbstractNonlinear relationships exist among water resources, ecology and economy, which shapes the process of the regional development. Along with intensification of human activities and increasing demand of socio-economy on water differentiated the existed water cycle to natural water cycle and artificial water cycle, it resulted in more complication and uncertainty of water system behavior. This research employed the 3S technology and System Dynamics as an effective methodology to study the extraction of spatio-temporal hydrologic information, dualistic water cycle modeling, and the coupled water and salt balance dynamics model of Bosten lake as well as their environmental consequences. Some new methodologies for hydro-informatics field were proposed, including: (1) automatic water surface area extraction index, CBDN, without threshold values for extracting water surface area; (2) dynamic monitoring method of reed wetlands of Bosten lake; (3) water table and volume information deriving methods from lake water surface area by remote sensing technology; (4) classification and extraction method of crops information from remote sensing images of medium spatial resolution. Spatio-temporal dynamics model was developed, and designed with possible scenarios for future variations of water balance and environment. Main conclusions were drawn as: (1) Surface water inflow, evaporation and surface water outflow are the most critical parameters for water balance of Bosten Lake. High water level means more unproductive water lost by evaporation, and the average water lost was larger than half of the average surface water inflow; (2) Water level and water exchange rate are the most important factors affecting salinity of Bosten lake; (3) Increasing water exchange of the lake promoted a decreasing average salinity of the lake and an increasing water supply for the downstream area of the lake; (4) Enlarging the agricultural area in the Konqi River basin instead of the Kaidu River basin promoted a decrease in the lake’s salinity as well as a decrease in the total amount of salt in the lake.
Subject Area自然地理学
Document Type学位论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
玉素甫江·如素力. 基于GIS-SD的新疆焉耆盆地二元水循环过程模拟研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2015.
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