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基于重力卫星GRACE和GLDAS反演中亚天山水储量的时空变化
杨鹏
学位类型硕士
导师陈亚宁
2015
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点北京
学位专业自然地理学
关键词天山山区 水储量 Grace 时空变化
摘要本文采用2003年1月~2013年3月的GRACE(Gravity Research and Climate Experiment)时变重力场球谐系数、陆地同化模型系统同化数据GLDAS(Global Land Data Assimilation System)及GRACE水储量产品数据,结合Mann-Kendall非参数检验、EOF(Empirical Orthogonal Function)主成分分析、相关性检验法,研究了天山山区降水、蒸散发及P-E(Precipitation-Evapotranspiration)、水储量的时空变化,分析了天山山区降水及蒸散发变化对天山山区水储量变化的影响。 本文结论如下: (1)2003年1月~2013年3月天山山区降水量、蒸散发量有明显的季节变化,夏季该区降水和蒸散发量较大,冬季该区降水和蒸散发量比较小,整个研究时段天山山区降水和蒸散发呈增加趋势,同时,降水及蒸散发均在2008年出现最小值。与此同时,研究结果还表明天山山区的P-E大多数情况下为负值,虽然在研究时段内P-E有所增加,但是在整个研究时段内P-E的线性拟合值始终为负。 (2)2003年1月~2013年3月天山山区的降水量、蒸散发量及P-E量变化率的空间分布在月尺度和季节尺度上,空间差异很大,并且这种差异随着季节变化和气候变化不断发生改变;在年时间尺度上,天山山区的降水变化率在西部地区为正(增加),在中东部为负(减少);天山山区的蒸散发量变化率在西部也为正(增加),在中东部为负(减少);天山山区的P-E在西北部为正(增加),在东部为负(减少)。 (3)2003年1月~2013年3月天山山区水储量在年内月变化上,头年8月到次年1月,研究区域内陆地水储量为亏损状态,3~7月研究区域内陆地水储量为盈余状态;在年内季节变化上,秋季陆地水储量最少,春季最多;在年际变化上,CSR机构提供的GRACE球谐系数估算的天山及其周边地区陆地水储量变化振幅约为-80~75mm,以0.49±0.1mm每月的速度下降,GRGS机构提供的GRACE的3级产品估算的天山山区陆地水储量变化振幅约为-120~100mm,以0.56±0.3mm每月的速度下降,两种数据结果相关系数达0.86。 (4)2003年1月~2013年3月天山山区的水储量变化率的空间分布在月尺度和季节尺度上,受天山山区降水、蒸散发及P-E的影响,空间差异很大,并且这种差异随着季节变化和气候变化不断改变;在季节变化率上,春季研究区域内西部水储量呈明显的增加趋势,东部呈减少的趋势,夏季研究区域内水储量除个别地区之外几乎全为增加趋势,秋季研究区域内东部水储量增加,中西部地区水储量减少,冬季研究区域内西部水储量呈增加趋势,中东部水储量呈减少趋势;在年变化率上,整个天山山区的水储量呈减少趋势,并且东部减少趋势比西部更明显,通过了99%的置信区间的M-K检验。
其他摘要In present study, the time variable gravity field spherical harmonic coefficients of Gravity Research and Climate Experiment (GRACE) from Center of Space Research (CSR), terrestrial water storage product data of GRACE, and community land model (CLM) based on Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) assimilation data from January 2003 to March 2013 were used as data source, and Mann-Kendall non-parametric test, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) principal component analysis, correlation analysis were adopted to: (1) Investigate the spatial and temporal variations of precipitation, evapotranspiration, Precipitation-Evapotranspiration (P-E) and terrestrial water storage in Tianshan Mountains; (2) Identify the variations of precipitation and evapotranspiration can result in what influences on the changes of terrestrial water storage. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The precipitation, evapotranspiration, and P-E in Tianshan Mountains have distinctive seasonal variation characterized by larger values in summer and smaller values in winter. Amount of precipitation and evapotranspiration were increasing from January 2003 to March 2013, and the minimum precipitation and evapotranspiration were both happened in 2008. P-E in Tianshan Mountains was negative value in most cases. Although P-E values has increased throughout study period, the linear fitted values of P-E were always negative. (2) Monthly and seasonal spatial variations of precipitation, evapotranspiration and P-E in Tianshan Mountains were significantly different, and these differences were changed with season change and climate change. Annual spatial variations of precipitation, evapotranspiration and P-E were characterized by increasing in the west of Tianshan Mountains and decreasing in the middle-east of Tianshan Mountains. (3) Changes of terrestrial water storage within the year in Tianshan were characterized by great deficit from August to next January and surplus from March to July, and smaller in autumn and greater in spring. Inter-annual changes of water storage estimated from GRACE spherical harmonic coefficients and GRACE third level product showed that the change amplitudes of water storage were about -80~75mm and -120~100mm, with 0.49 ± 0.1mm and 0.56 ± 0.3mm decrease per month, respectively. The correlation coefficient of those two results was 0.86 at 0.01 significant levels. (4) Spatial distributions of monthly and seasonal change rate of water storage were distinctively different and strongly influenced by precipitation, evapotranspiration and P-E in Tianshan Mountains. These differences were changed with season change and climate change. Seasonal changes were characterized by significant increases in the west and decreases in the east in spring, increases in all study areas in summer, increases in the east and decreases in the middle west in autumn, and increases in the west and decreases in the middle east in winter. Inter-annual changes of water storage showed that water storage has declined and decreases in the east were greater than those in the west.
学科领域自然地理学
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14640
专题研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
作者单位中科院新疆生态与地理研究所
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
杨鹏. 基于重力卫星GRACE和GLDAS反演中亚天山水储量的时空变化[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2015.
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