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基于水足迹理论的新疆水资源评价及生态用水变化分析
杨雅雪
学位类型硕士
导师杨井 ; 陈亚宁
2015
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点北京
学位专业自然地理学
关键词投入产出分析 结构分解分析 水足迹 虚拟水 生态用水
摘要新疆地处干旱区,加之近几年经济的快速发展,加剧了水资源的紧缺程度,给新疆的水生态环境带来了严重的影响。因此,探讨不同产业部门的用水效率、用水现状以及人类用水对水生态环境的影响对于实现水资源的高效利用和合理配置是至关重要的。虚拟水可以更好地反映产品的实际用水量,而水足迹是定量描述区域用水量的有效方法,基于投入产出模型的水足迹计算可以对各部门的实际用水量进行评估。本文通过投入产出法、结构分解分析以及水量平衡原理对新疆2002年到2007年的生产和消费水足迹、虚拟水贸易、生态用水量,以及人类用水对生态用水的影响进行计算,结果发现:(1)新疆水资源受本地消费和虚拟水出口带来的双重压力。新疆对外出口大量的虚拟水,2002年和2007年新疆虚拟水出口分别占总生产水足迹的47 %和67 %,其中农林牧渔业分别占总虚拟水出口的70 %和86 %;另外,内部水足迹占用了大部分的消费水足迹,在2002年和2007年,其占用比例分别为88 %和80 %,其中农林牧渔业和食品制造及烟草加工业在内部水足迹占有较大比例。(2)新疆2002年到2007年生产水足迹增加了29×108 m3,其中,技术效应、产业结构效应、本地消费尺度效应和出口尺度效应分别贡献了-158×108 m3、-68×108 m3、15×108 m3和240×108 m3。技术效应是生产水足迹减少的最主要因素,而由技术因素带来的生产水足迹减少又大部分被出口尺度效应带来的生产水足迹增加所抵消。(3)新疆生产用水挤占生态用水现象突出,以2002年新疆各产业部门用水量为基准,得出2007年新疆生产用水共挤占生态用水量104.6×108 m3,其中农林牧渔业(部门1)对生态用水挤占最为严重,为81.17×108 m3。(4)虚拟水出口增加为生产用水挤占生态用水现象负主要责任。2007年总虚拟水出口差为74.05×108 m3,占总生产水足迹差的67.69 %,是生产水足迹差的主要贡献者。因此,减少新疆生态用水的压力,合理控制虚拟水出口很有必要,由于农林牧渔业对虚拟水出口占很大比例,所以控制虚拟水出口的根本在于控制农副产品的出口。但考虑到新疆的消费和贸易模式,应该大力推进节水农业的发展,通过提高总用水强度,达到高产、低耗的生产目的,进而均衡经济用水和生态用水的比例,实现经济与生态环境的可持续发展。
其他摘要Located in arid area, water is always the bottleneck of economic development in Xinjiang, and there is no doubt that recent fast economic development has made the water scarcity more serious than before, and seriously affected the aquatic ecological environment. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of water use efficiency and the water use structure in different economic sectors is essential to enhance the water use efficiency and realize the optimal allocation of water resources. Water footprint and virtual water can quantitatively describe the volume of water use in a region. In this paper, we calculated the water footprint of consumption, water footprint of production, virtual water export, ecological water use and the effect of human water use on ecological water use of Xinjiang in 2002 and 2007 with the input-output model, structural decomposition analysis and theory of water balance. Results showed that: 1) Xinjiang suffers the dual pressure of water shortage from both local and ambient social activity in exporting large amount of virtual water (mostly through agricultural products export) and meeting the local consumption mainly through local production. Virtual water export accounted for 47 % and 67 % of WFP (Water Footprint Production) in 2002 and 2007, respectively. And IWF (Internal Water Footprint) accounted for 88 % and 80 % of total WFC (Water Footprint Production) in 2002 and 2007, respectively. 2) The total increase of WFP from 2002 to 2007 was 29×108 m3, contributed by technological effect of -158×108 m3, structural effect of -68×108 m3, scale effect of local consumption of 15×108 m3 and scale effect of export of 240×108 m3. Therefore, technological effect (T_i) was the main factor for the decreasing WFP, but the decrease was offset mostly by the scale effect of export (SE_i). 3) The phenomenon that industrial water use squeezed ecological water use was rather serious in Xinjiang in 2007. Taking the sectoral water use level in 2002 as the standard, the total volume of squeezed ecological water use was 109.39×108 m3, of which agriculture contributed mostly (81.17×108 m3). 4) The increase trend of VWE (Virtual Water Export) responded mostly to the squeezed ecological water use. In 2007, the squeezed volume by the increase of VWE was 74.05×108 m3, accounting for 67.60 % of total WFC increase. Therefore, to relieve the pressure of ecological water use, it is advisable to control the expansion of agricultural products export. However, considering the consumption mode and economic trade mode, it is more reasonable and acceptable to accelerate the development of water-saving irrigation.
学科领域自然地理学
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14678
专题研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
作者单位中科院新疆生态与地理研究所
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
杨雅雪. 基于水足迹理论的新疆水资源评价及生态用水变化分析[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2015.
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