|其他摘要||Tarim River is called the "Mother River" by people of Xinjiang privince. However, the Tarim River had been significant changed due to frequent diversions during the historical period, thus gained a nother vividly name "no reins of the horse". Every diversion and change were left a significant impact on the ecological environment of Tarim Basin especially ancient oasis' rise and fall along Tarim river, such as the disappearance of the Loulan civilization and Haitou civilization.The paper reviewed the river development tracks of Tarim River and the rise and fall of the ancient oasis along the river during the past 2,000 years by searching the historical records and related documents .
We find from the historical records that Tarim River has been continually moving from the south to the north and gradually shrinking: Before the Northern Wei Dynasty (about AD 386), the Tarim River was consist of two rivers, the north river and the south river, and their distance was at least 240 kilometers; From the Northern Wei Dynasty to middle Tang Dynasty (about AD 755), the south river northward about 160-180 kilometers which made it lose two water sources and the beginning of collapse, meanwhile downstream of the north river northward 60-85 kilometers; From middle Tang Dynasty to the eve of Yuan Dynasty (AD 1225), the south river further collapsed and only one water source remained; From Yuan Dynasty to early days of Qing Dynasty (AD 1670), the only one water source of the south river northward about 70 kilometers flowing into the north river, and then the south river dried up and disappeared; From the early days of Qing Dynasty to the Republic, Tarim River repeatedly swung north and south for 40-50 kilometers, and eventually back to the initial position in early Qing Dynasty; Nearly 60 years, the middle reaches of Tarim River northward about 50-100 kilometers.
In the statistical process of 205 ancient cities which were good recorded, we find that the rise and fall of them has the following rule : Ancient city's construction and discarding appeared peak In time, Han, Tang and Qing Dynasties (Han Dynasty constructed 77 new cities ,discarded 32; Tang Dynasty constructed 43 new cities ,discarded 77; Qing Dynasty constructed 13 new cities ,discarded 19); Wei and Jin Dynasty, Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms and Song Dynasty, Yuan and Ming dynasties were the trough (Wei and Jin Dynasty constructed 20 new cities ,discarded 19; Five Dynasties and Ten Kingdoms and Song Dynasty constructed 8 new cities, discarded 15; Yuan and Ming Dynasty constructed 9 new cities, discarded 10). In space, Han, Tang and Qing Dynasties ancient cities' construction and discarding throughout Tarim Basin while other historical periods are limited to parts of the basin.
By comparing the evolution of the Tarim River with the history of ancient city's rise and fall, we fond that Tarim river northward by a large scale from the Northern Wei Dynasty to the whole Tang Dynasty and swung north and south in Qing Dynasty is exactly the period of ancient cities abandoned peak in Tarim basin. There is a obviously consistency between changes in river and ancient city's discarding. Statistical analysis to 40 cities that had determined abandoned factors showed that 26 cities were river diversions and drying, accounted 65%; 11 were war, accounted 27.5%; flood, changes in river and war, demolition one of each, accounted 2.5%. This showed that river diversions and drying are the main factors that lead to discarding of ancient cities. River changes and subsequent changes of water in space are fundamental factors that decide ancient city's life and death.
Research and analysis have shown that the historical changes of Tarim River are the results of many interacted factors including regional tectonic movement and terrain features, prevailing wind and dune movement of the Tarim Basin, hydrology climate change and human activities. In the end, the paper combined with human activity discussing three possible outcomes of Tarim River and proposed future governance recommendations. Holding the view that the Tarim River will neither recover back to the state of yestoday nor appear the drying of entire watercourse, but continue to maintain the current "four water sources and one river" situation. Thus, people in the future should improve the management level of water resources in Tarim River Basin to serves well for our country's construction of silk road economic belt.|