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南疆地区就业情境模拟与政策优化研究
张文彪
Subtype博士
Thesis Advisor杨德刚
2017-12-01
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral新疆乌鲁木齐
Degree Discipline理学博士
Keyword农业剩余劳动力 就业政策 资源环境约束 系统动力学 南疆
Abstract就业问题首先受到人口劳动力和产业发展的直接影响,在生态脆弱地区,产业发展又受到区域资源环境的直接约束。本研究在之前研究成果的基础上,将资源环境约束纳入就业约束条件,通过资源环境约束、人口与劳动力、产业发展与就业相互关系中的直接关系,建立典型生态脆弱地区的区域就业理论模型,因而具有更为普遍的指导意义。
Other AbstractEmployment problem is primarily forced by labor and development of industries. Industrial development is also limited directly by natural resources and environment in ecologically fragile areas. natural resources and environment such as agricultural condition also effluents regional population and labor. On the basis of present researches,this research reduced natural resources and environment as the limit one of factor of employment , built a regional employment model in ecologically fragile areas through direct relations among natural resources and environment, labor, development of industries. Thus it has more common guiding significance. This paper measured economic carrying capacity of typical region of South Xinjiang, and gave out limit factors of oasis industrial development. Reasonable structure and labor demand of industry under resources and environmental limitation were analyzed and population of labors could be employed was predicted through methods such as input-output model, exponential regression, structural analysis and so on. Quantity of emigrant labor was also predicted. Employment situation under varied resource-environment conditions, population and labor policies, agricultural structure, industrial policies and labor emigrate models by system dynamic models. On the basis of typical regional analysis, total employment situation of South Xinjiang were predicted. Main conclusions are as below. At the lower expected industrial growth rate where secondary and tertiary industrial growth rate is 8% and 7%, the unemployment would be inverse U curve,and goes down to 1.60 million by 2025, while water exploitation rate would reach 72.1%. If growth rate of secondary and tertiary industry is 11.2% and 11%, the unemployment would keep go down to 0.93million,and water exploitation ra2000