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南疆地区就业情境模拟与政策优化研究
张文彪
学位类型博士
导师杨德刚
2017-12-01
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点新疆乌鲁木齐
学位专业理学博士
关键词农业剩余劳动力 就业政策 资源环境约束 系统动力学 南疆
摘要就业问题首先受到人口劳动力和产业发展的直接影响,在生态脆弱地区,产业发展又受到区域资源环境的直接约束。本研究在之前研究成果的基础上,将资源环境约束纳入就业约束条件,通过资源环境约束、人口与劳动力、产业发展与就业相互关系中的直接关系,建立典型生态脆弱地区的区域就业理论模型,因而具有更为普遍的指导意义。
其他摘要Employment problem is primarily forced by labor and development of industries. Industrial development is also limited directly by natural resources and environment in ecologically fragile areas. natural resources and environment such as agricultural condition also effluents regional population and labor. On the basis of present researches,this research reduced natural resources and environment as the limit one of factor of employment , built a regional employment model in ecologically fragile areas through direct relations among natural resources and environment, labor, development of industries. Thus it has more common guiding significance. This paper measured economic carrying capacity of typical region of South Xinjiang, and gave out limit factors of oasis industrial development. Reasonable structure and labor demand of industry under resources and environmental limitation were analyzed and population of labors could be employed was predicted through methods such as input-output model, exponential regression, structural analysis and so on. Quantity of emigrant labor was also predicted. Employment situation under varied resource-environment conditions, population and labor policies, agricultural structure, industrial policies and labor emigrate models by system dynamic models. On the basis of typical regional analysis, total employment situation of South Xinjiang were predicted. Main conclusions are as below. At the lower expected industrial growth rate where secondary and tertiary industrial growth rate is 8% and 7%, the unemployment would be inverse U curve,and goes down to 1.60 million by 2025, while water exploitation rate would reach 72.1%. If growth rate of secondary and tertiary industry is 11.2% and 11%, the unemployment would keep go down to 0.93million,and water exploitation rate get to 73.3%. If keep water exploitation rate below 70%, On present level of water use, agricultural employment would be reduced, and the total unemployment would go up to 1.69 million. If water-saving irrigation is completely covered, the arable land could be enlarged and make total employment lower to 0.05 million, in that case the employment problem would be almost solved. If solve unemployment problem through developing labor intensive industry by subsidy and other policies, the subsidy demand would be 249-498 million per year. If solve employment problem by developing labor intensive industries without enlarging arable land, the subsidy would go as high as 8.47-16.95 billion per year. Several suggestions were given on the basis of overall analysis of employment problem in South Xinjiang. 1. Enlarge arable land extending water-saving technology in the whole area. 2. Support the development of labor intensive industries more accurately through reasonable subsidy. 3. Raise the flow of labor among areas. 4. Control the population growth by comprehensively strengthening birth-planning work. This research still has some disadvantage in data quality and method choosing, and subdivided employment research on different industries and different policy situations would be done, which could be studied as the direction of further research.
学科领域人文地理学
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14769
专题研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
作者单位中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
张文彪. 南疆地区就业情境模拟与政策优化研究[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2017.
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