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学科主题: 地图学与地理信息系统
题名:
气候变化对印度河上游流域水文水资源变化的影响,巴基斯坦
作者: GAREE KHAN
答辩日期: 2017-05-01
导师: CHEN XI (陈曦)
专业: 理学博士
授予单位: 中国科学院大学
授予地点: 新疆乌鲁木齐
学位: 博士
关键词: SWAT 水文模拟 ; 罕萨河 ; 印度河上游流域 ; 融雪融冰 ; 气候变化 ; RCPs ; GCM ; 冰川 ; 喜马拉雅山、喀喇昆仑山和兴都库什山 ; 喀喇昆仑异常 ; MODIS ; 雪盖 ; 卫星降水产品(CHIRPS) ; 帕米尔高原和天山
摘要: 喜马拉雅山、喀喇昆仑山和兴都库什山的冰川有着复杂的动力学作用,近几十年来经历了保持稳定或扩张。然而,世界各地的冰川正在迅速退缩。这种现象称为喀喇昆仑异常。该地区拥有世界上除了极地以外最大的冰川和冰盖,被称为世界第三高峰。季节性的冰川积雪融水在为下游的居民提供水资源的山地生态系统中扮演着重要角色。在随着喀喇昆仑山冰川融化出现的众多问题中基于水文模型的积雪覆盖动态变化模拟对巴基斯坦吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区水资源管理有着重要意义。精确的山区降水估算对许多水文过程至关重要,例如冰川物质平衡,河流径流,干旱和洪水监测等。在复杂山区,是很难获得准确的降雨量数据。但是,卫星降水量产品可以作为这些地区降雨估算的备用数据源。全球覆盖的高时空分辨率卫星降水数据已经用于许多研究领域。因此,在研究区可用的冰川物质平衡,雪盖动力学以及降水空间格局的背景下,重要的就是河流径流的测量。将 SWAT 模型结合温度指数和高程分带算法应用到以冰川融雪水位主要水源的罕萨流域。本文利用 SWAT 模型模拟了冰川积雪覆盖度高的罕萨流域的径流量对未来气候变化的响应及其对印度和水系时空特征的贡献。模型以 1998-2004 年为校准期,以 2008-2010 年为验证期,并以 4个推荐的统计参数(p 因子和 r 因子)作为不确定性评价指标进行模拟。模型模拟结果较好,校准期和验证期的评价指标分别为 R2 系数为 0.82,Nash 系数为 0.8,P 因子为 79% R 因子为 76%。本文利用 IPCC 第 5 次报告中的 GCMs(General Circulation Models)数据,以 1980-2010 为基准期,预测了未来 2030-2059 和 2070-2099 两个时间段的径流量。结果显示,到本世纪末气温增高 1.39 °C 到 6.58 °C,降水量降水增加 31%,导致径流量增加 5%到 10%.积雪动态变化分析采用的是 MODIS 8 天合成的积雪覆盖数据,以此来与印度河上游高纬度地区的 4 个气象站的 2000 年到 2014 年的数据进行对应。结果表明,巴基斯坦吉尔吉特-巴尔蒂斯坦地区的积雪覆盖面积从 45.04%增长到 59.26%。通过 15 年的观测数据可以看出兴都库什山和喜马拉雅山的积雪覆盖面积有轻微的减少趋势,主要是因为降水和温度的增加。实测的水文气象数据,大地测量数据和卫星数据表明喀喇昆仑山西部冰川自 1990 年以来具有保持稳定或扩张的趋势。罕萨河流量从 1966到 2010 年的六月至九月减少的现象可以解释这种反常现象。喀喇昆仑山脉西部的天气模式转移和降雪/积雪(MODIS 数据分析)的增加等趋势,并不能提供冰川退化的直接证据。本文在全球气候模式的三种排放情景(IPCC 第五次报告的 RCP2.6,RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景)下预测了未来的径流量。预测结果表明,河流径流在本世纪中叶之前增加,之后会下降,这就为喀喇昆仑山的冰川趋于稳定或者增加现象提供了强有力的证据。通过高分卫星日尺度,月尺度,和年尺度的降水产品结合在喀喇昆仑,帕米尔高原和天山 地区的地面观测数据进行估算。通过 ME 值获得的最佳相关系数表明有少量的降水被低估。 同理,在年时间尺度上,降水观测数据和卫星降水产品的最大偏差,中误差,平方根误差和误差有很强的相关性。在具有 95%置信区间的测量站和CHIRPS 产品之间也观察到良好的相关性(r≥0.80)。观察到 CHIPRS 数据集的最大偏差(0.98)和中误差(-0.23mm decad-1)。在气候变化情境下,结合地面观测数据,MODIS 积雪覆盖产品和 CHIRPS 降水产品,本研究解释了巴基斯坦境内印度河上游流域积雪变迁现象。本研究还提供了罕萨河对气候变化响应的有关信息。这些结果可用于制定该区域未来可持续水管理的有效战略,同时克服下游水库如 DiamerBasha水坝的蓄洪和水存储的脆弱性。这些发现可以帮助对该地区季节性径流的预测,以及用雪盖变化来作为气候变化的响应。
英文摘要: The Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindukush (HKH) glaciers plays complex dynamics role and experienced of gain mass or stable in the current decades. It is completely opposite elsewhere glaciers are rapidly decline in the world namely Karakoram Anomaly. The region contains largest glaciers/ice mass outside of the polar region, and also considered as third pole of the world. The seasonal snow and glacier-melt plays an important role in the mountain ecosystem which supply the water for many inhabitant downstream. Among the rising issue over the melting of Karakoram glaciers, snow cover dynamics with hydrological modeling is more important factor of water resources management (to calculate the status of glacier and ice mass) in the region of (GB; Gilgit-Baltistan), Pakistan.Precisely rainfall estimation in mountainous regions are essential for many water hydrological related processes (like glacier mass balance, river runoff and drought and flood monitoring). It is rarely found accurately measure rainfall data from rain gauges in complex mountain regions. However satellite precipitation products can be used as an alternate data source for rainfall estimation in these areas. For many research fields available near-global coverage high spatio-temporal resolution satellite rainfall datasets are used. Therefore, it is important to correctly done measurements of river runoff in context of available glacier mass balance and snow-cover dynamics and spatial pattern of precipitation in the study region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model combined with a temperature index and elevation band algorithm was applied to the Hunza watershed, where snow and glacier-melt are the major contributor to river flow. SWAT, applied to evaluate the performance in the highly snow and glacier covered watershed of the Upper Indus Basin in response to climate change on future streamflow volume at the outlet of the Hunza watershed, and its contribution to the Indus River System in both space and time. Model are calibrate for the years 1998–2004 and validated for the years 2008–2010 with four recommended statistical coefficients with uncertainty analysis (p-factor and r-factor). The model generates good results for calibration and validation with coefficient of determination (R2=0.82), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NS=0.80), the daily pfactor=79% and r-factor=76%. The model are also evaluated with three GCMs (General Circulation Models) of the IPCC fifth report for 2030–2059 and 2070–2099, using 1980–2010 as the control period. From the results, temperature (1.39 °C to 6.58 °C) and precipitation (31%) will be increase at end of this century with increasing river flow (5%–10%).Snow-cover dynamics using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8- days snow in response to in-situ weather data from 4 high altitude weather stations in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) for the years 2000-2014. The results reveal that, the snowcovered area (SCA) is increase of 45.04% to 59.26% of the total GB area. There is slightly decreasing tendency in the SCA in the Hindukush and Himalayan mountains region was observed for the period of 15 years, due to increases in temperature and precipitation. From the field observations (hydrological, meteorological data), geodetic measurements and satellite data advise that in the western part of Karakoram Mountains glaciers are either stable or growing since 1990. The behavior of decreased discharge of Hunza River for four months (June to September) from 1966-2010 providing a strong evidence of this anomalous phenomenon. These trends indicating the shifting of weather patterns and increase snowfall/snow cover (MODIS data analysis) over western Karakoram and does not providing a direct evidence of declining of glaciers. Future river flow are also estimated in combination with hydrological modeling and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 of IPPC Fifth Assessment Reports). The results of RCPs revealed that, future predicted flows are increasing till midcentury and then decrease, and it is provides a strong evidence of glaciers in Karakoram are stable or gain mass. From the evaluation of high resolution satellite precipitation (Climate Hazard Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS)) product at time scale of daily, monthly,annually, seasonally and dekadly along with ground based gauge stations data measurement over the Karakoram, Pamir and Tianshan Mountains regions. The best correlation and score is observed with value of ME (-0.57mm month-1), and indicating little underestimated rainfall. Similarly for annual time scale, strong relationship (0.82) is found between observed rain gauge data and CHIRPS dataset with Bias (1.02), ME (10.01), RMSE (120.23), and E (0.70) respectively. Good correlation (r ≥ 0.80) is also observed between the gauge stations and CHIRPS product with 95% confidence interval. The greatest Bias (0.98) and ME (–0.23mm decad-1) are observed for CHIPRS dataset. The study support to understand the behavior of dynamics of snow cover in UIB, Pakistan in context of climate change and ground based observation with high resolution satellite snow cover (MODIS) and precipitation products (CHIRPS). The study also provided reliable information about runoff from Hunza river catchment in response to changing climate. These results thus can be used to devise effective strategies for future sustainable water management in the region, while combating vulnerabilities against floods and water storage in downstream water reservoirs such as the Diamer-Basha dam. These findings also helps for the forecasting of seasonal flow in the region, and suggesting snow-cover as a possible predictor of climate change.
语种: 英语
内容类型: 学位论文
URI标识: http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14771
Appears in Collections:研究系统_荒漠环境研究室_学位论文

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作者单位: 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所

Recommended Citation:
GAREE KHAN. 气候变化对印度河上游流域水文水资源变化的影响,巴基斯坦[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学. 2017.
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