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新疆城市经济效率研究
李德山
学位类型博士
导师杨德刚
2017-05-01
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点新疆乌鲁木齐
学位专业理学博士
关键词城市 经济 效率 City Economy Efficiency
摘要在过去一段时间内,新疆城市经济保持了高速增长,取得显著成绩,已成为新疆区域经济发展的主导力量,但高速发展的同时带来过度的资源消耗和严重的环境污染,对经济可持续发展造成重要影响。在经济新常态下,新疆城市资源环境约束日益趋紧,传统经济增长动力逐渐减弱,原来的高速发展模式难以为继,亟需转变经济发展方式,实现从要素推动转向创新驱动,不断提升城市经济效率,促进新疆城市经济高质量增长,为实现新疆社会稳定和长治久安奠定坚实的物质基础。提升经济效率是城市经济社会发展的必然选择,也是促进城市可持续发展的重要途径,国内外学者从不同的角度对城市经济效率进行了评价,但多数以传统的投入和产出要素为基础评价城市经济效率,较少考虑到影响城市可持续发展的资源和环境要素,无法客观真实地反映城市经济效率。本文把资源环境要素纳入经济效率分析框架,运用非参数方法测量资源环境约束下的新疆城市经济效率,明确各城市的经济效率状态,分析各城市经济效率差异,总结城市经济效率时空演变特征,检验城市经济效率收敛性,识别城市经济效率的重要影响因素,提出改善新疆城市经济效率的建议。研究内容和主要结论如下:运用 SBM 模型(Slack Based Measure)和 ML 指数(Malmquist-LuenbergerIndex)分别评价新疆城市经济技术效率和经济全要素生产率,研究结果发现:(1)新疆城市经济技术效率平均值为 0.61,整体处于中等水平,要素投入和环境污染都造成效率损失,说明新疆城市经济发展是高投入、高消耗、高污染的粗放式发展方式,经济增长具有不可持续性。(2)新疆城市全要素生产率指数平均值为 0.98,年均增长率为-2%,呈微弱下降趋势,反映出科技创新和技术进步还没有成为新疆城市经济增长的主要动力,经济增长主要靠要素驱动和投资驱动,还没有转向创新驱动,经济增长质量不高。(3)城市经济效率存在显著区域差异和规模差异。天山北坡和天山南坡城市的经济技术效率和经济全要素生产率平均值都高于其它区域城市,大城市经济技术效率和经济全要素生产率平均值高于中小城市,说明新疆城市经济发展差距较大,存在不平衡、不协调问题。(4)随着时间的推移,新疆城市经济技术效率总体处于下降的变化趋势,出现平稳型、上升型、下降型和波动型四种演变类型,反映新疆城市经济发展出现“分化”现象。新疆城市经济全要素生产率呈现出明显的阶段性变化特征,总体表现为 “三起三落、两峰值”特点,其变化与国家经济环境、宏观政策走向紧密相连,反映新疆城市经济易受外在环境影响,经济增长不够稳定。(5)城市劳动力、资本要素投入过多,土地、水资源消耗过快,工业污染过度排放,都导致经济效率损失,影响整体经济效率,说明新疆城市在降低资源消耗、减少环境污染、提高要素生产率等方面有较大的改善潜力。根据收敛理论和方法,本文采用多种收敛方法对新疆城市经济效率进行全方位检验,分析在 2000-2015 年间新疆城市经济效率差距的现状和演变趋势。研究结果发现:(1)新疆城市经济效率不存在绝对收敛,意味着城市之间还没有出现追赶效应,城市经济效率差距会进一步扩大。然而,城市经济效率存在条件收敛,各个城市经济技术效率和全要素生产率趋向自身稳态的水平。(2)新疆城市经济技术效率不存在随机性收敛,表明着经济技术效率差距不会短期消失,而会长期客观存在。(3)新疆城市经济效率核密度分布分析发现,城市经济技术效率差距增大,城市经济全要素生产率出现两极分化现象。马尔科夫转移矩阵分析发现,新疆城市经济效率流动性较低,存在一定集聚现象,形成低经济效率、中低经济效率、中高经济效率和高经济效率的集聚现象。结果进一步说明新疆城市经济效率不存在收敛特征,城市经济效率无法实现协调发展。运用空间面板模型对城市经济效率影响因素进行计量检验,研究结果发现:(1)基础设施、城市化水平、产业结构、集聚程度对城市经济效率有显著的正向影响。说明完善的基础设施、较高的城市化水平、合理的产业结构都能够提升城市经济效率,促进城市经济发展。(2)开放水平对城市经济技术效率起着一定促进作用,但是对经济全要素生产率影响不显著。(3)人力资本和研发投入对城市经济技术效率和经济全要素生产率都没有产生显著影响,说明人力资本和研发投入还是新疆城市经济发展的短板,这两个因素还没有发挥重要作用。根据以上研究结果,本文提出了提升新疆城市经济效率的建议:完善基础设施,提升经济支撑能力;调整城市产业结构,促进结构优化升级;促进土地集约化利用,提升城市集聚水平;加快人口聚集,提高城市化水平;提高人力资本水平,提升城市竞争力;扩大开放度,建立开放型经济;加大研发投入,提高科技创新水平等。本文研究丰富和完善了城市经济效率研究内容,对定量评价资源环境约束下的城市经济效率提供了理论方法和分析框架,有助于客观真实地分析城市经济增长质量,对新疆城市转变经济增长方式,降低资源消耗,减少环境污染,提高经济效率,促进城市经济可持续发展等方面具有一定指导意义。
其他摘要In the past period of time, the urban economy, which maintained rapid growth and made remarkable achievement, has become the leading force for regional economic development in Xinjiang. However, with the rapid development of economy, it has brought about excessive consumption of resources and serious environmental pollution, which has a significant impact on sustainable development of the economy. Under the new economic normal, because the constraints of resources and environment are becoming increasingly tight and the traditional economic growth momentum gradually weakened, the rapid development of the original model is difficult to continue. It is urgent need to change the mode of economic development, from factor driven transfer innovation driven, and continuously enhance the urban economic efficiency and promote the high quality of urban economic growth in Xinjiang. Improveing economic efficiency is the inevitable choice of urban economic and social development, but also an important way to promote the sustainable development of urban economy. Domestic and foreign scholars have measured urban economic efficiency from different perspectives, trying to provide theoretical support for high-quality economic development of the city. However, most studies based on traditional input and output factors, less consideration to the impact of resources and environmental factors which affect urban economy sustainable development, this result can’t reflect the real economic efficiency of the city. In this paper, the resource and environmental factors are integrated into the analytical framework. The non-parametric method is used to measure the urban economic efficiency under the constraints of resource environment. It is aim to measure the urban economic efficiency, analyze difference of urban economic efficiency, discuss the convergence of urban economic efficiency, identify the important influencing factors of urban economic efficiency. At last, this study puts forward the suggestions to improve the economic efficiency of cities in Xinjiang. The research contents and main conclusions are as follows: The SBM directional distance function and Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index are applied to measure economic efficiency. The results showed that: The average technological efficiency of city is 0.61, which is in the middle level. The input factor and environmental pollution have caused the loss of efficiency. It suggests that urban economy is established on high investment, high in consumption, high pollution of extensive pattern of economic growth. (2) The average of total factor productivity index was 0.98, meaning the average annual growth rate was -2%. The result reflects that technological progress had not yet become the main driving force of economic growth. (3) There are significant regional and scale differences in urban economic efficiency. The average of cities on the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains are higher than other cities. The average value of economic efficiency in big cities is higher than in small and medium-sized cities. These results indicate that there is much difference in the economic development, with the imbalance and non-coordination prolem. (4) Over time, the technological efficiency of urban economy is generally declining, evolving into four types, such as steady type, rising type, decreasing type and fluctuation type, which reflect the phenomenon of "differentiation" urban economic development. The total factor productivity of urban economy shows obvious characteristics of stage change, which be summarized as "three ups and downs and two peaks". The change is closely related to the national economic environment and macroeconomic policy, which reflects that the urban economy is susceptible to external environmental impact. (5) The excessive investment of urban labor and capital, the excessive consumption of land and water resources and the excessive discharge of industrial pollution have caused the loss of economic efficiency. It is necessary to reduce resource consumption and environmental pollution to improve the productivity. According to the convergence theory and method, this paper adopts a variety of convergence methods to test the economic efficiency, and discusses the present gap situation and the evolution trend. The results show that: (1) There is no absolute convergence in the urban economic efficiency in Xinjiang between 2000 and 2015, which means that there is no catch-up effect between cities, and the economic efficiency gap will be further increased. However, there is a conditional convergence, meaning urban economic efficiency trend towards their own steady state. (2) Urban technological efficiency does not exist random convergence, technological efficiency gap will not disappear in the short term, but will exist for a long time. (3) According to the results of nuclear density distribution analysis, there is no convergence characteristic of urban economic efficiency in Xinjiang. Markovian transfer matrix analysis suggests that the mobility of urban economic efficiency is low. Besides, there is a certain gathering phenomenon, forming a low economic efficiency, low economic efficiency, high economic efficiency and high economic efficiency of the gathering phenomenon. The spatial panel model was used to measure the influencing factors of urban economic efficiency. The results showed that: (1) Infrastructure, urbanization level, industrial structure and agglomeration degree have significant positive effects on urban economic efficiency. It suggests that the perfect infrastructure, the higher level of urbanization and the reasonable industrial structure can enhance the economic efficiency. (2) The opening level plays a certain role in promoting the technological efficiency of the city, but it has no significant effect on the total factor productivity, which shows that the city's opening up does not bring significant technological progress. (3) Human capital and R & D investment have no significant impact on urban technological efficiency and total factor productivity, indicating that these two factors have not played an important role. According to the above research results, this paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the economic efficiency of the city in Xinjiang: (1) Perfect the infrastructure and enhance the economic support ability. (2) Adjust the urban industrial structure, promote the optimization and upgrading of the structure. (3) Promote the intensive use of the land, enhance the urban agglomeration level. (4)Improve the level of urbanization. (5) Improve the level of human capital, enhance the competitiveness of the city. (6) Expand openness, the establishment of an open economy. (7) Increase R&D investment, improve the level of scientific and technological innovation. This paper is the inheritance and development of the study on the economic efficiency, and consummates and enriches the theory of economic efficiency. It helps to evaluate the quality of urban economic growth objectively. The results have important theoretical and practical significance to reduce resource consumption and environmental pollution, and promote the sustainable development of urban economy.
学科领域人文地理学
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14784
专题研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
作者单位中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
李德山. 新疆城市经济效率研究[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2017.
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