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和田地区农业碳效应及农业碳汇补偿机制研究
熊传合
学位类型博士
导师杨德刚
2017-05-01
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点新疆乌鲁木齐
学位专业理学博士
关键词农业碳效应 农业碳汇补偿 减源増汇对策 和田地区 Agricultural Carbon Effects Agriculture Carbon Sinks Compensation Countermeasures To Promote Agricultural Carbon Emissions Reduction And Agricultural Carbon Sink Increase Hotan Prefecture
摘要温室气体排放引起的以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化已经极大的影响了世界人民的生产、生活,并且已经渐变为国际社会普遍关注的焦点。温室气体主要来自第二产业和第三产业,但快速发展的农业增加了温室气体的排放量,加速了气候变暖。虽然农业是碳源,但是农业能够固碳,具有强大的碳汇生态功能,碳减排潜力巨大。基于此,本文选择经济落后环境脆弱而且以农业经济为主导的和田地区为研究区,探讨农业碳效应,并尝试建立农业碳汇补偿机制,以期促进扶贫开发,增加农民收入,推动农业可持续发展,同时也为应对全球气候变化做出应有的贡献。本文主要研究内容与结论如下:(1)和田地区农业碳效应整体表现为正效应。在农业碳排放方面,本文从农业碳排放强度对和田地区、全疆、全国做了对比,结果显示中国的农业碳排放强度为 507.00 kg/万元 AGDP,新疆的农业碳排放强度为699.22 kg/万元 AGDP,和田地区农业碳排放强度为 1137.97kg/万元 AGDP,和田地区农业为高碳排农业,农业碳减排任务艰巨;本文运用脱钩理论探索了和田地区农业碳排放与农业经济增长之间的关系,从农业碳排放与农业经济增长的脱钩指数看,1999-2014 年经历了“脱钩—挂钩—脱钩”三种状态过程,通过对和田地区、全疆、全国的对比表明和田地区是一个在脱钩阶段上严重滞后于全国与全疆的地区;从农业碳排放驱动机理来看,农业劳动力、农业生产效率和农业经济是和田地区农业碳排放增加的主要因素,而农业结构因素在很大程度上抑制了和田地区农业碳排放。在农业碳汇方面,本文从碳汇水平对和田地区与全国进行了对比,全国的平均碳汇水平约为 4.14,而和田地区为 6.78,高出全国平均水平 63.60%,表明和田地区农业为高碳汇农业;农业碳汇的影响因素有农业有机肥、农作物产量、种植业生产结构、农业产业结构、土地利用方式和耕作制度等,影响和田地区农业碳汇的主要因素是农业产业结构,特别是特色林果业的发展,长期均衡分析表明特色林果业面积增加 1%,农业碳汇总量增加 0.4556%;本文采用净碳汇量乘以吨碳价格法来估算农业碳汇的经济效益,最终计算出 2014 年和田地区农业碳汇效益为 7.25 亿元,每亩耕地碳汇效益为 261.34 元。综合来看,一方面和田地区由于农业生产方式、技术落后,管理粗放,农业属于高碳排农业;另一方面,由于特色林果业的发展,农业碳汇水平高,农业碳汇生态功能明显,碳汇经济效益高,属于高碳汇农业。和田地区农业碳效应整体表现为正效应,减排増汇潜力巨大。(2)构建了和田地区农业净碳汇补偿机制和低碳模式下农业碳汇补偿机制。本文以和田地区农业碳效应整体表现为正效应为前提构建了包括补偿目标、补偿原则、利益相关者、补偿标准、补偿方式、补偿资源来源等六个方面的农业净碳汇补偿机制;基于和田地区农业属于高碳排农业,本文构建了包括化学品减量化、低碳耕作、秸秆还田、低碳养殖等低碳模式下农业碳汇补偿机制,制定了各低碳模式下的补偿标准,并对低碳模式下的政府补偿、市场补偿做了详细的介绍,特别的还对农业温室气体减排自愿交易案例进行了分析,表明开展农业温室气体自愿减排交易项目具有可行性,以期为和田地区开展低碳模式下的农业温室气体减排项目提供借鉴。(3)提出了推进和田地区农业减源増汇的对策建议。根据和田地区农业碳效应分析发现的问题,提出了针对和田地区人口、经济、科技、农业结构等八方面的农业碳减排的政策建议;同时,提出了包括法律、政策、保障体系等三个方面完善和田地区农业碳汇补偿机制的建议,其实这也是保障和田地区农业碳减排的政策建议顺利实施的建议。
其他摘要In recent years, global climate change has brought significant adverse effects on human society and economic development, and gradually become a global issue of universal concern in the international community. The second industry and the tertiary industry are the leading sectors of carbon emissions, but the rapid development of agriculture is also an important inducement to accelerate the warming of the climate. Although agriculture is one of the main sources of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on the earth, it also has a strong carbon sink function, which has great potential for greenhouse gas absorption. Based on this background, we chose Xinjiang’s Hotan prefecture as the study area in this study, which is a region with an under-developed economy, fragile environment and dominated by the agricultural economy, to explore the carbon effect of agriculture and establish the compensation mechanism of agricultural carbon sinks, so that we can promote poverty alleviation and development, increase the income of farmers, promote rapid rural economic development, encourage sustainable agricultural development and make due contribution to alleviating global climate change. The main contents and results of this research are as follows: (1) The overall effect of agricultural carbon effect was positive. In terms of agricultural carbon emissions, we made a comparison from the index of agricultural carbon emissions intensity in Hotan, Xinjiang and China, the results showed that China’s average agricultural carbon emissions intensity was 507.00 kg of agricultural carbon emissions generated per 10,000 CNY agricultural output value, Xinjiang’s average agricultural carbon emissions intensity was 699.22 kg of agricultural carbon emissions generated per 10,000 CNY agricultural output value and Hotan prefecture’s average agricultural carbon emissions intensity was 1137.97 kg of agricultural carbon emissions generated per 10,000 CNY agricultural output value, Hotan prefecture’s agriculture was a high carbon emissions agriculture and agricultural carbon emission reduction task was arduous. We applied decoupling relationship analysis to explore the relationship between C (agricultural carbon emissions) and AGDP (the agricultural economic growth), the results demonstrated that the decoupling index showed a "decoupling, hooking and decoupling" three state process during 1999-2014 and it was a serious lag on decoupling stage to the national and the region. Regarding the driving mechanism, the agricultural labor factor, agricultural efficiency factor, and agricultural economy factor were the main factors that increase agricultural carbon emissions in the Hotan prefecture, while, the agricultural production structure factor largely inhibited agricultural carbon emissions of the Hotan prefecture. In terms of agricultural carbon sinks, we made a comparison from the index of agricultural carbon sinks level in Hotan and China, the results showed that China’s average agricultural carbon sinks level was 4.14 and Hotan prefecture’s average agricultural carbon sinks level was 6.78, Hotan prefecture’s average agricultural carbon sinks level was 63.60% higher than the national average and Hotan prefecture’s agriculture is a high carbon sink agriculture. The influencing factors of agricultural carbon sink were organic fertilizer, crop yield, crop production structure, agricultural industrial structure, land use and tillage system, etc. The agricultural industrial structure factor (especially the development of characteristic forestry and fruit industry) was the main factor to increase the agricultural carbon sinks. The long-term equilibrium analysis results showed that the characteristic forestry and fruit industry area increased by 1%, the total agricultural carbon sinks increased 0.4556%. In this research, we determined the economic value of agricultural carbon sinks in Hotan prefecture based on multiplying the price per unit of carbon sinks by the net carbon sinks in the prefecture and we finally calculate the economic value of agricultural carbon sinks was 725 million yuan (about 261.34 yuan per mu ) in 2014. Taken together, on the one hand, due to the under-developed agricultural production mode, under-developed technology and extensive management, Hotan prefecture’s agriculture was high carbon emissions agriculture. On the other hand, with the development of characteristic forestry and fruit industry, Hotan prefecture had a higher agricultural carbon sinks level and higher agricultural carbon sinks economic value, Hotan prefecture’s agriculture was high carbon sinks agriculture. The overall effect of agricultural carbon effect was positive and the potential for increasing agricultural carbon sinks was huge in Hotan prefecture. (2) The compensation mechanism of agricultural net carbon sinks and the compensation mechanism of agricultural carbon sinks under the low carbon model were constructed. We established the ecological compensation mechanism of agricultural net carbon sinks from the aspects of compensation target, the main body of compensation, compensation principle, compensation method, compensation standard, and compensation resources within the premise that the overall effect of agricultural carbon effect was positive in Hotan prefecture. Based on that Hotan prefecture’s agriculture was high carbon emissions agriculture, we set up the compensation mechanism of agricultural carbon sinks under the low carbon model, which included agricultural chemicals reduction, low-carbon tillage, straw returning and low carbon breeding. We had formulated the compensation standard in the compensation mechanism of agricultural carbon sinks under the low carbon model, and introduced the government compensation and market compensation in the low carbon mode briefly. In particularly, we analyzed the case of voluntary emission reduction of agricultural greenhouse gases, which showed that it was feasible to carry out voluntary emission reduction projects of agricultural greenhouse gases, so that we provided references for the development of low-carbon agricultural greenhouse gas emission reduction projects in Hotan prefecture. (3) Countermeasures to promote agricultural carbon emissions reduction and agricultural carbon sink increase in Hotan prefecture were put forward. We found a lot of problems according to the analysis of agricultural carbon effect and we proposed eight policy recommendations to promote agricultural carbon emissions reduction including population, agricultural economy, agricultural science and technology, agricultural structure, etc. At the same time, we put forward some suggestions to perfect the compensation mechanism of agricultural carbon sinks in Hotan prefecture, including three aspects: law, policy and security system, which were also the guarantee of successful implementation of the countermeasures to promote agricultural carbon emissions reduction in Hotan prefecture.
学科领域人文地理学
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14792
专题研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
研究系统_空间对地观测与系统模拟研究室
作者单位中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
熊传合. 和田地区农业碳效应及农业碳汇补偿机制研究[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2017.
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