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不同寄主来源的棉铃虫种群发生和交配过程模型模拟
顾世民
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor吕昭智
2017-05-01
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral新疆乌鲁木齐
Degree Discipline理学硕士
Keyword棉铃虫 种群动态 DYMEX 有效交配 庇护所优化 Helicoverpa armigera population dynamics DYMEX effectiveness m ating refuge optimization
Abstract“Refuge” strategy was widely used in Xinjiang to delay the resistance problem of Helicoverpa armigera. The basis of successfully using this strategy is to take some suitable optimizing measures for refuges in some time. Population dynamics from different host plants and critical affecting factors in different periods, and the ranges of effective mating frequency are still lack of further and systematic study, which are even so important for the refuge optimization. In this study, through the laboratory experiments, isotope techniques and population modelling simulations, the field population dynamics and mating processes were simulated to determine key factor(s)affected population dynamics and ranges of effectiveness mating frequency of cotton bollworm from different host sources, and the goal is providing some useful suggestions for refuge optimization. Some of main results are as follows:(1) Mating frequencies of Helicoverpa armigera with different physiological ages Combinations of adults population mating with different ages were made and the experiments results found that the females in random mating was a determined role influencing mating frequencies. Mating frequencies of the 0-2 instars’ female were generally higher than others, and the average mating ratios were more than 60%; The females still had high potential mating abilities when ages were less than 5 instars, and average ratios exceeded 20% comapring to the females with 5~8 instars; In this study, the influence of the males' age was not significant in the mating frequency. (2) Modelling Simulations of Helicoverpa armigera using DYMEX and contributions analyses of key factors Establish DYMEX model could accurately simulate the field population dynamics of cotton bollworm(R2>0.4,P<0.05). The effects of pesticides and natural enemies units in controlling the pest and contribution rates of interpreting variations of population dynamics were analyzed. The pesticide spraying events in controlling the first and second generations of eggs and larvae were pronounced, and average variation accounted for about 40%, but contribution rates of explaining population changed were declined when the third time pesticide spraying events happened; the effects of natural enemies in affecting the population decline rates were relatively stable, and the average contribution rates functioned by parasitoid and predator enemies units were 27% and 17%, respectively; The effects of interactions (insecticides and natural enemies) in negative affecting the eggs and larvae population, which trended to shrink in interpreting variations of population dynamics, except the first generations.(3) Mating process of cotton bollworm from different host sources Based on the isotope data, the population dynamics of cotton bollworm from different host plants were analyzed, which was also used to valid the simulating results. And there were generally consistency between the isotope and simulations results. According to the mating frequencies experiments’ results of cotton bollworm and the proportion dynamics of population from different host plants, the theoretical mating frequencies were calculated and ranged from 0.2 to 0.51 happened among different pest sources mating. The changing rates of mating frequencies with time were estimated. Different patterns of refuges had been simulated to know how it affected the mating frequencies, and found that the refuge size (able to supply C4 sources population) and synchronism between C3 and C4 in emerging adults for mating.(4) Simulating resistance management affected by changes of effectiveness mating frequencies Host transfer affected mating frequencies significantly when the mating processes happened between different pest sources in landscape scale, and the phenology and population density were important. And the simulations indicated that the effectiveness mating frequency ranged from 0.1 to 0.37. For the relationship between population dynamics and mating processes,, the timing of mating sooner or later would affected the population growth, and population growth rate would be decreased with the gap of adults peak periods increasing. The proportions of each kind of genotype had been calculated and their changes simulated. And the patterns of refuge such as the areas and distributions needed to consider the planting proportions and spatial layout of Bt cotton.So far, the established DYMEX model could simulate the field population dynamics under complicated conditions, which was useful for the comprehensive management, agricultural production activities and et al. Understanding mating processes of cotton bollworm was a good way of “Refuge” optimization. Mating processes happened among different pest sources were known after simulations under different “Refuge” modes, theoretically understanding the field resistance of cotton bollworm population dynamic of mating and evolutionary processes.Above all, this research solved the problem of determining effectiveness mating frequency ranges, which can optimize the establishment of “Refuge” in the future.And this also a valued job in providing some management references of delaying resistance and prolong the service life of Bt cotton.
Other Abstract“庇护所”策略在延缓棉铃虫抗性上升的问题中,动态地合理优化“庇护所”是保证抗性管理的基础。其中,不同来源棉铃虫种群动态、关键影响因素和有效交配的频率范围确定对其合理优化具有重要指导意义,但至今仍然缺乏深入、系统的研究。因此,本文通过室内棉铃虫交配实验、同位素技术和种群动态建模,模拟自然种群动态和交配过程从而确定影响不同寄主来源的棉铃虫种群动态的关键因素和估计有效交配频率范围,为庇护所的合理优化提供理论参考。具体结果如下:(1)不同日龄棉铃虫成虫交配的特征人工饲料饲养的棉铃虫种群内,不同成虫日龄组合的交配实验结果表明,棉铃虫雌性成虫在随机交配中对不同日龄间交配频率的影响具有决定性作用。0~2日龄期的雌性棉铃虫成虫的交配频率普遍较高,平均水平在 60%以上;小于 5日龄的棉铃虫雌性成虫较 5~8 日龄雌性成虫的交配频率,平均高出 20%左右;在本研究中,雄性成虫对交配频率的影响不显著。(2)田间棉铃虫 DYMEX 模型模拟与因素效能分析建立的棉铃虫 DYMEX 模型能较高精度地模拟田间棉铃虫的种群发生过程(R2>0.4,P<0.05)。杀虫剂和天敌对棉铃虫的控制作用对各代棉铃虫种群动态变异贡献率分析,第一次和第二次杀虫剂的喷洒,对卵和幼虫影响显著,平均变异贡献率为 40%左右,但第三次杀虫剂对第三代卵和幼虫变异的贡献率下降;天敌对棉铃虫各代虫口减退的贡献率较为稳定,捕食性和寄生性天敌的平均贡献率分别为 27%和 17%;杀虫剂和天敌交互影响后,其对各代卵和幼虫减退的贡献率均呈下降趋势。(3)不同寄主来源棉铃虫交配过程依据同位素虫源分析数据中不同来源棉铃虫种群动态的变化,利用建立的DYMEX 模型进行模拟并校验,发现模拟的田间不同寄主来源种群的动态过程与调查分析结果基本趋势一致。结合不同日龄棉铃虫的交配频率实验结果,计算了不同寄主来源棉铃虫的理论交配频率范围平均为 0.2~0.51 之间,并估计了各代不同寄主棉铃虫的间相遇交配的频率随时间的变化量。场景模拟了不同庇护所模式对交配频率的影响,发现不同寄主来源棉铃虫的相遇期和发生量均对交配频率范围有显著影响,体现在对各来源雌性成虫的龄期和种群相对密度影响的交配类型比例对同源和非同源交配频率的影响。(4)模拟有效交配频率的变化对抗性管理的影响考虑景观尺度棉铃虫的寄主间转移对棉铃虫同源或非同源的交配频率分析,棉铃虫的有效交配频率是受到发生期和种群密度的影响,模拟发现 C3 来源和 C4来源棉铃虫的交配频率的理论平均范围为 0.1~0.37,交配期的早晚对棉铃虫种群的增长会产生影响,随着各来源的成虫交配高峰期相差天数增加,棉铃虫种群增长率呈下降趋势。模型模拟不同基因型个体在各代同生群中比例的变化情况,并且计算了同生群种群相对数量的变化过程,确定了庇护所作物在发挥稀释抗性基因频率中,需要结合 Bt 棉的种植比例和分布类型,确定庇护所作物的种植面积和布局。因此,建立的棉铃虫 DYMEX 模型,可模拟田间复杂条件下的种群发生过程,对有害生物综合防控和农业生产活动方面产生积极作用。针对模型模拟不同庇护所模式下,不同寄主来源棉铃虫种群交配情况,理论上认识了田间棉铃虫种群交配动态,对庇护所开展合理布局提供思路。本研究通过对不同寄主来源棉铃虫的种群发生过程模拟、关键影响因素的效能分析和理论估计了有效交配频率范围,将有助于指导复杂生境下的棉铃虫种群发生防控;明确棉铃虫交配过程将有利于优化庇护所的建立,可为今后延缓棉铃虫抗性上升,延长 Bt 棉使用寿命方面提供参考。
Subject Area生态学
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14872
Collection研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
顾世民. 不同寄主来源的棉铃虫种群发生和交配过程模型模拟[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2017.
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