KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 基于互补相关理论的塔里木河流域实际蒸散发演变及预估 | |
| 蹇东南 | |
| Subtype | 硕士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 苏布达 ; 赵成义 |
| 2017-05-01 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 新疆乌鲁木齐 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学硕士 |
| Keyword | 实际蒸散发 互补相关理论 全球升温 1.5℃和 2℃ CCLM 区域气候模式 塔里木河流域 Actual Evapotranspiration Complementary relationship Global warming Regional climate model COSMO-CLM Tarim River Basin |
| Abstract | Evapotranspiration, which links atmospheric processes in the climate system, is an important process in the hydrological cycle that contributes to the energy balance of the Earth’s surface. In the current study, daily observed data from 46 meteorological stations in the Tarim River Basin that covered the period from 1961 to 2014 was used. The hydrological data in this study included streamflow from a total of six hydrological stations in the Aksu and Hotan River basin. Annual data were available for the period from 1961 to 2011 for the Aksu River basin and from 1961 to 2000 for the Hotan River basin. Outputs from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) for the Tarim River Basin were used to calculate future actual evapotranspiration. The advection-aridity model was used to calculate actual evapotranspiration to analyzed temporal and spatial variations in actual evapotranspiration and the impact factors of actual evapotranspiration were identified. Moreover, changes in the actual evapotranspiration for global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C using an advection-aridity model based on outputs from the CCLM regional climate model were examined. The following main conclusions were arrived. The water balance method for closed river basins was used to calculate the annual actual evapotranspiration, and the Penman equation was used to calculate the annual potential evapotranspiration. There was good complementary behavior between actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration in the Tarim River Basin. Based on the water balance, parameter α for advection-aridity model was calibrated and α values were between 0.945 and 0.994. The advection-aridity (AA) model was used to calculate actual evapotranspiration at each station to facilitate examination of the temporal and spatial variations in actual evapotranspiration. The multi-year average actual evapotranspiration in the Tarim River Basin was about 212.7 mm. The actual evapotranspiration in the basin showed a significant increasing trendfor the period from 1961 to 1996, and a sharp declining trend for the period from 1996 to 2014. There was an overall significant increasing trendfor the period from 1961 to 2014. An abrupt change in the time series of actual evapotranspiration was detected in 1980. The seasonal actual evapotranspiration showed consistent increases from 1961 until the 2014. Over the analysis period, the seasonally averaged actual evapotranspiration was highest in summer (155.2mm), followed by spring (50.4mm), autumn (26.0mm) and winter (3.1mm). The annual and seasonal values of the actual evapotranspiration were higher in the 1990s and the period from 2000 to 2014, and the actual evapotranspiration was relatively low in the 1960s and 1970s. The actual evapotranspiration values were higher in the northeast, northwest and southwest of the Tarim River Basin than in the central and southeastern areas. In these regions, the annual actual evapotranspiration is mainly greater than 250 mm, the spring actual evapotranspiration is mainly greater than 70 mm, the summer actual evapotranspiration is basically greater than 160 mm, the autumn actual evapotranspiration is basically greater than 40 mm and the winter actual evapotranspiration is greater than 5mm. The actual evapotranspiration values in the desert lands in the central, southwestern and northern Tarim River Basin were relatively low. A large part of this area had an annual actual evapotranspiration of less than or equal to 150 mm. The spring, summer, autumn and winter actual evapotranspiration values were less than 18.4, 40.5, 3.2 and 3mm , respectively. High actual evapotranspiration values were mainly confined to the Weigan, Kashgar, Yarkant, and Hotan River basins, while the ETa values were relative low in the Taklimakan Desert, Keriya and Cheerchen River Basin. The seasonal variations are similar to the annual variations, in that the actual evapotranspiration was increasing in most areas. The Aksu River is the main supply to the Tarim River. We therefore used it as example to assess the correlation between actual evapotranspiration and surface water supply (runoff and precipitation). The surface water supply in the Aksu River Basin increased significantly from 1961 to 2011, and was similar to the trends of actual evapotranspiration the in the Tarim River Basin and the actual evapotranspiration and the surface water supply (runoff and precipitation) are closely correlated. The energy budget (indicated by net radiation) seemed to have a minimal influence on actual evapotranspiration in the Tarim River Basin; however, the advection budget (indicated by dry power of the air) played an important role. It shown that the CCLM can simulate the increasing trend of actual evapotranspiration and average actual evapotranspiration for Tarim River Basin. Comparison of warming at the global and regional scale showed that regional 1.5 °C warming would occur later than the global average, while regional 2 °C warming would occur earlier than the global average. For global warming of 1.5 °C, the average actual evapotranspiration in the Tarim River Basin is about 222.7 mm annually, which represents an increase of 6.9 mm relative to the reference period (1986–2005), with obvious increases projected for spring and summer. The greatest increases in actual evapotranspiration were projected for the northeast and southwest. The increment in the annual actual evapotranspiration across the Tarim River Basin considering a warming of 1.5 °C was 38.4% (4.3 mm) less than that for a warming of 2°C, and the reduction between the two levels of warming was most pronounced in the summer, when actual evapotranspiration was 77.3% (3.4 mm) smaller. The reduction in the increment of annual actual evapotranspiration for warming of 1.5 °C relative to warming of 2 °C was most pronounced in the southwest and northeast, where it was projected to be 43.8% (8.2 mm) and 42.2% (9.3 mm) smaller, respectively. The results of this study are therefore particularly relevant for water resource planning in the Tarim River Basin. |
| Other Abstract | 蒸散发是水循环的一个重要过程，是联络能量收支的纽带，对地表能量起着重要 的作用。本文所采用的数据为 1961-2014 年塔里木河流域 46 个气象站点逐日气象数 据、阿克苏河流域（1961-2011 年）与和田河流域（1961-2000 年）6 个水文站径流数 据以及高精度区域气候模式 CCLM 输出数据，采用基于互补相关理论的平流-干旱模 型（advection-aridity model，AA 模型），计算塔里木河流域实际蒸散发（ETa），分析 实际蒸散发演变特征，研究实际蒸散发与下垫面供水及气象要素的关系，探讨塔里木 河流域实际蒸散发变化的可能原因，并对全球升温 1.5℃和 2℃时的实际蒸散发进行 预估，结果表明： 塔里木河流域实际蒸散发和潜在蒸散发之间存在良好的互补相关关系。采用闭合 流域水量平衡方法计算的实际蒸散发结果对 AA 模型参数在塔里木河 2 个子流域进行 率定，AA 模型参数 α 范围在 0.945-0.994 之间。 AA 模型计算的塔里木河流域实际蒸散发结果表明，1961-2014 年实际蒸散发显 著增加，流域多年实际蒸散发平均值为 212.7mm。以 1996 年为转折点，实际蒸散发 呈先增加后减少、总体增加的趋势。MK 突变检验表明实际蒸散发在 1980 年发生突 变。季节上，春季、夏季、秋季和冬季实际蒸散发均表现为增加的趋势，夏季实际蒸 散发多年平均值为 155.2mm，春季为 50.4mm，秋季为 26.0mm，冬季仅 3.1mm。年 和季节实际蒸散发在 1990s 和 2000s 较高，在 1960s 以及 1970s 较低。实际蒸散发在 塔里木河流域流域北部、西部及西南部地区较高，该区域年均值达 250mm 以上，春 季达 70mm 以上，夏季达 160mm 以上，秋季高于 40mm，冬季高于 5mm。流域东南 部的下游地区和东北地区实际蒸散发偏低，年平均实际蒸散发不足 150mm，春季不 足 18.4mm，夏季不足 40.5mm；秋季不足 3.2mm。冬季大部分地区不足 3mm。子流 域分布上，叶尔羌河流域、和田河流域、渭干河流域、喀什噶尔河流域实际蒸散发较 高，而塔克拉玛干沙漠、克里雅河流域和车尔臣河流域子流的实际蒸散发较低。MK 趋势检验分析发现，流域大部分地区实际蒸散发都表现为显著增加的趋势。 对实际蒸散发与下垫面供水（径流与降水）做相关系分析表明，1961-2011 年， 阿克苏河流域实际蒸散发和下垫面供水都表现为增加趋势，具有良好的相关性，且均在 1996-1998 年发生转折，表明实际蒸散发的变化与下垫面供水有密切的联系。气象 要素中，干燥力对实际蒸散发的影响大于净辐射对实际蒸散发的影响。 COSMO-CLM（CCLM）区域气候模式输出数据计算的实际蒸散发与观测数据计 算的实际蒸散发对比分析表明，CCLM 基本可以模拟塔里木河流域实际蒸散发的增加 趋势和多年平均蒸散发状况。全球升温 1.5℃（2020-2039 年）时，塔里木河流域大部 分区域温升小于 1.5℃。全球升温 2℃（2040-2059 年）时，大部分区域温升大于 2℃。 总体上，塔里木河流域升温在西部较快。在全球升温 1.5℃情景下，塔里木河流域实 际蒸散发流域平均值为 222.7mm，相比基准期 1986-2005 年增加 6.9mm，春季和夏季 增加较多。增加最多的区域为流域的东北部和西南部。全球升温 1.5℃时，实际蒸散 发相对基准期的增加量比全球升温 2℃时的增加量少 38.4%，尤其是在夏季最为明显， 减少了77.3%（3.4 mm）。区域上，实际蒸散发在全球升温1.5℃时相对基准期1986-2005 年的增量相比 2℃时在东北部和西南部减少较为明显，东北部和西南部分别减少 43.8% （8.2 mm）和 42.2%（9.3 mm）。 |
| Subject Area | 自然地理学 |
| Language | 中文 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14877 |
| Collection | 研究系统_荒漠环境研究室 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 蹇东南. 基于互补相关理论的塔里木河流域实际蒸散发演变及预估[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2017. |
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