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和田地区人口发展变化特征及其对区域发展的影响研究
马淑燕
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor杨德刚
2017-05-01
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral新疆乌鲁木齐
Degree Discipline理学硕士
Keyword人口发展 人口红利 人口影响 和田 Population development Demographic dividend Population effect Hotan
AbstractPopulation-related issues such as population growth, population structure,population development, demographic dividend and fertility policy have always beenissues in which community are interested and they are the focus for academicresearchers as well as. In recent years, the average growth rate of population in Chinahas been declining continuously, and the main contradiction of population haschanged from excessive growth to disappearing population bonus, low fertility andpopulation aging and so on. Affected by policies and the level of economicdevelopment, population problems in the minority areas such as Hotan were quitedifferent from those in most parts of the country, where population growth was stillfast, the age structure of the population, education structure and employment structureand so on were also unique. The contradiction between population and economicdevelopment and resources and environment was prominent. Population problem hasalways been one of the key problems that restrict their economic development.Population development was not only the condition of economic development, butalso the purpose of it. Therefore, it was of great significance to study the populationdevelopment in Hotan and explore its impact on regional development in thebackground of the implementation of The Belt and Road strategic and comprehensivetwo child policy. This article took Hotan's population as the research object. First, it introduced thebackground and significance of the topic, domestic and international populationresearch, the main research contents, the research methods and thesis framework.Second, it described and analyzed the condition and characteristics of populationdevelopment in hotan since the founding of China. Next, it built index system ofpopulation development level and had a quantitative analysis of populationdevelopment in hotan by entropy method. Then, it predicted the population growthtrend in hotan in 2010-2050. Based on the above study, it analyzed the relationshipsbetween population growth and economic development and resource environment. The main conclusions are as follows. First, the population in hotan had been growing fast and the natural growth ratefluctuated with the change of time. The age structure of the population changed fromyoung to adult, the gender structure was reasonable, the ethnic structure was single,the level of education structure, employment structure, urban and the rural structurewas low. Restricted by natural and economic conditions, population distributionvaried greatly in this region. What’s more, the land population density was low andthe oasis population density was very high. Second, the population development level and each subsystem of populationdevelopment showed a rising trend in Hotan on the whole. There was big differencebetween population development level in different counties and it was decreasing.Each subsystem of population development also showed a rising trend in every county.Subsystem of population development was unbalanced in the same county. Third, future population would change big in hotan and the natural growth ratewould decrease; Labor force would be rich and demographic dividend period wouldlast for a long time; age structure of the population would change from adulthood toold age and the population aging would be increasing. Fourth, the economy development gap existed in the whole xinjiang and withinthe region and was large. Population growth had a large influence on economicdevelopment in hotan. From the perspective of demographic dividend, populationresources were not fully utilized. It’s not adequate to realize the demographicdividend. What’s more, the faster the population grew, the greater the pressure oneconomic development. With the increase of population, pressure on Hotan's waterresources and land resources was relatively large and there would be a serious threatto food security.
Other Abstract人口增长、人口结构、人口发展、人口红利、生育政策等人口相关问题一直是社会各界关心和关注的问题,同时也是学术界研究的热点。近年来,我国人口平均增长速度不断下降,人口的主要矛盾已经由增长过快变成了人口红利面临消失、生育率持续走低、人口老龄化等问题。以和田地区为代表的少数民族地区受政策及经济发展水平的影响,人口问题与全国多数地区存在较大差异——人口增长仍然较快,人口年龄结构、教育结构、就业结构等具有独特性,人口与经济发展及资源环境的矛盾比较突出,人口问题一直是制约其区域发展的关键问题之一。人口发展既是经济发展的条件,又是经济发展的目的,因此,在一带一路战略及全面二孩政策提出背景下,对和田地区人口发展进行研究,探究其对区域发展的影响,意义尤为重要。论文对和田人口进行了研究,首先论述了选题背景及意义、国内外人口研究现状、主要研究内容、研究方法和论文框架。其次,总结和田地区人口状况;建立了人口发展指标体系,利用熵值法对和田地区人口发展水平进行了量化分析;运用国际人口预测软件预测了和田地区未来人口增长。最后,对和田地区人口增长与经济发展、资源环境的关系进行了分析。主要结论包括:一、和田地区的人口数量增长很快,自然增长率呈现波动变化;人口年龄结构由年轻型变为成年型,性别结构合理,民族结构单一,教育结构、就业结构、城乡结构水平低;受自然因素与经济发展状况制约,各县市人口分布差异较大,国土人口密度较低、绿洲人口密度很高。二、总体上和田地区人口发展综合水平及各子系统发展水平都呈现不断提高的趋势;各县市的人口发展综合水平也呈现上升趋势但不同县市间的发展水平差异较大,随着时间的变化差异在不断缩小;各县市的各子系统得分呈现增长的趋势;同一县市的人口发展子系统发展水平具有很大的差异性。三、和田地区未来人口总量变化较大,自然增长率降低;劳动力丰富,人口红利持续期较长;人口年龄结构由成年型变为老年型,老龄化不断加剧。四、在全疆以及地区内部和田地区的经济水平均存在发展差异问题,且差异较大;人口增长对和田地区经济的发展具有较大的影响,但从人口红利角度分析,其实现条件不充分,人口红利对经济增长发挥的作用不高;未来人口增长越快,对经济发展的压力越大;人口快速增长会对水资源和土地资源产生很大压力,对粮食安全威胁较大。
Subject Area人文地理学
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14890
Collection研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
马淑燕. 和田地区人口发展变化特征及其对区域发展的影响研究[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2017.
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