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能源与环境约束下的新疆经济增长效率估算及其驱动因素研究
王兴民
学位类型硕士
导师王强 ; 杨德刚
2017-05-01
学位授予单位中国科学院大学
学位授予地点新疆乌鲁木齐
学位专业理学硕士
关键词经济增长源泉 制度变迁 技术进步 能源与环境约束 新疆 the source of economic growth institutional change technological progress constraints of energy and environmental Xinjiang
摘要Research on the source of economic growth is one of the key issues in the studyof macro economics and regional sustainable development. Total factor productivity isan important tool to analyze the source of economic growth, and the result of which isan important basis for the government to formulate long-term economic growth policy.Meanwhile, total factor productivity is an important index to measure the quality ofeconomic growth of a country or a region, and it is also one of the important goals ofeconomic growth. With China’s economy entered the new normal period, andeconomic policy adjustment and industrial restructuring, it will become an importantissue to improve its own economic growth for Xinjiang about how to achievesustainable development under the constraints of energy and environment.This study estimates the efficiency of economic growth under the constraints ofenergy and environment, and analysis of the source of economic growth in Xinjiangby means of econometric methods. The main contents of the research include: Basedon the relevant data of Xinjiang, (1) By the grey relational analysis model, the paperanalyzes the correlation between industrial energy consumption and economic growth,as well as between energy consumption categories and economic growth in Xinjiang.(2) To confirm the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) in Xinjiang,and to analyze the interactive relationship between environmental governance andeconomic growth. (3) By constructing a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model tomeasure the economic growth efficiency of Xinjiang, which includes energy input andnon expected output. (4) Using Solow residual method to estimate the total factorproductivity of Xinjiang, and explore the source of economic growth in Xinjiang.Above research shows: Firstly, the economic growth of Xinjiang is driven byfactors, which has strong dependence on capital, labor and energy,and there is acertain degree of irrational on energy consumption structure. Secondly, theenvironmental quality of Xinjiang is still declining, which has a certain distance to achieve EKC inflection point; meanwhile the main source of pollution is the primaryindustry and the second industry, and there is a mutual promotion between the thirdindustries and the environment. Thirdly, the economic growth of Xinjiang is facingthe dilemma of low efficiency and three structural shocks. Fourthly, the total factorproductivity of Xinjiang has a strong accumulation and path dependence. Technologytransfer and transformation are the main reasons for the change of total factorproductivity, while the impact of institutional improvement and the development ofindependent research on the total factor productivity of Xinjiang is not obvious.Fifthly, the institutional development of Xinjiang is not complete, there are manyfactors that hinder the optimal allocation of production factors, and the R&Dinvestment of Xinjiang is low, which has not yet formed a scale effect.Therefore, in the future, Xinjiang should increase investment in the environment,science and technology, education and human capital, and improve the efficiency ofenergy utilization and energy consumption structure, at the same time, effective fiscaland tax policies should be adopted to promote dynamic transformation of economicgrowth and transformation and upgrading of industrial structure, in order to realizingthe coordinated and sustainable development of economy, energy and environment inXinjiang.
其他摘要经济增长源泉分析是宏观经济学与区域可持续发展研究的核心问题之一。全要素生产率是分析经济增长源泉的基本方法,其分析结论可以作为一个国家或地区制定长期经济增长政策的重要基础依据。同时,全要素生产率是衡量一个国家或地区经济发展质量的重要指标,也是经济增长本身追求的重要目标之一。随着中国经济步入“新常态”发展,以及国家经济政策调整和产业结构转型,就如何实现在能源与环境约束下的可持续发展,将成为未来新疆提高自身经济增长质量所面临的一个重要课题。本文通过经济计量方法,开展在能源与环境约束下的新疆经济增长效率估算和经济增长源泉分析。研究的主要内容有:基于新疆有关数据,(1)运用灰色关联分析,分别对新疆各产业能源消费和能源消费种类与经济增长的相关性进行计量分析。(2)检验新疆环境库兹涅茨(EKC)曲线的存在性,并对环境治理强度与经济增长之间的互动关系进行计量分析。(3)通过构建包含能源投入与非期望产出的数据包络分析(DEA)模型,测算新疆的经济增长效率。(4)通过索洛残差法,估算得到新疆全要素生产率,并构建模型对新疆全要素生产率进一步分解,最终实现对新疆经济增长驱动因素的探索分析。通过以上研究表明:第一,新疆的经济增长属于要素驱动型的经济增长,对资本、劳动力与能源的依赖性较强;且能源消费结构存在一定程度的不合理。第二,新疆的环境质量仍呈不断下降趋势,距离实现 EKC 拐点有一定的距离;同时,第一产业和第二产业是新疆污染物的主要污染来源,而第三产业与环境之间存在相互促进作用。第三,新疆的经济增长面临低效率和三重“结构性冲击”转型困境。第四,新疆全要素生产率的变化具有很强的累积性和路径依赖性,其中技术转移和转化是新疆全要素生产率变化的主要原因,而制度进步和自主研发对新疆全要素生产率变化的影响不明显。第五,新疆制度发育尚不完全,阻碍生产要素优化配置的因素很多,且新疆 R&D 经费投入偏低,尚未形成规模效应。因此,新疆未来应该加大对环境保护、科技研发、教育和人力资本的投入,提高能源的利用效率,改善能源消费结构,并通过有效的财政与税收政策促进经济增长动力转换和产业结构转型升级,最新实现新疆经济-能源-环境的协调和可持续发展。
学科领域环境科学
语种中文
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14903
专题研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
作者单位中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
第一作者单位中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
推荐引用方式
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王兴民. 能源与环境约束下的新疆经济增长效率估算及其驱动因素研究[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2017.
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