KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 准噶尔盆地南缘植被动态变化及驱动因素研究 | |
| 罗青红 | |
| Subtype | 博士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 赵成义 |
| 2018-06-05 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 新疆乌鲁木齐 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学博士 |
| Keyword | 植被 动态 驱动因子 准噶尔盆地 vegetation dynamic driving-factor Junggar Basin |
| Abstract | 准噶尔盆地位于欧亚大陆腹地，气候和环境变化既具有全球的共性，又具区域特性。气候变化过程中，因其下垫面植被性质敏感，而首先得到响应。同时，区域内农业生产水平的提高、城镇化进程的加快，生态环境保护工程的落实等，促使土地利用格局发生了较大变化，地面植被覆盖状况及生态系统的结构与功能亦改变。本研究基于野外观测数据及新一代 GIMMS NDVI 数据，分析准噶尔盆地南缘不同时间(月、季、年)、空间(种群、群落、景观、区域)尺度上植被的动态变化；阐述植被变化与气候、基质、水资源利用、LUCC 和人类活动等影响因子的相互关系，量化气候及人类活动对植被变化的贡献，并提出植被保护及优化管理途径。主要结论如下：（1）1982～2013年研究区植被多年平均NDVI为0.18，覆盖度为23.08%。32年中，植被覆盖度改善的区域占研究区总面积的53.43%，退化区域占27.09%，稳定区域占19.48%，植被整体状况好转。覆盖度＞40%的植被面积增速最快，覆盖度为10%～20%的植被面积降速最快。研究区植被的覆盖度经向地带性特征显著(R2=0.69，P＜0.001)，自西向东变化速率为0.3/10°N。研究区植被景观Hurst稳定性指数值为0.70，表明植被覆盖度保持稳定的持续性能力较强。2000～2010年间，植被覆盖度出现了由中级(覆盖度为20%～30%)向两个极端(覆盖度＜10%的I级和覆盖度＞40%的V级)发展的趋势。（2）1990～2000 年覆盖度正向增大和负向减小的植被面积分别占研究区植被总面积的 14.00%和 10.29%，2000～2010 年分别占 11.16%和 7.89%。1990 年～2010 年期间，郁闭度＜30%的疏林地及覆盖度为 5%～20%的草地面积不断减少；低覆盖草地从 1990 年的 2.82×106hm2 减少至 2010 年的 2.58×106hm2；中、高覆盖草地斑块的数量明显增多。马尔科夫模型预测结果表明植被类型转移概率在未来 15a 内趋于稳定，同时郁闭度＞40%的灌木林面积将逐渐减少，未来 15 年研究区整体生态环境状况依然很严峻。（3）7～42 龄人工梭梭林中，17 龄林更新状况最好，更新层个体密度达2.25×104 株·hm-2，且 29.29%的是株高≥50cm 的小树，平均株高和基径为 1.1m和 1.9cm。33 龄林中小树数量占更新层个体总数的 40.28%，平均株高和基径为1.0m 和 0.5cm。人工林土壤—植被系统耦合度排序为：33 龄林＞23 龄林＞42 龄林＞20 龄林＞17 龄林＞28 龄林＞12 龄林＞15 龄林＞7 龄林；耦合协调度排序为：28 龄林＞42 龄林＞20 龄林＞17 龄林＞33 龄林＞12 龄林＞23 龄林＞15 龄林＞7龄林，7～42 龄人工梭梭林始终停留在失调衰退期，植被与土壤均处于损益状态，只是随着林龄的增大系统损益的程度有所降低。（4）1982～2013 年研究区平均气温为 6.39℃，降水量为 215.79mm，且二者以每 10 年 0.4℃和 9.68mm 的增幅变化，增温效果主要表现在春秋季节，增湿效果主要表现在春冬季节。1982～2013 年，研究区植被覆盖度与上一年、当年年均气温相关系数分别为 0.178(P＞0.05)和 0.075(P＞0.05)，而与上一年、当年的年降水量之间的相关系数分别 0.200(P＞0.05)为 0.055(P＜0.01)。植被覆盖度与气候因子的回归方程为：Yi=15.36+0.04X1i+0.11X2i(p=0.028)(式中：X1i 为降水，X2i 为气温)。经计算，2000～2013 年间，研究区人类活动对植被覆盖变化的贡献率为48.49%，而以降水、气温为主的水热要素贡献率为 51.51%。 |
| Other Abstract | The Junggar Basin is located in the hinterland of Eurasia. The change of climateand environment have similarity with global change, but also have regionalcharacteristics. With the changing of climate in the Junggar Basin, as sensitiveunderlying surface, plant were responsed firstly. Meanwhile, the regional land usepattern has changed dramatically due to improvements in agricultural production,accelerated urbanization, and accomplishment of environmental projects, vegetationcoverage and structure and function of ecosystem has changed as well. On the basis offield-measured and GIMMS NDVI data，the dynamic changes of the vegetationcoverage at time (month, season, year) and space(population, community, landscape,regional) scale in study area were analyzed, and the correlation among the vegetationand climate, soil matrix, water resource utilization, LUCC, human activity and otherfactors were illuminated, and then the proportion of climate change and humanactivity influenced vegetation change was quantified, and at last an ecologicalconservation strategy and optimal management was proposed. The primaryconclusions are as follows:(1) The NDVI and average vegetation coverage in this study area was 0.18 and23.08% from 1982 to 2013. Over those 32 years, the area of improvement ofvegetation coverage accounted for 53.43% of the total area of the study area, thedegenerated area accounted for 27.09% and the remaining area accounted for 19.48%.The area with vegetation coverage greater than 40% increased fastest, and the area inwhich the vegetation coverage ranged from 10% to 20% was reduced most rapidly.The longitudinal zonal characteristic was significant (R2=0.69, P﹤0.001) in the studyarea. and the change rate in the vegetation coverage was 0.3 per 10 degrees from westto east. Hurst index was 0.70, that means vegetation coverage had long-termsteadiness. From 2000 to 2010, vegetation coverage had varied from middle class(vegetation coverage was 20%～30%) to the two opposing extremes (I class withvegetation coverage below 10% and V class with vegetation coverage over 40%). (2) From 1990 to 2010, the area of positive and negative transition of vegetationcoverage accounted for 14.00% and 10.29% of total vegetation area, and theproportion was 11.16% and 7.89% from 2000 to 2010. From 1990 to 2010, the openforest land area with a canopy density below 30% and the grassland with coverageranging from 5% to 20% decreased continually; from 1990 to 2010, the grasslandwith low coverage decreased from 2.82×106hm2to 2.58×106hm2; the number ofgrassland patches with moderate and high coverage increased significantly. Markovmodel forecasted that vegetation transition probablity would tend to stable in thefuture 15 years, and the area of shrubbery with canopy density over 40% woulddecreased gradually, the study area would have severe environmental condition in thefuture 15 years.(3) In the Haloxylon ammodendron plantations with age of 7～42 years old, the17-year-old plantation had best regeneration, individual density of the regenerationlayer in there was 2.25×104per hectare. The number of saplings (TH≥50cm)accounted for 29.29% of the entire regeneration layer. The average height and stembasal diameter of the saplings were 1.1m and 1.9cm, respectively. The saplingsaccounted for 40.28% of the regeneration layer in the 33-year-old plantation, in whichthe average height and stem basal diameter were 1.0m and 0.5cm. The order of thesystem coupling degree between the vegetation and soil was 33-year-old plantation >23-year-old plantation > 42-year-old plantation > 20-year-old plantation > 17-year-oldplantation > 28-year-old plantation > 12-year-old plantation > 15-year-old plantation >7-year-old plantation. The coupling coordinative degree between the vegetation andthe soil was 28-year-old plantation > 42-year-old plantation > 20-year-old plantation >17-year-old plantation > 33-year-old plantation > 12-year-old plantation > 23-year-oldplantation > 15-year-old plantation> 7-year-old plantation. The 7～42 years old H.ammodendronplantations remained in a degradation stage, in which the vegetationand soil were in a state of loss. This stage simply decreased to some degree with theincreased plantation age.(4) The average annual temperature and precipitation in the study area were6.39 °C and 215.79 mm from 1982 to 2013, and they increased by 0.4 °C and 9.68 mm, respectively, every 10 years. The warming effect primarily occurred during thespring and autumn, while the moistening effect primarily occurred during the springand winter. And the population increased by 58.89% from 1989 to 2014. From 1982to 2013, the correlation coefficients between the vegetation coverage and the annualaverage temperature for this year or the last year were 0.178 (P>0.05) and 0.075(P>0.05), respectively. The correlation coefficients between the vegetation coverageand the annual average precipitation for this year or the last year were 0.200 (p>0.05)and 0.055 (P<0.01), respectively. The regression equation for the vegetation coverageand climate factors was Yi=15.36+0.04X1i+0.11X2i (p=0.028) (X1i was precipitationand X2i was temperature). The contribution of human activities to the vegetationcoverage change was 48.49%, and the contribution of climate factors (precipitationand temperature were primary) was 51.51%. |
| Subject Area | 自然地理学 |
| Language | 中文 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14931 |
| Collection | 研究系统_荒漠环境研究室 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 罗青红. 准噶尔盆地南缘植被动态变化及驱动因素研究[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2018. |
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