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中国西北地区陆路交通运输业与经济发展关系研究
孙景鑫
Subtype博士
Thesis Advisor李志农 ; 雷加强
2018-06-05
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral新疆乌鲁木齐
Degree Discipline理学博士
Keyword西北地区 国民经济 陆路交通运输业 Lotka-Volterra 模型 引力模型 Northwest Region National Economy Land Transportation Lotka-Volterra Model Gravity Model
Abstract交通运输对社会经济发展的影响巨大,它不仅是社会经济系统中各项产业发展的基础条件,还支撑着整个社会经济系统的发展,是区域经济系统与外部进行交流的主要途径。处理好西北地区陆路交通运输业与经济发展的关系是该地区经济实现高效持久增长的必要条件,更是全国实现均衡发展的关键之一。研究西北地区交通与经济增长的区域性关系,探寻不同省区交通与经济增长关系的特征,有助于区域性交通战略计划的制定和实施,有利于能促进经济增长的交通发展,有利于走和谐发展的中国特色的社会主义道路。本文围绕西北五省的陆路交通运输业发展与经济的关系,利用 LV 模型、改进的引力模型,对 1991-2015 年西北五省区陆路交通运输业、交通运输经济相关指标之间及其和国民生产总值的关系分别进行了模拟估算,对比分析了五省陆路交通运输业与经济发展之间关系模式的差异;对相邻两省间的陆路交通运输业和经济的相互影响进行了量化分析,并确定了其影响主要的关键因素;并对五省区未来 5 年陆路交通运输业及其经济的发展趋势做了预测。基于上工作,得出以下主要结论:1. 西北地区陆路交通运输业与经济间关系(1)西北五省总体上的特征为,客运业以公路运输为主,货运业以铁路运输为主,在越发达的省区这两者的相互作用关系越明显。(2)陕西的铁路营业里程会直接影响公路里程的发展,而甘肃则相反。青海公路里程会促进铁路营业里程的发展,而铁路营业里程的发展会直接影响公路里程的发展。新疆和宁夏属于中立关系。(3)青海公路客运量可直接影响铁路客运量的发展,宁夏、甘肃铁路客运量的增长促进公路客运量的发展;陕西铁路客运量促进公路客运量的增长,而后者会直接影响铁路客运量的发展;新疆为中立。甘肃铁路货运量可直接影响公路客运量的发展,陕西铁路货运量的增长促进公路货运量的发展,青海公路货运量促进铁路货运量的增长,而后者会直接影响公路货运量的发展;宁夏的铁路货运量和公路货运量之间相互促进,新疆为中立。(4)陕西、青海、甘肃、宁夏公路里程数的增加促进了国民经济的发展,而新疆属于中立关系。甘肃国民生产总值促进铁路营业里程的增长,新疆为国民生产总值促进铁路营业里程的增长,而陕西为铁路营业里程的增长促进国民生产总值的提高;青海、宁夏属于中立关系。青海公路货运周转量从铁路货运周转量中获益,宁夏则相反;陕西、甘肃铁路货运周转量可直接影响公路货运周转量的发展,新疆属于中立。(5)陕西、宁夏表现为交通运输与邮政、仓储固定资产投资促进交通运输业增加值的增长,青海、甘肃交通运输业增加值直接影响交通运输与邮政、仓储固定资产投资,新疆的关系为中立。陕西交通运输业增加值促进国民生产总值的增长,新疆则相反;青海的国民生产总值与交通运输业增加值相互促进;甘肃、宁夏属于中立关系。(6)新疆、宁夏交通运输与邮政、仓储固定资产投资与国民生产总值相互促进;青海交通运输与邮政、仓储固定资产投资促进该省的国民生产总值的发展;陕西交通运输与邮政、仓储固定资产投资促进该省的国民生产总值的增长,但后者直接影响前者。(7)新疆、甘肃交通运输业增加值促进人口的增长;青海、宁夏的人口直接影响交通运输业增加值的发展,后者对前者影响小;甘肃的关系为中立。新疆、青海、宁夏人口直接影响国民生产总值的发展,陕西国民生产总值促进人口增长,甘肃属于中立关系。(8)甘肃国民生产总值的发展会直接影响公路客运量的增长,陕西、宁夏公路客运量促进国民生产总值的发展,而后者会对公路客运量的发展趋势造成直接影响。新疆、青海公路客运量对国民生产总值的发展有促进作用。新疆国民生产总值对铁路客运量有一定程度的促进作用,而后者的快速增长会影响国民生产总值的持续增长趋势;陕西国民生产总值与铁路客运量之间相互促进,共同发展;甘肃、宁夏国民生产总值可以从铁路客运量中获益,青海国民生产总值促进铁路客运量的发展。(9)陕西、甘肃、青海和宁夏属于偏利共生的关系,表现为公路旅客周转量从铁路旅客周转量中获益,新疆属于中立。新疆、甘肃国民生产总值对公路旅客周转量的发展有直接影响,宁夏国民生产总值从公路旅客周转量中收益,青海公路旅客周转量与国民生产总值相互间的直接影响极为显著, 公路旅客周转量促进国民生产总值的发展。青海国民生产总值与铁路旅客周转量之间相互促进,甘肃铁路旅客周转量促进国民生产总值的发展,新疆、陕西和宁夏属于中立。(10)新疆、甘肃国民生产总值对公路货运量的发展有促进作用,青海国民生产总值促进公路货运量的发展,而后者会对国民生产总值的发展趋势造成直接影响,陕西、宁夏属于中立。青海、甘肃、宁夏铁路货运量对国民生产总值有一定程度的促进作用,而后者的快速增长会影响铁路货运量;陕西国民生产总值可以从铁路货运量中获益,新疆铁路货运量的发展直接影响国民生产总值的增长。(11)陕西、宁夏公路货运周转量对国民生产总值的发展有促进作用,新疆则相反,青海国民生产总值的发展直接影响公路货运周转量的增长趋势,甘肃为中立。新疆、陕西铁路货运周转量促进国民生产总值的发展,青海、甘肃铁路货运周转量促进国民生产总值的发展,而后者直接影响铁路货运周转量的增长趋势,宁夏铁路货运周转量与国民生产总值相互间直接影响极为显著。2. 与规划目标相比,2016 到 2020 年间的预测值,除了新疆的交通运输业增加值和交通固定资产投资波动较大外,其余省区的交通运输业增加值、国民生产总值、人口均为上升趋势。各省的陆路交通里程也呈上升趋势。各省的客运量均处于波动中缓慢上升的趋势,而旅客周转量除甘肃外也均为上升趋势。货运量方面,除陕西和甘肃外,其余省区均为波动中逐渐上升的趋势;货运周转量则除宁夏外,各省区均呈波动中逐渐下降趋势。
Other AbstractAbstractIVAbstractThe social-economic development is deeply affected by transportation. It is notonly a fundamental basis for the development of various industries in the socialeconomic system, but also supports the development of the entire social economicsystem. Transportation is the main route for the regional economic system tocommunicate with the outside. A better cope with the relationship between landtransport and economic development in the northwest China is not only essential toachieve an efficient and sustainable development of the economy in this region, butalso key to the balanced development of the country. Investigation of the regionalrelationship between transportation and economic growth in the northwest China andexploration of the characteristics of the relationship between transportation andeconomic growth in different provinces/regions are helpful for the formulation andimplementation of regional traffic strategies, beneficial for the development oftransportation that can promote economic growth, and in favor of the harmoniousdevelopment of the socialist road with Chinese characteristics.This study focused on the relationship between the development of the landtransportation industry and the economy in five provinces/regions in Northwest China.The land transport industry, the relationships within the transportationeconomic-related indicators and between GDP were estimated using the LV modeland the improved gravity model, and the differences of the pattern regarding therelationship between land transportation and economic development were analyzed inthe five provinces/regions from 1991 to 2015. The quantitative analysis of the mutualinfluence of the land transportation industry and the economy between the twoneighboring provinces in the northwestern region was carried out, and the key impactfactors were determined. The development trend of the land transportation industryand economy of the five provinces/regions in the future five years were predicated.Based on the above studies, the following main conclusions were drawn:1. The relationship between land transportation and economy in Northwest China(1)The characteristics of the five provinces/regions were that the passengertransportation industry was dominated by road transport, while the freighttransportation dominated by railway transport. The more developed theprovinces/regions were, the more pronounced the interaction was.(2)Shanxi's railway operating mileage directly affected the development of highway mileage, while Gansu was the opposite. Qinghai's highway mileagepromoted the development of railway mileage, and the development of railwaymileage directly affected the development of highway mileage. By contrast, theirrelationships in Xinjiang and Ningxia was neutral.(3)Qinghai highway passenger quantity directly affected the developmentof railway passenger quantity, while the increase of passenger quantity inNingxia and Gansu promoted the development of highway passenger quantity;Shanxi’s railway passenger quantity boosted the growth of highway passengerquantity, and the latter directly influenced the development of railway passengerquantity; By contrast, the relationship between them in Xinjiang was neutral.Gansu’s railway freight amont directly influenced the development of highwayfreight amount. The growth of Shanxi's railway freight volume promoted thedevelopment of highway freight volume. The highway freight volume of Qinghaiput forward the growth of railway freight amount, while the latter directlyaffected the development of highway freight volume; Ningxia's railway freightvolume and highway freight volume promoted each other, whereas therelationship between them in Xinjiang was neutral.(4)The increase of road mileage in Shanxi, Qinghai, Gansu, and Ningxiahad facilitated the national economic development, however, the effect inXinjiang was neutral. The GDP of Gansu and Xinjiang promoted the growth ofrailway mileage. And the increase in the mileage of railways boosted theimprovement of Shaanxi's GDP ; However, the corresponding indicators inQinghai and Ningxia was neutral.Qinghai’s highway cargo rotation was benefited from railway cargo rotation,while Ningxia was in contrast. The freight turnover of railways in Shanxi andGansu directly affected the development of the freight traffic volume ofhighways. The corresponding indicators in Xinjiang was neutral.(5)In Shanxi and Ningxia, the transportation, postal and storage fixedassets investment promoted the increase of the added value of transportationindustry; The added value of the transportation industry in Qinghai and Gansudirectly affected the transportation, postal and storage investment in fixed assets,and the corresponding indicators in Xinjiang was neutral. The added value ofShaanxi's transportation industry promoted the growth of GDP, but opposite in Xinjiang; The GDP of Qinghai and the added value of the transportation industrypromoted mutually, but neutral for Gansu and Ningxia.(6)The transport, postal, storage, investment in fixed assets and GDPpromoted mutually in Xinjiang and Ningxia; The transport, postal and storageinvestment in fixed assets promoted the development of Qinghai's GDP; Shanxi'stransportation, postal, and warehousing investment in fixed assets havecontributed to and directly influenced by the growth of GDP.(7)The added value of transportation promoted population growth inXinjiang and Gansu; The population of Qinghai and Ningxia directly affected thedevelopment of added value of the transportation industry, but the latter has littleimpact on the former; The relationship between them in Gansu was neutral. Thepopulation in Xinjiang, Qinghai and Ningxia directly influenced the developmentof GDP. The GDP in Shanxi promoted population growth, but neutral in Gansu.(8)The development of Gansu's GDP directly affected the growth ofhighway passenger quantity. The highway passenger amounts of Shanxi andNingxia promoted the development of GDP, which directly affected thedevelopment trend of highway passenger quantity. The passenger quantity ofhighway in Xinjiang and Qinghai was contributed to the development of GDP.The GDP of Xinjiang had a certain role in promoting railway passenger quantity,and the latter's rapid growth affected the sustainable growth of the GDP. Shanxi'sGDP and railway passenger quantity promoted each other; The GDP of Gansuand Ningxia was benefited from the railway passenger transportation, and theGDP of Qinghai promoted the development of railway passenger transportation.(9)Shanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia were partial relations ofsymbiosis, indicating that the rotation of highway passenger was benefited fromrailway passenger turnover, but it was neutral for Xinjiang. The GDP of Xinjiangand Gansu had a direct impact on the development of highway passenger rotation.The GDP of Ningxia was yielded from the turnover of highway passengers, andthe direct effects of the Qinghai highway passenger turnover and GDP on eachother was extremely significant. Qinghai’s GDP and railway passenger turnoverwere mutually prompted. Gansu’s railway passenger rotation promoted thedevelopment of GDP, but their relationships was neutral for Xinjiang, Shanxi andNingxia.(10)The GDP of Xinjiang and Gansu had a positive effect on thedevelopment of highway cargo volume; Qinghai's GDP promoted thedevelopment of highway freight volume; and the latter directly affected the GDPdeveloping trend. And they were neutral for Shanxi and Ningxia. The railwayfreight volume of Qinghai, Gansu and Ningxia had certain promoting effects inthe GDP, and the GDP 's rapid growth affected the railway freight amonts.Shanxi's GDP was benefited from railway freight volume, and the developmentof railway freight in Xinjiang directly affected the GDP growth.(11)The highway freight turnover in Shanxi and Ningxia promoted thedevelopment of GDP, but opposite in Xinjiang. The GDP’s development inQinghai directly influenced the growth trend of the highway freight rotation,whereas the impact was neutral for Gansu. The railway freight turnover inXinjiang and Shanxi promoted the development of GDP. Railway freightturnover of Qinghai and Gansu promoted the GDP’s development, and the latterdirectly affected the growth trend of railway freight turnover. Ningxia’s railwayfreight rotation and GDP significantly affected each other.2. Compared to the planning objectives, the predicted added value of thetransportation industry, GDP and population of all provinces/regions except forXinjiang will be upward from 2016 to 2020. The land traffic mileage in eachprovince will also rise. The passenger quantity in all provinces will slowly raiseup in fluctuations, and passenger rotation will also be in an upward trend exceptfor Gansu. The freight volume in all provinces/regions except for Shanxi andGansu will gradually rise in fluctuations; whereas the freight rotation willcontinuously decrease in all provinces/regions except for Ningxia.
Subject Area自然地理学
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14936
Collection研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
孙景鑫. 中国西北地区陆路交通运输业与经济发展关系研究[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2018.
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