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伊塞克湖水位变化驱动机制与未来变化趋势预测
伊丽努尔·阿力甫江
Subtype博士
Thesis Advisor吉力力·阿不都外力
2018-06-05
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral新疆乌鲁木齐
Degree Discipline理学博士
Keyword驱动机理 水位模拟 SD 模型 伊塞克湖 中亚干旱区 main driving factors water level simulation SD model Lake Issyk-Kul arid Central Asia
Abstract山地湖泊普遍处于高山或高原的低洼盆地,具有稳定的冰川融水和降水补给,因此对气候变化的响应更敏感,在自然状态下,能较为真实的反映区域气候变化的状况,该系统受人类活动影响相对较小,是开展全球变化区域响应的理想地区。伊塞克湖是中亚干旱区最大的、世界第二深的山地湖泊,区域内自然资源丰富,对维系区域生态环境平衡方面具有重要意义。然而近年来,伊塞克湖在气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下湖水位持续下降,面积收缩,对区域生态环境造成很大的影响,依据历史监测数据,伊塞克湖湖泊水位表现为明显的不稳定性,但对湖泊水位水量的变化过程及机理的研究存在欠缺,因此,本文以湖泊水量平衡为主线,从气候变化和人文双重胁迫区域水资源的角度,进行了伊塞克湖水位变化趋势及机理的研究,对区域水资源管理具有理论意义和实际应用价值。论文通过对伊塞克湖流域气候水文资料和社会经济数据的分析,对湖泊水位水量等水文过程及其驱动因子进行了系统辨析,并运用系统动力学模型对其变化机制进行模拟,而后,结合各项观测数据,定量辨识气候变化和人类活动对流域径流量影响的分量,预估不同气候情景下未来湖水位的可能变化,并根据流域水资源特点及面临的生态环境问题,提出流域水资源科学利用对策。 论文主要结论如下:(1)对 1927~2012 年伊塞克湖年平均湖泊水位变化数据分析得出,湖泊水位呈现波动变化,其中以 1927~1986 年为持续下降阶段, 1987~2012 年为波动上升阶段,但总体呈下降趋势,湖泊水位在 86 年间共下降 3.3 m,下降速度为 0.46 m/10a。结合降水与灌溉用水量数据分析得出, 1980 年以前湖泊水位主要受人类活动影响(主要是农业灌溉用水量), 20 世纪 80 年代后期开始主要受气候变化影响。(2)根据伊塞克湖水量平衡关系,选用系统动力学模型,建立 1980~2012 年伊塞克湖水量动态平衡模型,通过敏感度分析和情景分析定量评估了影响湖水位的主要因素。敏感度分析结果表明,水文和社会经济因素对伊塞克湖水位变化影响程度为:地表径流量(SW) > 湖面蒸发量(E) > 地下水入湖水量(GW) > 湖面降水量(P) >农业用水量(Awd) > 农业用地面积(Lagr) > 人口(p) > 居民生活用水量(Dwd) >工业用水量(Iwd),可以看出流域地表径流量是引起水位变化的主导因素,土地利用类型变化、和需水量下降也是引起湖泊水位变化的重要人为因素。情景分析结果表明,水循环成分如湖面蒸发量和流域河流径流量的变化是引起湖泊水位动态变化的重要因素。(3)突变检验分析结果表明,伊塞克湖径流量在 1986 年附近发生突变,1986~2012 年的流域年平均径流比 1943~1985 年增加了 8.6%,增加趋势较为显著。基于双曲线累积法和周期趋势叠加模型法,对 1986-2012 年伊塞克湖气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响贡献分量进行定量分析,结果表明人类活动对径流的贡献率分别为35.3% 和 18%,而气候变化的贡献率分别为 64.7%和 82%,即可认为气候变化是引起该时间段内流域径流量增加的主要因素,而人类活动起负面减流作用。(4)基于伊塞克湖水量动态平衡模型,以气候模式 WRF 输出为依据,预估了未来气候条件下湖水位(水量)的潜在变化。结果显示,相对于 1980~2012 年, RCP4.5 和 RCP 8.5 气候情景下, 2013~2040 年间流域年平均降水量增加近 40%,而湖泊水量、水位在 2013~2040 年间呈减少趋势,其结果预示着未来流域的水旱灾害情势将会严峻。(5)依据伊塞克湖水资源特点及湖区水资源需求特征,确定该区域水资源保护管理与合理利用的措施,加强流域灌溉用水分配管理制度建设,加大流域水利基础设施建立以及制定严格的水价管理制度,提高水资源利用效率,同时可加强全方位水资源监测体系的建立,实现对伊塞克湖流域水文动态监测,对流域水资源安全具有实际意义。本研究对掌握伊塞克湖湖泊的动态变化特征及驱动机制,正确评估气候变化和人类活动对湖泊水位、水量变化的影响具有实践价值,为干早区水资源的合理利用和湖泊生态环境的保护提供科学依据。
Other AbstractMountainous lakes are generally low-lying basins in high mountains or plateaus. Theyhave stable glacial meltwater and precipitation recharge, and more sensitive tochanges in climate. Under natural conditions, they can more accurately reflect theconditions of regional climate change. The system is affected by humans. The impactof the activity is relatively small and it is an ideal area for carrying out global changesin the regional response. Lake Issyk-Kul is the largest and second-largest mountainlake in the arid region of Central Asia. It is rich in natural resources and is of greatsignificance in maintaining the balance of regional ecological environment. However,in recent years, Lake Issyk-Kul water level has continued to decline under the dualinfluence of climate change and human activities, and the area has shrunk. This hascaused a great impact on the regional ecological environment. According to historicalmonitoring data, the lake water level of Issyk-Kul Lake is clearly visible. However,there is a lack of research on the change process and mechanism of water level inlakes. Therefore, in this paper, the water balance of lakes is the main line, and thewater level of Issyk-Kul Lake is carried out from the perspective of the regional waterresources of both the climate change and the humanities. The study of changes intrends and mechanisms has theoretical and practical application value for regionalwater resources management. Based on the analysis of climatic and hydrological dataand socio-economic data of the Issyk-Kul Lake Basin, this paper systematicallyanalyzes the hydrological processes and driving factors of the water level of the lake,and simulates the change mechanism using the system dynamics model. Theobservation data quantitatively identify the impact of climate change and humanactivities on the volume of runoff in the river basin, project possible changes in futurelake water level under different climate scenarios, and propose river basin waterresources based on the water resources characteristics of the river basin and the ecological and environmental problems it faces. Scientific use of countermeasures.The main conclusions of the paper are as follows:(1) Analyzed data from the changes in the average lake water level of Issyk-KulLake from 1927 to 2012, the water level of the lake showed fluctuations, of which theperiod of 1927-1986 was continuous decline, and that of 1987-2012 was the period ofrising volatility. In a downward trend, the lake's water level dropped by 3.3 m in 86years, and the rate of decline was 0.46 m/10a. Combined with precipitation andirrigation water data analysis, it was concluded that the lake water level was mainlyaffected by human activities (mainly agricultural irrigation water consumption) before1980, and it was mainly affected by climate change in the late 1980s.(2) According to the water balance relationship of Issyk-Kul Lake, the systemdynamics model was selected to establish the dynamic balance model of Issyk-KulLake from 1980 to 2012, and the main factors affecting the water level werequantitatively assessed by sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis. The results ofsensitivity analysis showed that the impact of hydrological and socio-economicfactors on the water level change in Issyk-Kul Lake was as follows: surface runoff(SW)> lake evaporation (E)> groundwater input (GW)> lake precipitation (P) >Agricultural Water Consumption (Awd)> Agricultural Land Area (Lagr)> Population(p)> Household Water Consumption (Dwd)> Industrial Water Consumption (Iwd). Itcan be seen that surface runoff in a river basin is the dominant factor causing waterlevel changes. Changes in the type of land use and the decrease in water demand arealso important human factors that cause changes in lake water levels. The results ofthe four scenarios show that changes in the water cycle components such as lakeevaporation and river runoff in river basins are important factors in the dynamicchanges of lake water level.(3) The results of mutation test analysis showed that the runoff of Issyk-KulLake was abruptly changed around 1986, and the annual average runoff of thewatershed from 1986 to 2012 was increased by 8.6% from 1943 to 1985, and theincrease trend was more significant. Based on the hyperbolic cumulative method andthe periodic trend superposition model method, the quantitative contribution of the contribution of climate change and human activities to the runoff from the 1986-2012Issyk-Kul was quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that the contribution rateof human activities to runoff was 35.3% and 18%, while the contribution rate ofclimate change is 64.7% and 82%, respectively, and it can be considered that climatechange is the main factor that causes the increase of runoff in the basin during thisperiod, and human activities play a negative role in reducing flow.(4) Based on the water balance model of Issyk-Kul Lake, based on the WRFoutput of climate model, the potential changes of lake water level (water volume)under future climate conditions are estimated. The results show that compared to 1980to 2012, under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, the average annualprecipitation in the river basin increased by nearly 40% from 2013 to 2040, while thelake water volume and water level showed a decreasing trend from 2013 to 2040. Theresults indicate that In the future, flood and drought disasters in the river basin will besevere.(5) Based on the characteristics of Issyk-Kul Lake and the characteristics ofwater resources in the lake area, determine the measures for the management andrational use of water resources protection in the region, strengthen the construction ofdrainage water distribution management system in the river basin, increase theestablishment of water infrastructure in the basin, and establish strict The water pricemanagement system can improve the efficiency of water resources utilization, and atthe same time, it can strengthen the establishment of a comprehensive water resourcesmonitoring system and realize the dynamic monitoring of the Issyk-Kul Lake Basinwatershed, which is of practical significance to water resources security in the riverbasin.This study is of practical value in understanding the dynamic changes anddriving mechanisms of lakes in Issyk-Kul Lake, and correctly assessing the effects ofclimate change and human activities on changes in water levels and water levels oflakes. It is a reasonable use of water resources in dry early areas and the ecologicalenvironment of lakes. Protection provides a scientific basis.
Subject Area自然地理学
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14942
Collection研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
伊丽努尔·阿力甫江. 伊塞克湖水位变化驱动机制与未来变化趋势预测[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2018.
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