KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 塔里木河干流地表水—地下水转化关系研究 | |
| 班春广 | |
| Subtype | 硕士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 赵成义 |
| 2018-06-01 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 新疆乌鲁木齐 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学硕士 |
| Keyword | 日径流模拟 气候情景 地表水-地下水转化 MIKE SHE 塔里木河干流 Daily runoff simulation Climate change Surface water and groundwater interaction MIKE SHE the main stream of Tarim River |
| Abstract | 塔里木河深居亚欧大陆内部， 是中国最大的内陆河，塔里木河干流是塔里木河水源重要耗散区， 其水资源短缺已成为制约整个干流沿岸社会、经济、生态持续发展的限制性因素。加强对塔里木河干流地表水地下水转化关系研究及未来气候变化影响下径流量预估，对于塔里木河干流沿岸水资源合理开发利用、 优化配置、评价， 以及社会经济发展， 下游绿色长廊的维持具有十分重要的意义。 本文选取具有明确物理基础的分布式水文模型 MIKE SHE 建立研究区水文模型， 并采用 1998-2003 年水文站流量实测数据识别模型， 2004-2007 年流量实测数据、2013 年地下水数据验证模型。 基于识别验证的模型， 研究了塔里木河干流地表水地下水转化关系，得到以下主要结论：（1） 通过识别验证塔里木河干流径流模拟结果与实测值，率定期塔里木河干流三个水文站日径流相关系数均在 0.86 以上，纳什系数均在 0.65 以上；验证期干流各水文站日径流相关系数均在 0.86 以上，纳什系数均在 0.59 以上， 2013年地下水验证结果显示有 73%的观测井均方根误差 RMSE 小于 0.8， 表明 MIKESHE 水文模型在干流模拟的适用性较好。（2）采用流域水均衡分析法计算出 1990-1995 年、 1996-2000 年、 2001-2005年、 2006-2010 年四个时期河道渗漏补给量分别为 23.95 亿 m³、 26.83 亿 m³、 21.80亿 m³、 16.79 亿 m³。（3）根据 MIKE SHE 数值模拟得出以下结论： 丰水年水文情景下，河水补给地下水量为 9.90×108m³/a，占总补给量的 16.25%，蒸散发量为 49.79×108m³/a，占总排泄量的 81.77%。平水年水文情景下，河水补给地下水量为 7.22×108m³/a，占总补给量的 9.05%， 较丰水年 1964 年减少了 2.68×108m³。蒸散发量为61.69×108m³，占总排泄量的 77.34%。枯水年水文情景下，河水补给地下水量为 5.89×108m³/a，比平水年减少 1.33×108m³，占总补给量的 8.96%。蒸散发量为 50.82×108m³/a，占总排泄量的 77.34%， 地下水补给河水为 1.78×108m³/a，占总排泄量的 2.7%。（4） 各气候情景下多年月平均气温较基准期呈现显著增加趋势， 三种情景升温幅度在 1.7-2.2℃之间，且以夏秋二季增温较大；降水在各水文站各气候情景下呈现整体增加趋势，且具有春季增幅较大，秋季增幅较小的特征，表明未来气候可能将趋向暖-湿状态。（5） 未来气候情景下， 三个水文站径流量均有不同程度地减少，其中恰拉水文站减少比例最大达 5.04%， 新其满水文站减少比例最小为 0.6%。由于气温升高， 整个干流蒸发将加强， 因此使得各水文站径流量呈不同程度地减少趋势。在各气候排放情景中， RCP2.6 情景下各水文站减少量最小， RCP8.5 情景下则最大。 与此相对应的河水补给地下水的补给量变化较小，表明气候情景主要影响干流各水文站的年径流量变化，对地表水地下水转化作用微弱。 |
| Other Abstract | The Tarim River is located in the center of Eurasia, which is the biggest innerriver of China. The main stream of Tarim River is the consume place of Tarim River’swater resource, whose shortage of water resource has become the limited factor of thesociety, economy, and ecology sustained development. Putting more attention on theresearch of the conversion between surface water and groundwater in the main streamof Tarim River, estimating the runoff under the climate change scenarios, which has agreat contributions to the exploitation, utilization, optimal configuration andestimation of the main stream of Tarim River, as well as to the society and economydevelopment and to the sustainability of green corridor of lower reaches. So, wechoose the distributed hydrological model MIKE SHE to build the research areamodel, adopting the stations measured data during 1998-2003 years to calibrate themodel, and used the data from 2004 to 2007 years and measured groundwater data in2013 year to validate the model. Based on the validating model, we research therelationship of the conversion between surface water and groundwater in the mainstream of Tarim River, mainly including the following several conclusions:(1) Through the validating the simulation results and measured data, it showsthat during the calibration time, the correlation coefficient of the three hydrometricstations are all above 0.86, Nash coefficient are all above 0.65. During the validationtime, the correlation coefficient and the validation coefficient of all the hydrometricstations are above 0.86, and 0.59 respectively. About 73% observed wells RMSEsmaller than 0.8 in 2013 year. All this indicated that MIKE SHE model is suited in themain stream of Tarim River.(2) Using water balance analysis method of basin, I have computed the amountof the main stream of Tarim River recharge the groundwater during 1990 to 1995,1996 to 2000, 2001 to 2005 and 2006 to 2010, which is 23.95×108m³/a, 26.83×108m³/a, 21.80×108m³/a, and 16.79×108m³/a, respectively.(3) Based on the model results of MIKE SHE, I have come to conclusions asbelow. Under the rich year hydrological condition, the amount of the main stream ofTarim River recharge the groundwater is 9.90×108m³/a, accounting for 16.25% ofthe total recharge amount, evapotranspiration is 49.79×108m³/a, accounting for81.77% of the total drainage amount. Under the flat water year hydrological condition,the amount of the main stream of Tarim River recharge the groundwater is 7.22×108m³/a, accounting for 9.05% of the total recharge amount, decrease about 2.68×108m³ than the amount of rich year. Evapotranspiration is 61.69× 108m³ /a,accounting for 77.34% of the total drainage amount. Under the dry year hydrologicalcondition, the amount of the main stream of Tarim River recharge the groundwater is5.89×108m³/a, accounting for 8.96% of the total recharge amount, decreasing about1.33×108m³compare to flat water year. Evapotranspiration is 50.82×108m³/a,accounting for 77.34% of the total drainage amount, the amount of groundwaterrecharge river is 1.78×108m³/a, which makes up 2.7% of the total drainage amount .(4) Multi-month mean temperature under every climate change scenarios willincrease compare with the base period, and the monthly average temperature will beincreased by 1.7-2.2℃, with obvious temperature rise in summer and autumn; Theprecipitation overall showed an increasing trend with a higher increase in spring andlower increase in autumn, showing that the future climate probably become warm andhumid.(5) Under the future climate scenarios, annual runoff volume of varioushydrometric stations shows decreasing tendency, the downstream Chara hydrometricstation has the biggest decrease rate (5.04%), while the upstream Xin Qimanhydrometric station presents the opposite (0.6%). Duo to the temperature rises, theevaporation will strength, making the discharge of all hydrometric stations decrease atthe different levels. During the climate scenarios, the discharge of every stationdecrease smallest is under RCP2.6 scenario, while under RCP8.5 scenario willdecrease largest. Simultaneously, changing of the river recharge the groundwateramount is small, indicating that climate change scenarios are mainly influence the change of the annual discharge, while has a little influence on the surface water andgroundwater interaction. |
| Subject Area | 自然地理学 |
| Language | 中文 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14955 |
| Collection | 研究系统_荒漠环境研究室 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 班春广. 塔里木河干流地表水—地下水转化关系研究[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2018. |
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