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干旱区城市土地利用覆被变化对区域气候的影响及模型模拟适应性研究
杜皓阳
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor张弛
2018-06-01
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral新疆乌鲁木齐
Degree Discipline理学硕士
Keyword土地利用/覆被变化 WRF 模型 哈密绿洲 区域气候效应 Land use/cover change WRF model Hami oasis regional climate effect
Abstract随着经济的快速发展,中国西北干旱区绿洲在过去二十年经历了快速的城市化和农田扩张, 2000 年到 2015 年哈密绿洲土地利用和土地覆被在空间上发生了巨大的变化,地表各种参数随着这些变化也发生了巨大变化,并且这些变化使地表与大气彼此相互作用。利用中尺度区域气候预报模型 WRF,首先使用哈密绿洲高精度土地利用及土地覆被数据替换模型内置数据, 优选出一套适合研究区的WRF 参数化方案,并检验改进后模型的模拟效果通过气象站点以及遥感反演。在此基础上,针对两期不同的土地利用和覆被数据进行模拟,研究土地利用和覆被变化对区域气候的影响, 同时研究针对城市与绿洲的不同位置组合进行研究,从气温、能量平衡、 风场变化等方面来研究土地利用覆被变化的区域气候效应,主要得到以下结论:(1)改进的 WRF 模型模拟效果表现较好,其中 2m 温度模拟值与观测值偏差、均方根误差、相关系数平均值分别为 0.4℃、 1.7℃、 84%, 2m 相对湿度观测值与模行输出值偏差、均方根误差、相关系数分别为 1.6℃, 5.8℃, 81%,且均有较小的偏差, 模型模拟地表温度与遥感反演地表温度空间相关性达到 93.14%;说明改进后的 WRF 模型完全适合对干旱区绿洲城市荒漠系统的模拟。(2)本研究量化了土地利用覆被转换之间地表温度、 2m 相对湿度、潜热通量、 感热通量以及 2m 气温之间的变化,其中研究区土地利用变化对气象要素的综合效应表现为: 2m 气温升高 1.2℃,相对湿度增加 2%;下垫面由绿洲转变为城市, 2m 气温增加 2.5-3℃,地表温度增加 3-5℃,相对湿度减小 4-8%, 潜热降低-20~-100W/m2,感热升高 30~120 W/m2;由荒漠变为城市, 2m 气温增加 1-2℃,地温增加 3-6℃,相对湿度减小 1-4%;由荒漠变为绿洲, 2m 气温降低 1.5-4℃,地温降低 0-7.5C,相对湿度增加 4-16%。(3)绿洲和城市位置的不同组合对区域气候产生不同的影响,其中当城市位于绿洲中心时,城市对绿洲的影响大于城市位于绿洲边缘时;同时对低层风场和温度场的影响与高层不同,在低层风场和温度场中心基本重合,但在高层风场和温度场中心并不重合,温度场中心在风场中心下游。
Other Abstractwith the development of economy, the oases in the northwest China haveexperienced rapid urbanization and agricultural reclamation during the last decades.The temporal and spatial pattern of land use and land cover in Hami has taken placegreat changes from 2000 to 2015, and land surface parameters have also changeddramatically with these changes which will affect the interaction between the surfaceand the atmosphere. Using Hami Oasis land use and land cover data replacement databuilt-in mesoscale regional climate model WRF, and a set of WRF parameterizationschemes suitable for the study area was selected. Two 1-month simulations wereconducted separately in July, with different land use/cover datasets derived from thesatellite images of 2000 and 2015. In this paper, not only did we use the observationstation validating the model accuracy, but also use remote sensing inversion validatingthe land surface temperature. At the same time, the study focused on the combinationof different locations of cities and oasis, and studied the effects of changes intemperature, energy balance, and changes in the wind field on the regional climaticeffects of land use change. Several conclusions are obtained:(1) The improved WRF model performs well, the 2m air temperature wasvalidated through the bias (Bias) between observations and the output of WRF model,the root mean square error (RMSE) between observations and model output, thecorrelation coefficient (R) between observations and model output, and the averageBias, RMSE and R between observations and model output was 0.4℃, 1.7℃, 84%respectively. The average Bias, RMSE and R between observations and model outputwas 0.4℃, 1.7℃, 84% respectively. The average Bias, RMSE and 2m relativehumidity was 1.6, 5.8, 81% respectively between observations and model output. Thecorrelation coefficient of land surface temperature between remote sensing inversionand model out reaches 93.14%. It indicates that the improved WRF model is suitablefor the simulation of urban desert system in arid oasis.(2) This study quantifies the changes in, latent heat, and sensible heat, 2mtemperature, 2m relative humidity, surface temperature as land use and coverconversions. The comprehensive effect of land use change on meteorological elements in the study area was as follows: 2m temperature increased by 1.2°C,relative humidity increased by 2%. 2-m temperature rose 2.5-3℃ and land surfacetemperature rose 4.5-6℃ and 2-m relative humidity decreased 4-8% , latent heatreduced -20~-100W/m2, sensible heat increased 30~120 W/m2 when the landuse/cover transformed from oasis to urban. On the contrast, 2-m temperature rose1-2℃ and land surface temperature rose 3-6℃ and 2-m relative humidity decreasedby 1-4% when the desert was replaced by urban. In addition, 2-m temperaturedecreased by 1.5-4℃ and land surface temperature decreased by 0-7.5℃ and 2-mrelative humidity increased by 4-16% when the land use/cover transformed fromdesert to oasis。(3) Different combinations of oasis and urban location have different effects onthe regional climate. When the city is located in the center of the oasis, the impact ofthe city on the oasis is greater than when the city is located on the edge of the oasis.At the same time, the impact on the low-level wind and temperature fields is differentfrom that of the high-level. The center of the low-level wind field and the temperaturefield basically coincide with each other, but does not coincide at the center of thehigh-level wind field and temperature field, and the center of the temperature field isat the center of the wind field.
Subject Area地图学与地理信息系统
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/14963
Collection研究系统_荒漠环境研究室
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
杜皓阳. 干旱区城市土地利用覆被变化对区域气候的影响及模型模拟适应性研究[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2018.
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