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Thesis Advisor杨辽
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral新疆乌鲁木齐
Degree Discipline工程硕士
KeywordNDVI 物候 时空变化 棉花 新疆 Phenology, Temporal and Spatial Variation, Cotton, Xinjiang
Abstract以全球变暖为主要特征的气候变化已成为全球关注的重要问题,农业是对气候变化最为敏感的产业之一,农作物生长季的季节周期对环境变化敏感,农作物物候的重现时间反映农田生态系统对环境因子的响应,对研究农业和气候变化的关系意义重大。新疆是我国最大的优质原棉生产基地,选取棉花作为研究对象进行物候时空特征分析对于深入了解气候变化对新疆农业的影响机制具有典型性,为农业生产、田间管理提供理论支撑以及更有效的应对气候变化。本文基于2001-2016 连续 16 年的 MOD09Q1 数据计算获取 NDVI 时序数据,利用Savitzky-Golay(S-G)滤波重构 NDVI 时序曲线,以动态阈值法提取新疆大地块棉花的生长季开始期、生长季结束期、生长季长度信息,并分析新疆棉花物候时空变化特征及其对气温变化的响应。结果表明:① 2001-2016 年棉花生长季开始期整体呈现为南疆早北疆晚的空间分布格局, 主要集中在 5 月中旬到 6 月上旬, 其中南疆棉花生长季开始期集中于 5 月上旬到 5 月下旬,北疆棉花生长季开始期集中于 5 月下旬到 6 月上旬; 2001-2016 年棉花生长季结束期整体呈现为北疆早南疆晚的空间分布格局, 主要集中在 10 月中到 11 月中旬, 南疆集中于 10 月底到11 月中, 而北疆集中于 10 月中下旬; 2001-2016 年棉花生长季长度整体呈现为北疆短南疆长的空间分布格局,主要集中在 140-180 天,南疆多为 150-180 天,北疆多为 140-150天;② 2001-2016年南疆棉花平均生长季开始期呈现为显著延迟,延迟幅度为 0.478d/y,北疆棉花平均生长季开始期延迟趋势不明显,没有通过显著性检验。全疆有 59.63%棉花面积呈现延迟趋势, 南北疆呈延迟趋势比例接近,分别为 60.77%、 58.02%; 2001-2016 年南疆棉花平均生长季结束期提前趋势不明显,没有通过显著性检验,北疆棉花平均生长季结束期显著提前, 提前幅度为0.736d/y。全疆有 65.72%棉花面积呈提前趋势, 南北疆各自提前比例为 50.84%、86.71%; 2001-2016 年南北疆棉花平均生长季长度显著缩短, 其变化幅度分别为0.609d/y、 0.996d/y。 全疆 74.45%棉花面积呈现出缩短趋势,南北疆研究区内缩短趋势面积占 64.59%、 88.36%。③ 棉花物候期与气温因子相关性分析结果表明,棉花物候主要受气温影响: 生长季开始期与 15℃初日呈正相关,与生长初期平均气温表现为负相关性; 生长季结束期则主要与 10℃终止日呈显著正相关。上述研究成果有助于宏观了解气候变化对新疆棉花的影响, 为各植棉区合理利用气候资源,并有效应对气候变化带来的影响提供科学依据,保证新疆棉花提质增效。
Other AbstractClimate change characterized by global warming has become an important issueof global concern. Agriculture is very sensitive to climate change. The seasonal cycleof the growing season of crops is sensitive to environmental changes, and thereproduction time of crop phenology reflects farmland ecology. The system's responseto environmental factors is of great significance for studying the relationship betweenagriculture and climate change. Xinjiang is the largest high-quality raw cottonproduction base in China. Selecting cotton as the research object to performphenological spatial-temporal characteristics analysis is typical for understanding themechanism of climate change impact on Xinjiang agriculture, providing theoreticalsupport for agricultural production, field management, and more effective climateresponse. Based on MOD09Q1 data from the year 2001 to 2016, the experimentsobtains NDVI time series data, uses Savitzky-Golay (SG) filter to reconstruct theNDVI time series curve, uses dynamic threshold method to extract the beginning ofthe growing season and the end of the growing season of Xinjiang large-scale landcotton. Then analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of cotton phenology inXinjiang and its response to temperature changes. The results show in the following.Firstly, the year 2001-2016 cotton growing season began as a whole in the spatialdistribution pattern of early northern Xinjiang in southern Xinjiang, mainly in themiddle of May to early June. The southern cotton growing season began in May. Fromearly to late May, the beginning of the cotton growing season in northern Xinjiang isconcentrated from late May to early June; the end of the cotton growing season in2001-2016 presents a spatial distribution pattern of the early southern Xinjiang innorthern Xinjiang, mainly concentrated from mid-October to mid-November, southernXinjiang is concentrated from the end of October to mid-November, while northernXinjiang is concentrated in the mid-to-late October; the length of the cotton growingseason 2001-2016 appears as a spatial distribution pattern of the short southern border of northern Xinjiang. Mainly concentrated in 140-180 days, southern Xinjiang mostly150-180 days, northern Xinjiang mostly 140-150 days. Secondly, 2001-2016 SouthXinjiang cotton average growing season showed a significant delay, the delay was0.478d/y. However, the delay in the beginning of the average cotton growing seasonin the northern Xinjiang was not obvious and did not pass the significance test. InXinjiang, 59.63% of the cotton area showed a delayed trend, and the proportion ofdelayed trends in southern and northern Xinjiang was close to 60.77% and 58.02%,respectively. The end of the average growing season of cotton in southern Xinjiangwas not obvious in 2001-2016, and did not pass the significance test. The end of theaverage growing season of cotton in northern Xinjiang was significantly advanced,with a margin of advance of 0.736 d/y. In Xinjiang, 65.72% of the cotton area showedan early trend, with the proportions of 50.84% and 86.71% ahead of schedule for boththe north and the north, and the average length of cotton growing seasons between2001 and 2016 was significantly shorter, with changes of 0.609d/y and 0.996 d/y,respectively. The area of Xinjiang's 74.45% cotton showed a trend of shortening andthe area of shortened trends in the northern and southern Xinjiang research areasaccounted for 64.59% and 88.36%. Finally, the correlation analysis between thephenological phase of cotton and meteorological factors showed that the cottonphenology was mainly affected by the temperature: the beginning of the growingseason was positively correlated with the first day of 15°C, and negatively correlatedwith the mean temperature of the early growth period; the end of the growing seasonwas mainly related to 10°C, there is a significant positive correlation between the endof 10°C.The above research results will help us to understand the impact of climatechange on cotton in Xinjiang, provide a scientific basis for the proper use of climateresources in various cotton-planting areas and effectively respond to the impact ofclimate change, and ensure the quality and efficiency of cotton in Xinjiang.
Subject Area测绘工程
Document Type学位论文
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
茹皮亚·西拉尔. 新疆棉花物候遥感监测[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2018.
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