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Thesis Advisor赵成义
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral新疆乌鲁木齐
Degree Discipline理学硕士
Keyword联合调度 气候变化 文化粒子群算法 叶尔羌河流域 Optimal Operation Climate Change Cultural-particle Swarm Optimization -chaotic Algorithm Yarkant River Basin

针对新疆叶尔羌河流域水资源短缺、用水部门存在竞争、难以优化配置的难题, 研究了气候变化对叶尔羌河流域水文事件产生的影响, 考虑叶尔羌河流域水库群特点, 构建了山区水库—平原水库多目标(发电、 灌溉、 生态、 防洪) 联合调度模型,利用文化粒子群算法对模型求解,显著提高了模型求解的精度和效率。提出了不同调度方案, 研究表明山区水库—平原水库群联合调度可有效提高水资源利用率,提升新疆水资源利用的气候变化适应能力。主要结论如下:(1) 近 55 a 叶尔羌河流域气候变化整体呈增暖增湿趋势, 以 1998 年变化最为显著, 气温及降水变化率最大分别为 0.24℃/10 a, 7.41mm/10 a。 叶尔羌河流域极端水文事件呈显著增加趋势,以 6 月径流变化最为显著,降水增加及冰川加速消融是流域极端水文事件频发的主要影响因素。(2) 构建了叶尔羌河流域山区水库调节-平原水库群联合调度模型, 采用文化粒子群算法对模型求解,实现了流域多目标的水资源集成调度, 提高了计算效率。较逐步优化算法计算的蒸发渗漏减少量为 0.53×108m3,发电新增量1.72×108KW•h, 生态水增加量 0.27×108m3, 水资源利用率增加值 5.31%。(3)气候变化条件下联合调度的综合效益分析研究结果表明:只考虑灌溉和生态效益条件下, 2010-2030 年叶尔羌河流域水资源综合利用率在 RCP2.6 情景下可提高 16.93%, RCP4.5 情景下提高 17.32%, RCP8.5 情景下提高 17.59%。升温幅度越大,水资源综合利用率越高。

Other Abstract

Aiming at the shortage of water resources, competition in the water sector, anddifficulty in optimal allocation in the Yarkant River Basin in Xinjiang, the impact ofclimate change on the hydrological events in the Yeerqiang River Basin was studied.Based on the characteristics of the reservoirs in the Yarkant River Basin, a multi-target(power generation, irrigation, ecology, flood control) joint deployment of mountainreservoir-plain reservoirs was constructed. The model uses the cultural particle swarmalgorithm to solve the model, which significantly improves the accuracy and efficiencyof the model's solution. The Proposed different scheduling solutions shows that jointoperation of mountainous reservoir-plain reservoir groups can effectively increase theutilization rate of water resources and improve the climate change adaptability of waterresources utilization in Xinjiang. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The climate change in Yarkant River Basin during the past 55 years showedwarming and humidifying trend. The change was most significant in 1998. Themaximum changes of temperature and precipitation were 0.24°C/10 a and 7.41 mm/10a respectively. The extreme hydrological events in the Yarkant River Basin show asignificant increase trend, with the most significant change in June runoff. The increasein precipitation and accelerated glacial ablation are the main factor of influence in thefrequent occurrence of extreme hydrological events in the basin.(2) Constructed the joint regulation model of the reservoir regulation-plainreservoir group in the Yarkant River Basin, and solved the model based on the culturalparticle swarm algorithm to realize the multi-objective water resources integratedscheduling in the basin and accelerate the calculation efficiency. the evaporativeleakage reduction of the incremental optimization algorithm was 503 million m3, thenewly added power generation amount was 172 million KW•h, the ecological waterincrease amount was 27 million cubic meters, and the water resource utilization ratiowas 5.31%.(3) The comprehensive benefit of joint operating has been analyzed under climatechange. The results show that: in 2010-2030, integrated water resources utilization willincrease by 16.93%,17.32% and 17.59% in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5 three scenarios.The higher the temperature range, the greater the utilization.

Subject Area自然地理学
Document Type学位论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
王鹏赫. 叶尔羌河流域山区水库-平原水库联合调度研究[D]. 新疆乌鲁木齐. 中国科学院大学,2018.
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