中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所机构知识库

水资源安全是保障内陆河流域社会经济与生态环境协调发展的基本因素。然而在干旱区，由于下垫面和气候的作用，水资源在内陆河流域的时空分布极度不均，自然禀赋的特殊性和脆弱性容易导致旱涝事件多发、生态环境脆弱、水资源浪费严重和利用率不高等各种供需水的矛盾和问题。水资源的循环过程对气候变化最为敏感，在未来气候变化的影响下，将导致降水强度变化、蒸发增加、冰川退化等一系列问题，从而恶化干旱区水资源紧张状况；另外，由于人口的急剧增加，经济发展速度持续加快，对地区用水行业造成巨大的压力。全球气候模式（GlobalClimateModels，GCMs）对未来情景预估具有显著的效果，本文根据政府间气候变化专门委员会IPCC第五次评估报告推荐的未来温室气体典型浓度排放情景（Representativeconcentrationpathways，RCPs），结合历史1961~2010年的气象观测数据，把降尺度GCM输出数据输入水文模型，以便对未来气候变化情景进行模拟，从而分析未来水资源变化情景。以旬为时间尺度，选取了开都-孔雀河流域为研究区，考虑不同县市生产、生活、生态用水在不同用水时期的需水量，同时计算各地区市政、畜牧、二三产业、农业、生态等用水单元获得单位水量时的综合效益和未获得相应水量时的损失，对未来不同气候情景各用水行业进行时空水资源优化。首先，在基于对径流量统计分级的随机来水情境下，采用二阶段区间优化算法，对流域不同用水单元按照经济和生态综合效益最大化进行配置；其次，在上述研究的基础上，针对地区水资源时空分布不均的问题，利用湖泊对河川流量的调节作用，进行河湖水资源联合调度;采用线性规划方法有计划地规划湖（库）蓄水和下泻，使丰水期水资源不至浪费，又缓解了枯水期水量紧缺的状况，从而使不规律的河川来水在最大程度上匹配区域需水规律，以全年用水净收益最大为目标，计算不同的用水时期博斯腾湖蓄水和下泻水量；在对河湖联合调度蓄水和下泻研究的基础上，优化各旬市政、畜牧、二三产业、农业、生态等用水行业的水资源配置，实现水资源的精细化利用，从而达到缓解干旱区水资源紧张状况提升水资源利用效率的目的。主要结论如下：（1）随机来水时全区在中等来水水平历史模拟的收益为1553.77×108~3401.19×108元·a-1；河湖调度方法中2009年全区收益经济生态综合收益1908.30×108元·a-1，其中农业收益96.92×108元·a-1，第二产业384.94×108元·a-1，第三产业102.74×108元·a-1，分别为2009年实际收益的1.47倍、1.24倍、1.17倍。（2）在随机来水时RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP6.0、RCP8.5情景缺水量最大的月份都在6月，分别2.15×108~2.89×108m3、2.54×108~3.07×108m3、2.70×108~3.23×108m3、2.86×108~3.35×108m3；与之相比，河湖联合调水情况下缺水量最大的月份出现在7月为1.83×108m3，通过以上数字对比说明河湖联合调度能有效调节流域用水、提高水利用效率，在河流来水水量相对丰富和相对匮乏的的时期，湖泊的调蓄能力显得尤为突出。（3）与随机来水情境对比，河湖水联合调度可以避免1、2、11、12等月份水资源的浪费，并为4、5、8、10等水资源量相对短缺的月份增加供水，以实现水资源的高效利用，发挥最大的经济和生态综合效益。

Water resources security is the basic factor that guarantees the coordinateddevelopment of social economy and ecological environment in the inland river basin.However, in arid regions,due to the underlying surface and climate,the spatial andtemporal distribution of water resources in inland river basins is extremely uneven.Theparticularity and vulnerability of natural endowments can easily lead to various waterconflicts and problems between supply and demand,such as frequent drought and flooddisasters,ecological fragility,wasting and low inefficient using of of waterresources.The cyclical process of water resources is most sensitive to climatechange,under the influence of climate change in the future,it will lead to a series ofproblems such as changes in precipitation intensity,evaporation and glacialdegradation,thereby worsening the water stress situation in the arid region;Inaddition,due to the population explosion,the pace of economic development continuesto accelerate,putting tremendous pressure on the regional water industry.Global Climate Models (GCMs) have significant effects on future climate scenarioprojections.This paper is based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs)recommended by the IPCC 5 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change.Combining historical meteorological observation data from 1961 to2010,we use downscaled GCM output data to drive the hydrological model so as tosimulate future climate change scenarios and analyze future scenarios of waterresources changes.Taking the ten-day time scale,the Kaidu-kongque River Basin wasselected as the study area,and the water consumption of the production,living,andecological water consumption in different water use periods in different counties orcities was taken into account.The municipal,livestock, secondary and tertiaryindustries,and agriculture were also calculated. The integrated benefits of water such aseco-systems,ecological units etc,and losses when they do not receive correspondingwater volumes,optimize the space-time water resources of different water use industriesin different climate scenarios.Firstly,based on the stochastic water flow situation for thestatistical classification of runoff volume,a two-stage interval optimization algorithm is adopted to allocate the different water use units in the basin according to themaximization of economic and ecological comprehensive benefits; secondly,based onabove studies,the problem of uneven spatial and temporal distribution of waterresources,using lakes to regulate the flow of rivers,joint scheduling rivers and lakeswater;Using linear planning methods to plan the lake (reservoir) water storage anddrainage,so that reduce wasting water resources during the flood season,and remit thesituation of water shortage in dry season,so that make the irregular runoff waterresource to the maximumly match the regional water demand rule,with the goal of thelargest net income of water use throughout the year,to calculate the water storage andwater discharge of Bosten Lake during different water use periods;On the basis ofresearch on river and lake joint scheduling of water storage and drainage,we willoptimize the allocation of water resources using in the municipalities,livestock,secondary and tertiary industries, agriculture, and ecology etc,realize the refined use ofwater resources,so as to alleviate The tense situation of water resources in arid areas,enhances the efficiency of water resources utilization. The main conclusions are asfollows:(1)For the random incoming water,the historical simulation yield of the whole areaunder the middle water level is 1553.77×108~3401.19×108yuan·a-1;In the river andlake joint scheduling method,the comprehensive income of the whole region in 2009 is1908.30×108yuan·a-1.The income of agricultural sector was 96.92×108 yuan·a-1,secondary industry is 384.94×108yuan·a-1, and the tertiary industry is 102.74×108yuan·a-1, which was 1.47 times,1.24 times and 1.17 times respectively of the actualincome in 2009,So water resources scheduling can achieve greater benefits.(2)The maximum water shortages in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5scenarios were all in June at random water level is 2.15×108~2.90×108m3,2.54×108~3.07×108m3,2.70×108~3.23×108m3,2.86×108~3.35×108m3respectively;While the maximum water shortage in the river and lake joint scheduling is 1.83×108m3 inJuly.The joint scheduling of rivers and lakes can effectively regulate the water use inthe basin and increase the benefits of water use;In the period when the amount of water coming from the river is relatively abundant and relatively short, the lake's ability toadjust runoff is particularly prominent.(3)Compared with random incoming water scenarios, joint scheduling of rivers andlakes can avoid waste of water resources in January,February,November,December,andincrease water supply for months that relatively short such as April、 May、 August andOctober,in order to realize the efficient use of water resources,and the develop largestvalue from limited water resources.