KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 基于 DEA 模型的中亚地区水资源利用效率分析 | |
| Alternative Title | Assessment of Water Use Efficiency in Central Asia Based on DEA Model |
| 张姣优 | |
| Subtype | 硕士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 陈亚宁 |
| 2019-06-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学硕士 |
| Keyword | 水资源 利用效率 数据包络分析 主成分分析 中亚 Water resources Utilization efficiency Data envelopment analysis,Principal component analysis Central Asia. |
| Abstract | 水资源是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础，也是农业和工业生产中非常重要的自然资源。中亚地区处于亚欧大陆的内部，气候干旱，水资源分布不平衡。 水资源的储存总量并不是很少，但由于人们在开发利用水资源的过程中， 一方面由于国家之间的水争夺，另一方面，水资源利用效率低下，尤其是在农业用水方面，浪费严重， 导致该地区出现水资源紧张的局面。中亚地区与我国紧邻，位于一带一路的核心地带， 其社会经济和生态环境对我国一带一路的顺利推进具有重要的影响。 水资源问题是中亚地区最突出的社会环境问题，需要我们在一带一路建设中更加关注。本文以中亚地区的水资源为研究对象，基于 DEA 模型对中亚五国的水资源利用效率进行了分析。论文主要内容包括如下几个方面：一是，对中亚地区的水资源利用现状，以及存在的问题进行分析；其次，利用数据包络分析法（DEA模型）对中亚五国的水资源利用效率进行了评价，并运用主成分分析法，对中亚五国的农业水资源综合利用效率进行了对比分析；再是，对中亚地区水资源问题最为严峻的典型流域-咸海流域的水资源利用现状及农业水资源利用效率进行了统计分析。主要分析结果如下：1、基于 DEA 模型计算分析得出， 中亚五个国家的经济收益主要是依靠大量的水资源及劳动力投入来获得，水资源利用的技术有效性比较差。 整个中亚地区的平均水资源相对利用效率为 0.656，是我国水资源利用效率的 79.8%，美国和日本的 65.6%。其中，哈国的水资源相对利用效率最高（0.822），其次是塔国 0.794，乌国 0.741，吉国 0.544，土国最低，为 0.379。中亚五个非 DEA 有效国家经过在有 效 平 面 上 的 投 影 与调 整 ， 得 出 整个 中 亚 地 区 的工 业 用 水 量 可以 节 约57.854×108m3， 生活用水量可节约 48.688×108m3， 从业人员可节约 23.284×106，固定资产投资可节约 231.714 亿美元； 农业用水是中亚地区水资源消耗和水资源浪费最大的生产部门，节水潜力较大。2、利用主成分分析法得出，中亚五个国家的农业水资源综合利用效率存在地区差异，哈国的农业综合用水效率>乌国>土国>吉国>塔国。 各国的经济发展水平对农业水资源的综合利用效率具有较大影响。其中， 社会经济效益（第一主成分）， 对中亚五个国家农业水资源综合利用效率的贡献率 55.70%；资源利用效率（第二主成分），贡献率 26.22%；生态效益（第三主成分），贡献率 14.45%。另外， 根据影响中亚地区农业水资源利用效率的主要指标，中亚五个国家的灌溉水利用效率平均为 44.40%，即每灌溉 100m3 水，作物实际仅利用 44.4m3 的水，55.6%的水属于无益消耗，用水效率较低。 从经济效益来看， 哈萨克斯坦农业水资源利用的经济效益最高，达 0.5 美元/m3。从生态效益来看，乌兹别斯坦单位耕地面积投入的化肥量最高， 平均每公顷耕地投入 182kg 的化肥，是土壤盐渍化强度较严重的国家，生态问题最突出区域。3、 典型流域-咸海流域的水资源空间分布不平衡，水资源在各国的分配也不平衡。 在 2000-2014 年间，咸海流域的水体面积以每年 1048km2 的速率减少，水体面积比例 2.5%减少到 1.5%， 其中咸海的面积变化最剧烈， 面积由 2000 年的28119.37km2 减少至 2014 年的 11169.01km2，缩小了 60.28%。咸海流域的水资源利用，不仅主要用于农业灌溉，而且还用于水力发电。 为了发电， 位于上游的水库在非生长季释放的水量远大于生长季的释放量。各个国家的取水量主要集中在生长季，非生长季的取水量相对较少，其中乌兹别克斯坦分配的水量最高， 实际取水量也最高，且常年高于用水配额。4、咸海流域的水分生产力， 小麦每消耗立方米水的产量最大，其次是水稻和棉花。而作为经济作物的棉花，每消耗立方米水产生的经济价值最大，其次是粮食作物大米，小麦的水生产力最低。 2000 年至 2014 年，小麦平均每消耗立方米水的产出为 0.881kg 和 0.191 美元。水稻年均水生产力分别为 0.689kg/m3 和0.268 美元/m3，棉花年均水生产力分别为 0.451kg/m3 和 0.727 美元/m3。 2000 年至 2014 年，咸海流域作物的水分生产力（粮食产出） 呈现相对稳定的趋势，年均为 0.674kg/m3。由于受农作物价格影响，水分利用的经济效益呈上升趋势，年平均为 0.467 美元/m3。从空间分布来看，西北部的费尔干纳灌区和塔什干灌区具有较高的水分生产力。 |
| Other Abstract | Water resource is the material basis on which human beings live and develop. Itis also a very important natural resource in agriculture and industrial production.Central Asia is located in the interior of the Eurasian continent. The total amount ofwater resources is not very small, but in the process of developing and using waterresources, on the one hand, there is competition among countries for water resources,on the other hand, there is serious waste of water resources, especially in the aspect ofagricultural water use, the utilization efficiency of water resources is low, resulting inthe situation of water resources tension in this region. Central Asia is close to Chinaand lies in the core zone of One Belt and One Road. Its social economy and ecologicalenvironment have an important influence on the smooth promotion of One Belt andOne Road in China. Water resource is the most prominent social and environmentalproblem in Central Asia, which needs our more attention in One Belt and One Roadconstruction.This paper takes the water resources in Central Asia as the research object andanalyzes the water resources utilization efficiency of five Central Asian countriesbased on DEA model. The main content of the paper includes the following aspects:first, the status quo of water resources utilization in Central Asia and the existingproblems are analyzed; Secondly, the data envelopment analysis method (DEA model)is used to evaluate the water resource utilization efficiency of the five Central Asiancountries. Finally, the status quo of water resources utilization and the efficiency ofagricultural water resources utilization in Aral Sea Basin, a typical basin with the mostserious water resources problems in Central Asia, are analyzed statistically. The mainresearch results are as follows:1. According to the calculation and analysis based on DEA model, the benefits ofthe five countries in Central Asia mainly depend on a large amount of water resourcesinput and labor force input, and the technical efficiency of water resources utilizationis relatively poor. The average water use efficiency of the whole Central Asia is 0.656,which is 79.8% of that of China and 65.6% of that of the United States and Japan.Among them, Kazakhstan has the highest relative efficiency of water resources(0.822), followed by Tajikistan (0.794), Uzbekistan (0.741), Kyrgyzstan (0.544) andTurkmenistan (0.379). After the projection and adjustment on the effective plane of the five non-dea effective countries in Central Asia, it is concluded that the industrialwater consumption in the whole Central Asia region can be saved by 57.854×108m3,the domestic water consumption can be saved by 48.688×108 m3, the employees canbe saved by 23.284×106, and the fixed asset investment can be saved by 23.17 billionUSD. Agricultural water use is the production sector with the largest consumption andwaste of water resources in Central Asia, with great water-saving potential.2. According to the principal component analysis, there are regional differencesin the comprehensive utilization efficiency of agricultural water resources in fiveCentral Asian countries. Among them, the main factor affecting the comprehensiveutilization efficiency of agricultural water resources in five Central Asian countries issocio-economic benefit (the first principal component), contributing 55.70%.Resource utilization efficiency (the second principal component), the contribution rateof 26.22%; Finally, ecological efficiency (the third principal component) contributes14.45%. The level of economic development of various countries plays a significantrole in the comprehensive utilization efficiency of agricultural water resources. Inaddition, according to the main indexes affecting the utilization efficiency ofagricultural water resources in Central Asia, the average utilization efficiency ofirrigation water in five Central Asian countries is 44.40%, that is, for every 100 cubicmeters of water irrigated, only 44.4 cubic meters of water is actually used by crops,and 55.6% of water is useless consumption with low water efficiency. The economicbenefit of agricultural water resource utilization in Kazakhstan is the highest, reachingUSD 0.5m3. From the perspective of ecological benefits, the amount of fertilizer inputper unit of cultivated land is the highest in Uzbekistan. The average amount offertilizer input per hectare is 182kg, which is a country with severe soil salinizationand the most prominent ecological problem.3. The spatial distribution of water resources in the Aral Sea Basin withprominent water problems is unbalanced. In the past 15 years, the Aral Sea Basinwater area ratio decreased from 2.5% to 1.5%, at a rate of 1048km2 per year. The AralSea also decreased by 60.28% from 28,119.37km2 in 2000 to 11,169.01km2 in 2014.Water resource in the Aral Sea Basin was not only for agricultural irrigation, but alsofor hydropower. To generate electricity, reservoirs upstream release far more waterduring the off-season than during the growing season. The water withdrawal of eachcountry is mainly concentrated in the growing season, while the water withdrawal innon-growing season is relatively small. The actual water withdrawal in Uzbekistan is the highest, and is always higher than the water quota.4. In terms of water productivity in the Aral Sea Basin, wheat yields the most percubic meter of water consumed, followed by rice and cotton. Cotton, the cash crop,produces the most economic value per cubic metre of water consumed, followed byrice, the food crop, and wheat, which has the lowest water productivity. Between 2000and 2014, wheat produced an average of 0.881 kg and USD 0.191 per cubic metre ofwater consumed. The average annual water productivity of rice is 0.689kg/m3 and0.268$/m3 respectively, and that of cotton is 0.451kg/m3 and 0.727$/m3 respectively.From 2000 to 2014, the water productivity (grain output) of crops in the Aral SeaBasin showed a relatively stable trend, with an annual average of 0.674kg/m3.However, affected by crop prices, the economic benefit of water use shows an upwardtrend, with an average annual value of 0.467$/m3. From the perspective of spatialdistribution, the Fergana and Tashkent irrigation areas in the northwest have higherwater productivity. |
| Subject Area | 自然地理学 |
| Language | 中文 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15271 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 张姣优. 基于 DEA 模型的中亚地区水资源利用效率分析[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2019. |
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