EGI OpenIR
中国能源消费碳排放空间分异及驱动因子研究
Alternative TitleAnalysis of spatial heterogeneity and driver detection of energy-related carbon emission in China
蒋雪婷
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor王强
2019-06-30
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline理学硕士
Keyword能源消费碳排放 空间分异 驱动因子 脱钩 Energy-related Carbon Consumption Spatial Heterogeneity Driving Factor Decoupling
Abstract以全球变暖为代表的气候变化问题是二十一世纪人类面临的最严峻的挑战之一,无论是对环境还是社会经济发展均产生了严重的威胁,人类如何在面临气候变化挑战下寻求能源消费、温室气体排放与经济发展协调发展之间的平衡的方式是一直以来也是全球范围内备受关注的重要科学问题。我国为实现 2030年单位国内生产总值的二氧化碳排放量比 2005 年下降 60%-65%的减排任务,不同区域的共同努力是基本的保障。在此背景下,本文从国家层面和区域层面针对全国以及我国不同经济分区碳排放量变化以及碳排放变化和经济发展的可能性脱钩关系展开了讨论。本文借助变异系数、 q 统计量分析我国能源消费碳排放空间分异,使用地理探测器分析其驱动因子,从全局和区域两个视角对经济发展方式、能源消费情况和碳排放的变化趋势以及相互关系及作用机制进行了探讨,针对东部、中部、西部和东北四大地区的协同低碳发展提供的政策建议,对我国节能减排提供有益思路。一般来说,要求一个国家放弃本国的经济发展机会来完成总的减排的目标是不现实的,因此,如何在不对经济发展造成影响的情况下,实现减排是亟需解决的问题,对于这一问题的研究具有重要意义。我国作为最大的二氧化碳排放国和一次能源使用国,也承担了更多国际赋予的减排责任,而随着我国经济发展步入新常态,如何减少能源消耗,提高能源使用效率,实现节能减排,高效平稳发展,建设资源节约型和环境友好型社会,也对我国提出了新的挑战,需要各个区域的共同努力。本文从中国经济发展与区域能源消费演进特征,全国能源消费碳排放空间分布格局及影响因素以及全国及各区域经济增长与碳排放作用机制三个方面开展分析,通过运用地理探测器对能源消费碳排放空间异质性及变化驱动因子进行探测分析,从时空两个维度对碳排放的变化以及空间分异演变进行分析,初步得出一系列结论。(1)影响我国碳排放年际变化的前三位的影响因子分别为:人均国内生产总值(地区生产总值)、人口和城镇劳动力供给能力。其中,除了能源强度外,其他因子对碳排放的变化是一种正向影响因子,这说明目前我国在能源效率提高上已经取得了一定的进步。(2)除了经济发展与能源强度、 能源强度与石油比重这两组关系之外,其他各个因子间是双因子增强作用,而这两组呈现出非线性增强的作用,相较于其他几组,他们的共同作用后对我国总的能源消费碳排放量的增强效果更为显著。(3)除海南外,各个省及地区在 1995至 2016年间均呈现出弱脱钩的状态,虽然暂时未达到最理想的强脱钩状态,但总的来说,随着经济的发展,碳排放增长的速度得到了一定程度的减缓,尤其是东北地区和中部地区。(4)东部地区最影响脱钩的因子是人均 GDP,其次是能源强度因素和人口因素,能源结构因素和碳排放因子系数对脱钩进程影响相对较小。从作用的方式来说,能源强度因子和能源结构因子是能够对脱钩起到正向的促进作用,其余的因素主要是起到阻碍脱钩进程的作用。(5)对中部地区来说,主要的促进脱钩的因子是能源强度和能源结构因子,但人类经济活动因素、人口因素是实现强脱钩状态的主要的阻碍。相较于东部地区而言, 中部地区的能源强度对各个省份带来的作用相对较为平均,且人口因素对脱钩状态带来的阻碍相对较小,能源结构仍然是促进脱钩的主要正向因子。(6)西部地区最大的阻碍因子是人类经济活动,且相较于东部地区和中部地区,经济的影响更为明显。此外,能源结构因子相较与前两个地区而言,在大多数地区是会拖慢强脱钩的进程,这说明目前在这些地区能源使用结构仍然非常不合理。
Other AbstractGlobal warming has become one of the most severe problems human beings areconfronted in the 21st century among all the climate change issues. It has caused seriousconsequences to both the environment and the social and economic development, inthis case, how to balance energy consumption, corresponding greenhouse gas emissionsand economic growth is always the focus of the scientific research all around the world.China has promised to reduce its carbon intensity (defined as carbon dioxide emissionsper unit of GDP) by 60–65% of the 2005 level by the end of 2030. In this context,geographical detector model is applied to analyze the spatial heterogeneity and drivingfactors of energy-related carbon emissions in China from the global and regionalperspectives, discussing energy consumption and carbon emissions trends andmechanisms of their interrelationships with the economic development mode in China.This paper analyses the spatial heterogeneity of China's energy-related carbonemissions via the coefficient of variation and q statistic, the geographical detector isalso applied to analyze its driving factors. The relationship and mechanism of economicdevelopment, energy consumption and carbon emissions have been discussed from thenational and regional perspectives. The policies for coordinated low-carbondevelopment in the eastern, central, western and north-eastern regions are discussed. Itis recommended to provide useful ideas for energy saving and emission reduction inChina. Generally speaking, it is unrealistic to require one country to abandon itseconomic development opportunities to complete the goal of total emission reduction.Therefore, figuring out how to achieve emission mitigation goal without affectingeconomic development is an urgent target. Studies concerning this issue is also of vitalimportance. As the largest carbon dioxide emitter and a key energy-consuming country,China has also undertaken more international responsibilities of emission reduction. AsChina's economic development enters a new normal mode, finding ways to reduceenergy consumption, improve energy efficiency, and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction at this stage is important to China. Also, the efficient and stabledevelopment and the construction of a resource-saving and environment-friendlysociety have also brought new challenges to China and require joint efforts of variousregions. This paper analyzes the characteristics of China's economic development andregional energy consumption evolution, the spatial distribution and the influencingfactors of national energy-related carbon emissions as well as national and regionaleconomic growth and carbon emission mechanism. The heterogeneity of emissionspace and the driving factors of change are analyzed. The changes of carbon emissionsand the evolution of spatial heterogeneity are analyzed from two dimensions of timeand space, and a series of conclusions are drawn,(1) The top three impact factors affecting the interannual variation of China'scarbon emissions are: per capita GDP (regional GDP), population and urban laborsupply capacity. Among them, in addition to energy intensity, other factors are a positiveimpact factor on carbon emissions, indicating that China has achieved certainimprovements in energy efficiency.(2) Except for the interaction of economic development factor and energy intensity,along with the interaction of energy intensity and the proportion of oil, most of themenhance each other with a bilinear relationship, however, the two groups show anonlinear relationship. In other words, they have more significant enhancement impactson China's energy-related carbon emission changes.(3) All provinces and regions showed a weak decoupling state from 1995 to 2016except for Hainan. Although they have not reached the optimal strong decoupling statefor the time being, however, the carbon emission has been cut to a certain degree,especially in the Northeast and Central regions.(4) The most significant factor in the eastern region is GDP per capita, followedby energy intensity and population. Energy mix factors and carbon emission factor haverelatively minor impact on the decoupling process. In terms of their effects, energyintensity and energy mix can promote the decoupling process, by contrast, the otherfactors primarily play a role in hindering the decoupling process.(5) For the central region, the main factors that promote decoupling are energy intensity and energy mix, but human economic activity factors and population factorsare the main obstacles to achieving strong decoupling. Compared with the easternregion, energy intensity in the central region is relatively average in each province, andthe demographic factors bring relatively less obstacles for decoupling. Energy mix isstill the main positive effect to promote the decoupling process.(6) Human economic effect is the biggest obstacle in the western region and theeconomic impact here is more significant than those in the eastern and central regions.In addition, the energy mix factor is not as significant as those in eastern or centralregions, indicating that the current energy consumption pattern in these regions are stillquite unreasonable.
Subject Area人文地理学
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15282
Collection中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
研究系统
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
蒋雪婷. 中国能源消费碳排放空间分异及驱动因子研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2019.
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