EGI OpenIR
咸海地区气候变化、水量平衡及其影响因素研究
Alternative TitleSTUDY ON CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER BALANCE AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS IN THE ARAL SEA AREA
ASSIYA MASSAKBAYEVA
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor吉力力·阿不都外力
2019-06-30
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline理学硕士
Keyword气候变化 水资源利用 土地利用 水平衡 Climate change Water use Land use Water balance
Abstract咸海位于哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦交界处,在调节天气,工农业和生态供水方面发挥了重要作用。自 1960 年以来,在气候变化和人类不合理的土地利用活动影响下,咸海开始不断萎缩,削弱了其气候调节功能,导致了干旱化和盐尘暴频发。 因此,本研究试图回答咸海地区的水文和气候变化对咸海造成的影响,本研究考察了 1960-2016 年咸海和阿拉尔地区的气候变化(降水和温度),咸海的水文特征(水量,水位,盐度, 1960 年至 2014 年的水面面积)和水 1960-2014 年咸海(小型,大型咸水)与 1960 年至 2012 年咸海流域自然资源(水资源和土地资源)的平衡。本研究的主要内容和结果如下:1. 基于 1960-2016 年的气温和降水数据,使用 Mann-Kendall 准则(MK)和创新趋势分析法(ITAM)分析了咸海地区气候变化趋势。结果表明,最高温度上升,速度为 0.2°C/10a(P <0.01),最低温度以每十年 0.7°C 的速度上升。 Mann-Kendall 静态试验表明,平均温度趋势增加速度为 0.3°C /10 年(P <0.01)。 年降水的度显示没有显着的趋。 气温和降水之间的相关性为 r = 0.5。季节气候指标分析结果显示,该区域绝对最大气温的长期动态变化最小,主要在秋季和夏季增加。而且在较为寒冷的半年中,最低温度升高。 由于冷暖季气温升高,导致平均气温变化上升。 本研究通过 Braslavsky 和 Nurgaliev,Shulyakovsky 以及州水文研究所(SHI)的公式计算了 2002-2014 年的蒸发量。结果表明,在 1960-1987 年期间,咸海的蒸发量从 1960 年的 71.13 km3 减少到 1986 年的 41.24 km3。1987-2014 年,小咸海的年蒸发量平均为 3.32 km3, 大咸海的蒸发量平均为 24.65 km3。 以上研究结果将有助于更深入地了解咸海和阿拉尔地区的气候变化。2. 1960-2012 年, 咸海地区灌溉用水量平均为 91.6 km3 /a。 期间, 总入湖流量平均为 104 km3 /a。 1960-2010 年,乌兹别克斯坦的平均灌溉土地为 3676 千公顷,土库曼斯坦为 1203.6 万公顷,塔吉克斯坦为 643.17 千公顷,哈萨克斯坦为 492.9 千公顷,吉尔吉斯斯坦为 734.2 千公顷。 1950-2012 年,咸海地区的灌溉面积不断增加。在整个研究时段内,咸海地区的灌溉面积平均为 690 万公顷。因此,这一时期的用水量平均增加了 104.4 km3。3. 1987 年至 2014 年大型和小型咸海水文资料的比较显示,小型咸海的水量增加了6%,表面积增加了 4%,但大咸海的这两个指标减少了。 期间,大咸海的水位从 1987 年的 40m 减少到 2014 年的 26.5m,而小咸海的水位从 1987 年的 40.8 m 增加到 2014 年的43m。大咸海湖水的盐度持续增加,而在小咸海湖水的盐度降低。 阿姆河和锡尔河流入大咸海的年流量从 1987 年的 7 km3 减少到 2014 年的 3.4 km3,而小咸海的年流入量从 1987年的 1 km3 增加到 2014 年的 5 km3。 本研究采用水量平衡法, 分析了 1960-2014 年咸海水量平衡。观测期间咸海的水量平衡主要取决于河流、 降水和蒸发。总降水量趋势略有下降,而蒸发量呈增加趋势。 1987-2014 年,大咸海的平均平衡量为每年-15.93 km3,而小型咸海的平衡量为 2.53 km3。
Other AbstractThe Aral Sea іs located within Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in the northern part of CentralAsia. The Aral Sea has played an important role in weather correction, water supply for theenvironment, agriculture and industry. Since 1960, the Aral began to decline. This was due toboth natural variability and human activity, including greenhouse gas emissions and the impactof land use changes in coverage. Improper human activity and climate change led to large-scaledrying of the Aral Sea, which weakens its climate control buffer, increases aridity and causes theappearance of salty sand dust. Therefore, this study attempts to answer how the hydrological andclimatic changes in the Aral Sea region affect the state of the sea. Assessment of the impact ofclimate change and human activities at sea is important for the planning, management, andconfiguration of water resources in the region.This study examines the climatic changes (precipitation and temperature) in the Aral Seaand Aral region between 1960-2016, hydrological characteristics of the Aral Sea (water volume,water level, salinity, water surface area from 1960 to 2014), and the water balance of the AralSea (Small, Large Aral) in the period 1960-2014 year and natural resources (water resource andland resource) of the Aral Sea basin from 1960 to 2012. The main content and results of thisstudy are as follows:1. The trend of clime conditions (temperature, precipitation) of the Aral Sea region wasanalyzed by using the Mann Kendall trend test and Innovative trend analysis method. In thisstudy, Regression to evaluate hydro-meteorological Relationships was used to evaluate changesin the climate conditions of annual mean temperature and precipitation. Investigating data ontemperature and precipitation in the Aral Sea and Aral region during 1960-2016, we analyzedtrends using the Mаnn-Kendall criterion (MK) and Innovative trend analysis method (ITAM).Our results showed that the maximum temperature rises by (P <0.01) and at a speed of 0,2 ° C /decade, and the minimum temperature also rises with each decade at a speed of 0,7 ° C. TheMann-Kendall static test showed that the trend of average temperatures increases by (P <0.01)and at a speed of 0,3 ° C / decade. The Innovative trend analysіs method showed a positive trend.Annual precipitation showed no significant trend. The correlation between air temperature andprecipitation was r= 0.5. Based on seasonal climatic indicators, our results showed that in thisregion the smallest changes occurred in the long-term dynamics of absolute maximum airtemperatures. They increase in the autumn, in the summer, in the warm halves of the year andpartly in the cold. And the minimum temperature increased in the cold half of the year. And thetrend of changes in average air temperatures is an increase in average annual air temperaturesdue to their increase in the cold and warm half of the year. For the period of 2002-2014, we have calculated the evaporation by the formulas by Braslavsky and Nurgaliev, Shulyakovsky, andState Hydrological Institute (SHI). The results of the data analysis show that in the period 1960-1987, evaporation in the Aral Sea decreased from 71.13 km3 in 1960 to 41.24 km3 in 1986. In theperiod (1987-2014) evaporation in the Smal Aral Sea rate averaged 3.32 km3 per year. Duringthis period (1987-2014) evaporation in the Large Aral Sea averaged 24.65 km3. It is assumed thatthe results of this study will contribute to a deeper understanding of climate change in the AralSea and Aral region.2. The use of water resources for irrigation in the Aral Sea region in the period (1960-2012) averaged 91.6 km3 / year. Over the entire perіod, the total water intake amounted to anaverage of 104 km3 / year. For the entire period (1960-2010), the average irrigated land inUzbekistan was 3676 thousand hectares, in Turkmenistan 1203.6 thousand, in Tajikistan 643.17thousand, in Kazakhstan 492.9 thousand and in Kyrgyzstan 734.2 thousand hectares. In theperiod 1950-2012, the irrigated area in the Aral Sea region grows. Over the entire period, theirrigated area in the Aral Sea region averaged 6.9 million hectares. Accordingly, water intakeduring this period increased.3. Comparison of hydrological data between the Large and Small Aral Sea from 1987 to2014 showed that the volume of water increased by 6%, and the surface area - by 4% in theSmall Aral Sea, but these two indicators in the Large Aral Sea decreased. During the sameperiod, the water level in the large Aral Sea decreased from 40m in 1987 to 26.5 in 2014, and inthe Small Aral Sea, the water level increased from 40.8 in 1987 to 43 m in 2014. After thedivision into the Small and Large Aral in the Large Aral Sea, an increase in the salinity of thewater continues, and in the Small Aral Sea, the salinity of the water decreases. The annual inflowof the river to the Large Aral Sea decreased from 7 km3 in 1987 to 3.4 km3 in 2014, and in theSmall Aral Sea, the annual inflow of the river increased from 1 km3 in 1987 to 5 km3 in 2014.We analyzed the water balance of the Aral Sea for the period 1960-2014 by using the waterbalance method. The water balance of the Aral Sea during the observation period is mainlydetermined by the river flow, precipitation, and evaporation. The overall precipitation trenddecreased slightly, respectively, while the general trend of increasing evaporation is high. In theperiod (1987-2014), an average water balance in the Large Aral Sea was -15.93 km3 per year,and in the Small Aral Sea, water balance was 2.53 km3.
Subject Area自然地理学
Language英语
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15298
Collection中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
研究系统
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
ASSIYA MASSAKBAYEVA. 咸海地区气候变化、水量平衡及其影响因素研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2019.
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