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气候变化与人类活动影响下的锡尔河流域两大水库水量动态变化过程研究
Alternative TitleDYNAMICS EVOLUTION OF THE TWO LARGEST RESERVOIRS IN THE SYRDARYA RIVER BASIN UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES
BOTAGOZ ISSINA
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor吉力力·阿不都外力
2019-06-30
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline理学硕士
KeywordShardara 水库 Toktogul水库 Aydar-Arnasay 湖泊系统 气候变化 人类活动 Shardara reservoir Toktogul reservoir Aydar- Arnasay Lakes System Climate Change Human Activities
Abstract中亚最棘手的问题是缺乏淡水和相关的跨界水资源共享问题。评估气候变化和人类活动对水库的影响对于 Syrdarya River Catchment 的水资源规划,管理和配置非常重要。Syrdarya 河流域的区域在上游部分在冬季交叉寒冷和多雨,在低地区域处于温暖干旱的气候条件下。根据观测数据了解发生的气候变化和人类活动及其对水库水情的影响,有利于未来的水管理预测。选择 Syrdarya River Catchment 的 Toktogul 和 Shardra 水库作为研究对象,本文估算了人类活动和气候变化对水库水情的影响。该研究调查了 1980 年至 2016 年期间 Toktogul 和 Shardara 水库地区的气候变化(平均温度,降水和蒸发)。 水库的水系(流入,流出 1980 至 2016 年),从 Shardara 水库释放到 Aydar-Arnasay 湖泊系统(1992-2016)和 Toktogul 水库的水域(1992-1993,2001-2002,2011- 2012 年, 2015-2016), Shardara 水库(1987-1988,1992-1993,2001-2002, 2014-2015)。 1980 - 2010 年 Syrdarya 河流域水库蓄水量, 1980 - 2013 年 Syrdarya 河流域灌溉面积。 本研究的主要内容和结果如下:1. 基于长期数据,线性回归测试和创新趋势分析用于分析 Toktogul 和 Shardara 水库区域的当地气候变化趋势。我们的分析表明,在托克托古尔油藏区,温度上升了 0.4℃/年代,蒸发量增加了 16.5 mm/年代,降水量增加了 3.6 mm/年代。结果表明, Shardara 水库区 1980 - 2016 年气温上升 0.3℃/年代,降水量增加 15.1 mm /年代。基于季节气候指标(平均气温,降水量),我们使用 Mann-Kendall 趋势检验分析了 1980 年至 2016 年期间Toktogul 和 Shardara 水库区冬季,春季,夏季和秋季的气候变化。结果表明,两个水库区春,夏,秋季平均气温均显着升高。2. 根据长期数据, Mann-Kendall 趋势试验用于确定 1980 年至 2016 年期间 Toktogul和 Shardara 水库的水系(流入,流出)趋势。使用 Mann-Kendall 趋势检验表明,在显着水平上, Toktogul 水库和 Shardara 水库的流入和流出在 1980 年至 2016 年期间呈现积极趋势,并且 Aydar-Arnasay 湖泊系统的水排放趋势在此期间显着下降 1992 年至 2016 年。3. 在这项工作中,在 Toktogul 水库的 1992-1993,2001-2002,2011-2012,2015-2016 期间以及 Shardara 水库的 1987-1988,1992-1993,2001-2002, 2014-2015 期间我们计算非植被,植被期内水域面积的变化。包括归一化差异水指数(NDWI)的支持用于从图像数据中提4. 这项工作调查了 Syrdarya 河流域水库总有效水量和有用水量的增加。它在 1980年相当于总水量 35751 和 26845 万立方米。它显着上升,因此我们的日期是 2010 年水量41138 和 31485 有用百万分之三的总和。河流域的灌溉面积也增加了。如果它是 1980 年的 2992 万公顷,但 2013 年的数量是 3179 万公顷。5. 人类活动和气候变化是导致 Syrdarya 河流域水库水系变化的驱动因素。SyrdaryaRiver 盆地中部的人类活动影响更大。取地表水。
Other AbstractThe most sophisticated problems for Central Asia are scarcity of fresh water and relatedtrans boundary water-sharing. Evaluation of impacts of climate change and human activities onreservoirs are important for water resources planning, management and configuration in theSyrdarya River Catchment. Regions of the Syrdarya River Basin crossed cold and rainy in winterin the upstream part and warm and arid climate conditions in the low lands. Understanding thehappened climate change and human activities and their influence on water regime of reservoirsbased on observed data is good for future water management prediction. Selecting Toktogul andShardra reservoirs in the Syrdarya River Catchment as the study subjects, this paper estimatedthe impacts of human activities and climate change on water regime of reservoirs.This study examines the climatic changes (mean temperature, precipitation andevaporation) in the Toktogul and Shardara reservoirs region for the period 1980-2016. The waterregime of the reservoirs (inflow, outflow 1980 to 2016), releases from the Shardara reservoir intothe Aydar-Arnasay Lakes System (1992-2016) and water area of the Toktogul reservoirs (1992-1993, 2001-2002, 2011-2012, 2015-2016), Shardara reservoir (1987-1988, 1992-1993, 2001-2002, 2014-2015 ). The water volume of reservoirs in the Syrdarya River Basin from 1980 to2010, irrigation area in the Syrdarya River Basin for the 1980-2013 period. The main content andresults of this study are as follows:1. Based on long term data, linear regression test and Innovative Trend Analysis wereused to analyze the trend of local climate change in the Toktogul and Shardara reservoirs region.Our analysis showed that the temperature increased by rate of 0.4 ⁰C/decade, evaporation by 16.5mm/decade, precipitation raised by 3.6 mm/decade in the period 1980 -2016 in the Toktogulreservoir region. Results showed that the temperature increased by 0.3 ⁰C/decade, precipitationraised by 15.1 mm/decade in the period 1980 -2016 in the Shardara reservoir region. Based onthe seasonal climate indicators (mean temperature, precipitation) we analyzed climate change inthe winter, spring, summer and autumn periods of the Toktogul and Shardara reservoir region forthe period 1980 - 2016 by using Using Mann-Kendall trend test. Results showed that meantemperature in spring, summer, autumn periods increased at the significance level in the bothreservoirs region.2. Accordingly to long term data, Mann-Kendall trend test was to determine trend ofwater regime (inflow, outflow) of the Toktogul and Shardara reservoirs for the period 1980-2016. Using Mann-Kendall trend test showed that at significance level the inflow and outflow ofthe Toktogul reservoir and Shardara reservoirs have positive trend for the period 1980 – 2016 and the trend of water discharge to Aydar-Arnasay Lakes system decreased at significance levelin the period 1992-2016.3. In this work, for the 1992-1993, 2001-2002, 2011-2012, 2015-2016 periods in theToktogul reservoir and for the 1987-1988, 1992-1993, 2001-2002, 2014-2015 periods in theShardara reservoir we calculated changes on water area within in non-vegetation, vegetationperiods. Support including Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was used for extractionof surface water from image data.4. This work investigated that total and useful water volume of reservoirs increased inSyrdarya River Basin. It was equal total of water volume 35751 and useful 26845 mln.m3 in1980. It significantly rose, accordingly our dates it was total of water volume 41138 and31485 useful mln.m3 in 2010. Also irrigated area increased in the River Basin. If it was 2992thousand hectares in 1980, but it was amount 3179 thousand hectares in 2013.5. Human activities as well as climate change are driving factors that induced changes onwater regime of reservoirs in the Syrdarya River Basin. The impacts of human activities are evengreater in the middle part Syrdarya River Basin.
Subject Area自然地理学
Language英语
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15299
Collection中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
研究系统
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
BOTAGOZ ISSINA. 气候变化与人类活动影响下的锡尔河流域两大水库水量动态变化过程研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2019.
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