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新疆天山山区水库群对周边气温和降水的影响研究——以喀什河为例
Alternative TitleA case study of Kashi River: The change of temperature and precipitation near reservoir in the Tianshan Mountains of Xinjiang
白磊
Subtype博士
Thesis Advisor李兰海 ; 王权
2019-06-30
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline理学博士
Keyword多元融合降水 固态降水 WRF 模式 湖泊效应 Blended sources precipitation solid precipitation weather research forecast lake effect
Abstract在中国西北和西南的大型水电开发过程中,山区各个主要河流上都建造了大型水电工程。新疆天山山区,是新疆主要河流的发源地。 目前, 这些地区已经建成水电基地。而这些水库在高寒山区建立,与中国东部的水库产生的效应不同。本研究以新疆伊犁喀什河吉林台水电站为案例研究,通过站点数据、模式数据和遥感数据进行深入分析。在研究过程中,首先,以地面观测数据为真值,对本论文中使用的格点化模式数据和遥感数据进行评估。其次,使用蒙特卡洛方法重建百年时间内气温和降水, 明确流域内百年气候变化趋势,消除区域气候波动。再次,在相邻区域气候格局近似、 相邻时段气候格局相关的假说基础上,选取喀什河流域水库附近的尼勒克站作为代表站,与相邻站点建立线性和非线性关系的统计模型,分析水库建成对于尼勒克站的影响。随后,利用经过评估后的格点化降水数据分析水库建成前后的多年降水空间变化,分析水库建成后影响的区域。最终, 得出以下结论:1、在 CFSR 再分析数据、 CHIRPS 遥感降水数据、 PERSIANN-CDR 遥感降水数据和 MSWEP V1 多源融合降水数据评估工作中, 发现 MSWEP V1 降水数据在年际和年内的统计指标均优于其他三套降水数据。 在对 WRF 长时间区域气候模拟数据评估中,发现 WRF 输出的气温和降水数据在年际尺度上, WRF 模式年平均气温和年降水距平观测气温和降水的距平分布整体上趋势吻合较好。2、在百年尺度上,伊犁河流域的气温和降水都呈现增加的趋势,尤其是气温的增加趋势更加明显。而降水处于波动中增加。 伊犁河谷, 山区和平原地区1931~1960 年是百年间气温较低时期, 1991~2010 年是温度最高时期,山区和平原气温分别达到 1.4℃和 6.3℃。在年内尺度,盆地内山区冬季气温百年间变幅较大,夏季气温变幅较小。气温的增幅主要以冬季增幅为主。3、在站点尺度上, 2005 年水库建成后尼勒克的气温和降水,呈现显著的由水库引起的湖泊效应。在暖季,气温偏冷,冬季呈现不同程度的偏暖。对于降水,冬季相对于水库建成前增多,夏季减少。4、在尼勒克站,降雪事件主要发生在-5~2℃气温区间,而并不是气温越冷、降雪越多。 1985~2005 年区域的降雪量较多,而 2005~2008 年之间尼勒克及周边站点的降雪量均处于贫雪状态, 随后降雪增加。 而 2005 年这个突变是由水库修建而导致的区域气候突变现象。5、基于多源融合技术的 MSWEP 降水数据,反映出水库的修建对于喀什河上游的影响较大,降水呈现增加现象,而在下游降水在全年、冷季和暖季都存在不同程度降水减少现象。
Other AbstractIn western China, the energy companies have constructed many hydropowerreservoirs in major rivers originated from mountainous areas. Tianshan Mountains, isthe origin of rivers in Xinjiang. At present, hydropower reservoirs have been deployedin these major rivers in Tianshan Mountains, which have high altitude andsurrounding is covered with snowcover in winter. Therefore, the environmental effectcaused by these reservoirs is distinguished from it in plain areas of eastern China. Inthe purpose of identified and quantitatively analyzed environmental effect caused byhydropower reservoir, this study chooses one supper hydropower as a case study,which is named Jilintai and located on Kashi River, Xinjiang. First, this studyevaluated the gridded datasets from satellite retrieved precipitation and numericalweather prediction model. Second, this study uses Monte Carlo method to constructthe series of temperature and precipitation on centennial scale removing the trend ofregional climate change. Third, with assumption that the regions had the similarclimate change pattern with neighboring regions’, this study uses an official weatherstation named Nileke as reference station. And the linear and nonlinear statisticalmodels were trained for obtaining the series if there were no reservoir in accordancewith the assumption. With the observation and reconstructed data series, this studycomprehensively analysis the change in reservoir and spatial pattern change. Themain conclusions show as follows.First, with comprehensive evaluation of the global atmospheric reanalysis ofClimate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), the satellite retrieved precipitationdataset of Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS),the satellite retrieved precipitation dataset of PERSIANN Precipitation Climate DataRecord (PERSIANN-CDR), and the blended precipitation dataset of Multi-SourceWeighted-Ensemble Precipitation Version 1.0 (MSWEP V1), it is found MSWEP V1outperform than other datasets by statistical metrics on different temporal scales. A long-term regional climate simulation dataset by Weather Research Forecast model(WRF), which is covered the region of the Northwestern China in 1979–2013, is alsoevaluated. The anomaly series in WRF is in accordance with the observation inXinjiang regions.Second, it is found the annual precipitation and annual temperature had shownincreasing trend in the last hundred years, especially the annual temperatureincreasing significantly. And the annual precipitation was increasing with fluctuation.The plain and alpine regions in Ili river basin had the coldest climate in 1931–1960,and the warmest climate in 1991–2010, which annual temperature could reach 1.4℃and 6.3℃, respectively. In a year, the monthly temperature in winter has largervariation than the one in summer. The increasing of annual temperature was mainlycontributed by the increasing of temperature in winter.Third, due to the significant change of temperature and precipitation, Lake Effecthad occurred in Nileke. Summer temperature was colder than the ones beforeconstruction of reservoir. In addition, winter temperature was warmer than before. Forprecipitation, winter precipitation had more precipitation than before in contrast toless precipitation in summer.Fourth, Snowfall events normally occurred in the temperature range of -5–2℃. Itis not the colder temperature and more snowfall. In 1985–2005, kashi River Basin hasmore snowfall than in 2005–2008. This phenomenon was led by the construction ofhydropower reservoir.Fifth, with the multiple sources precipitation of MSWEP, it is found that theupper stream of Kashi River Basin had more precipitation. By contrast, the lowerstream had less precipitation in cold season, warm season and the whole year.es
Subject Area自然地理学
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15307
Collection中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
研究系统
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
白磊. 新疆天山山区水库群对周边气温和降水的影响研究——以喀什河为例[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2019.
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