EGI OpenIR
中亚地区农业水土资源匹配及其利用分区研究
Alternative TitleResearch on Matching Characeristics and Utilization Zoning of Agricultural Water and Land Resources in Central Asia
柴晨好
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor周宏飞
2019-06-30
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline理学硕士
Keyword中亚地区 水热积指数 广义农业水土资源 匹配特征 主成分聚类分析 Central Asia Hydrothermal product index Generalized agricultural water and land resources Matching characeristics Principal component clustering analysis
Abstract水土资源的合理分配利用是中亚地区的核心问题之一,关系到中亚地区的粮食安全和社会稳定。中亚地区是世界上重要的棉花和粮食主产区, 前苏联的解体,打破了原有的水资源分配格局, 随着人口的快速增长,中亚地区水土资源供需矛盾日益突出,严重影响了区域农业生产和生态环境的可持续发展。 研究气候变化背景下中亚各国水土资源的匹配和分区,可以为中亚国家水土资源开发和农业生产提供支撑,对于“丝绸之路经济带” 核心区域的社会稳定具有重要意义。本文利用收集的气象、水资源、土地利用和遥感数据, 对中亚地区水土资源开发利用现状进行了分析,并引入水热积指数作为水热因子,运用线性趋势分析、偏相关分析法,研究了 2001 ~ 2015 年中亚地区水热资源的时空变化特征,采用广义农业水土资源匹配系数和水资源当量系数,对农业水土资源匹配特征及短缺程度进行评估, 在此基础上, 依据 DPSIR 模型和供需理论构建的分区指标结构框架(SDCSL),运用主成分分析和聚类分析法对区域水土资源利用状况进行分区,最后提出实现不同分区农业水土资源有效匹配的措施和途径。 主要研究结果如下:(1) 中亚宜农土地面积约有 17219.24 × 104 hm2,是现有耕地面积的两倍,可开垦土地资源潜力大,其中哈萨克斯坦约占 87.15%, 由于水资源在区域间分布不均衡,水资源调配能力不足将会制约中亚西部和南部后备耕地资源的开发。1995 ~ 2015 年其他土地利用类型主要向耕地和城市用地转移, 其中 1995 ~ 2005年土地利用动态增减波动性最大,以城市用地和耕地表现显著,林地和湿地波动幅度最小, 说明人类活动对土地利用变化的影响增强。(2) 2000 年以来, 中亚地区水热条件总体上得到改善, 年积温在 3000℃以上的区域向北扩展显著, 年降水量 ≥ 200 mm 区域向南部和西部扩展, 有利于农业的生产力提高。 相对于单一气候因子,水热积指数能够反映区域水热条件的综合效应。 年均水热积指数呈先下降后上升的变化趋势, 2009 年之后中亚地区水热条件逐渐变好。 总体来说, 水热条件南部好于北部,东部优于西部,东南部山麓平原和盆地地区水热条件最优。年均水热积指数有 45.95%的区域呈上升趋势,54.05%的区域呈下降趋势。降水是影响研究区水热积指数变化的主导因素。(3)研究区农业水土资源匹配程度整体表现为南部优于北部,且蓝水资源比例越大,农业水土资源匹配系数越高。吉尔吉斯斯坦农业水土匹配状况优于哈萨克斯坦, 同时两国南部地区农业水土资源匹配程度优于北部地区。整体上哈萨克斯坦南部的南哈萨克斯坦州、阿拉木图州、江布尔州和吉尔吉斯斯坦各州农业水土资源匹配程度最好。 农业水土资源当量系数的结果表明,研究区农业水土资源总体处于失衡状态。(4) 研究区农业水土资源利用大体可分为四种类型,分别为:依靠天然降水为主的雨养农业区、山麓平原谷地灌溉农业区、山地灌溉农业区以及农业比例较低的工矿业区。 其中第二和第一类型区水土热资源匹配程度较高,农业生产潜力较大。 对于雨养农业区和灌溉农业区,可以通过调整农业用水结构中蓝绿水之间的比例达到农业水土资源匹配的相对平衡。同时要推动农田水利工程建设,加强水土资源综合管理,改进农业生产技术,提高水资源利用效率,加快农业生产现代化步伐,增强对气候变化的应对和适应能力。
Other AbstractRational allocation and utilization of water and land resources is one of the coreissues in Central Asia, which is related to regional food security and social stability.Central Asia is an important cotton and grain producing area in the world. Thedisintegration of the former Soviet Union has broken the original pattern of waterresources distribution. With the rapid growth of population, the contradiction betweensupply and demand of water and land resources has become increasingly prominent inCentral Asia, seriously affecting the sustainable development of regional agriculturalproduction and ecological environment. Studying the matching and zoning of waterand land resources in Central Asian countries under the background of climate changecan provide support for the development of water and land resources and agriculturalproduction in Central Asian countries, and is of great significance to the socialstability of the core region of the Silk Road Economic Belt.Based on the collected meteorological, water resources, land use and remotesensing data, the present situation of water and land resources development andutilization in Central Asia is analyzed in this paper. The hydrothermal product index isintroduced as a hydrothermal factor, the temporal and spatial characeristics of waterand heat resources in Central Asia in recent 15 years are analyzed by linear trendanalysis and partial correlation analysis. The matching characeristics and shortagedegree of agricultural water and land resources were evaluated by generalizedmatching coefficient of agricultural water and land resources and water resourcesequivalent coefficient. According to the DPSIR model and the theory of supply anddemand, we constructed the index structure framework (SDCSL) of the study area,and the principal component analysis and cluster analysis are used to divide theregional of water and land resources utilization. Finally, we discussed the measuresand ways to achieve the effective matching of agricultural water and land resources indifferent regions, so as to provide scientific reference and theoretical basis for theeffective matching and sustainable development of regional agricultural water and land resources. The results show that:(1) The area of easy-to-farm land in Central Asia is about 17219.24 x 104 hm2,which is twice the area of cultivated land. There is great potential for reclaimable landresources, of which Kazakhstan accounts for 87%. Due to the uneven distribution ofwater resources among regions, the lack of water resources allocation capacity willrestrict the development of reserve cultivated land resources in western and southernCentral Asia. From 1995 to 2015, other types of land use mainly shifted to cultivatedland and urban land. From 1995 to 2005, the fluctuation of land use dynamics was thegreatest, with urban land and cultivated land showing significant fluctuation, forestland and wetland showing the smallest fluctuation. indicating that the impact ofhuman activities on land use change was enhanced.(2) Since 2000, the hydrothermal conditions in Central Asia have been improvedon the whole. The area with accumulated annual temperature ≥ 3000℃ has expandednorthward significantly. The area with annual precipitation ≥ 200 mm has expanded tothe southern and western, which will be conducive to the improvement of agriculturalproductivity. Compared with the single climate factor, the hydrothermal index is moreintuitive in characterizing regional hydrothermal conditions.The annual averagehydrothermal product index in Central Asia showed a trend of decreasing first andthen increasing. After 2009, the hydrothermal conditions in Central Asia graduallyimproved. The hydrothermal conditions are generally better in the southern than in thenorthern, the eastern is better than the western, and the hydrothermal conditions areoptimal in the foothill plains and basins in the southeastern Central Asia. In the studyarea, the annual average hydrothermal product index showed an upward trend of45.95%, and the 54.05% area showed a downward trend. Through the correlationanalysis of temperature, precipitation and hydrothermal product index, it is found thatprecipitation is the dominant factor affecting the change of hydrothermal productindex in the study area.(3) The overall matching degree of agricultural water and land resources in thestudy area is better in the south than in the north, and the greater the proportion ofblue water resources, the higher the matching coefficient of agricultural water and land resources. The agricultural land and water matching situation in Kyrgyzstan isbetter than that in Kazakhstan. At the same time, the matching of agricultural land andwater resources in the southern part of the two countries is better than that in thenorthern region. On the whole, south Kazakhstan, Almaty, Jiangbul of Kazakhstan andall states of Kyrgyzstan have the best matching degree of agricultural land and waterresources. The results of the equivalent coefficient of agricultural water and landresources indicate that the agricultural land and water resources in the study area aregenerally in an unbalanced state.(4) The utilization of agricultural land and water resources in the study area canbe roughly divided into four types: rain-fed agricultural areas relying on naturalprecipitation, irrigated agricultural areas in the mountainous plains, mountain irrigatedagricultural areas, and industrial and mining areas with low agricultural proportions.The second type and the first type have higher matching degree of water, land andheat resources and greater potential of agricultural production. For rain-fed agricultureareas and irrigated agricultural areas, the relative balance of agricultural water andland resources can be adjusted by adjusting the proportion of blue-green water inagricultural water structure. At the same time, it is necessary to promote theconstruction of farmland water conservancy projects, strengthen the comprehensivemanagement of water and land resources, improve agricultural productiontechnologies, improve the efficiency of water resources utilization, accelerate the paceof modernization of agricultural production, and enhance the response andadaptability to climate change.Key word: Central Asia, Hydrothermal product index, Generalized agriculturalwater and land resources, Matching characeristics, Principal component clusteringanalysis
Subject Area自然地理学
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15311
Collection中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
研究系统
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
柴晨好. 中亚地区农业水土资源匹配及其利用分区研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2019.
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