基于 WRF 模式的天山地区高分辨率气候模拟及未来气候变化预估
Alternative TitleThe High Resolution Climate Simulation and Future Climate Change Projections in Tianshan Area Using WRF Model
Thesis Advisor张弛
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline理学硕士
KeywordWRF模式 气候模拟 动力降尺度 天山地区 中亚 WRF Climate Simulation Dynamic Downscaling Tianshan Mountains Area Central Asia
Abstract全球气候变暖、极端事件多发背景下,气候变化对丝绸之路核心区中亚的“水塔” — 天山地区的影响情况格外值得关注与探讨。 本研究选用区域气候模式WRF 对天山地区进行高分辨率(8km) 气候模拟, 同时预估未来气候变化。以ERA-Interim 数据驱动 WRF 模式评估其参数化方案敏感性及十年长时间模拟表现,由 CESM1-CCSM4 数据驱动最佳配置的 WRF 模式预估未来气候变化,同时生成天山地区高分辨率历史和未来气候数据集。得到以下主要结论:物理参数化方案敏感性试验中, WRF 模式对气温的模拟效果较好,且对日最高气温(0.8
Other AbstractIn the context of global warming and extreme climate events frequently occur, thestudy regarding climate change on the “water tower” of Central Asia within the SilkRoad is still unclear. Taking the Tianshan mountains area as the study area, the WRFmodel was applied to perform 8 km climate simulation and predict future climatechanges. The ERA-Interim driving WRF model was conducted to evaluate thesensitivity of WRF parameterization scheme and the long-term simulation performance.The CESM1-CCSM4 data was used to drive the optimal WRF model configuration topredict future climate change and also generating high-resolution history and futureclimate dataset for the Tianshan mountains area. The main results are as follow:For the sensitivity evaluation of physical parameterization schemes, the WRFmodel can obtain good simulation temperature results. The simulation of the dailymaximum temperature (0.8 < R < 0.95) is better than the daily minimum temperature(0.62 < R < 0.88), and the daily minimum temperature is sensitive to land surface modelas well as cloud microphysical scheme. The simulation effect of the model onprecipitation (R ≈ 0.6) is general and the performance during different schemes is large.The cloud microphysical scheme WSM 6-class has a small amount of calculation andcan also obtain a good simulation of precipitation. The cumulus convection schemeKain-Fristch can’t accurately handle the strong convection as well as complex terrainin the Tianshan area, and further get large summer simulated minimum dailytemperature deviation and negative value of precipitation. The optimal combination ofphysical parameterization scheme from the sensitivity evaluation is WSM 6 (MIC),BMJ (CS), MYJ/MO (PBL/SLS), NOAH (LSM), and CAM (LSW).For the 10-year long-term scale simulation, the WRF model has excellentsimulation result on temperature. It can greatly correct the driving ERA-Interimunderestimation of the daily maximum and minimum temperature in the Tianshanmountains area. The spatial distribution patterns are close to the high-precision air temperature interpolation product CRU and high-resolution simulation introducesmany small-scale regional climate features. The model’s precipitation simulation showgood results. The annual precipitation and its spatial distribution patterns are similar tothe high-quality observation interpolation products GPCC and APHRODITE, and themodel further removes overestimate introduce by ERA-Interim. Through the realizationof atmospheric physical processes combined with fine land surface information, theWRF model adds regional climatic features and removes errors in large-scale drivingfields. Dynamically downscale driving data thereby obtain this high-precision nearsurface and vertical data that can be applied to related studies.Based on 1996-2005, the main consensus of the climate change over the Tianshanmountains area under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios is warming by the middle ofthe 21st century (2046-2055). Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the annual averagetemperature increase is dominant, and the temperature increase in the desert area is upto 4 °C, while a small part of the western plains presents a temperature drop of 0 –0.5 °C. The whole Tianshan area generally warms up in winter, while there are differentextent of cooling in the western plains at spring, summer, and autumn. The annualprecipitation increases average over the Tianshan mountains at Chinese ranges is 150mm, but the annual precipitation in mountainous ranges out of China and western plainsis reduced by 150 mm. The annual precipitation in the desert increases 0 – 10 mm.Seasonal precipitation changes distribution patterns are similar, while most stronglydecreases appears in winter.Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the annual average temperature increase is obvious.The Tianshan mountains and the northern Pamirs have a temperature increase trend of2.5 °C or 4 °C. The desert generally has a 0 - 3 °C step warming from west to east andthe warming in the western plains is 0 - 0.5 °C. Four seasons are characterized bywarming while the desert warming center are different. The mountainous area iswarming about 2 - 3 °C and the plain area is less warming by 0 - 0.5 °C. The annualprecipitation in the Tianshan mountains ranges of China and Kyrgyzstan increase by 200 mm. The annual precipitation in the western plains reduces to less than 100 mmand this in desert areas increases by 0 – 30 mm. The variation of precipitation in thefour seasons is different, that is, the precipitation in the Tianshan mountains at spring isgenerally increased to 10 – 100 mm, while the rest of the season, precipitation increasesand decreases coexist in the mountainous areas. The seasonal precipitation in thewestern plains reduce by 0 – 30 mm while 0 – 10 mm increased is found in the desert.Taken together, the Tianshan mountains area shows strong warming and humidificationunder the high-emission scenario RCP8.5 compared to the medium-emission scenarioRCP4.5.
Subject Area地图学与地理信息系统
Document Type学位论文
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
陈淑莹. 基于 WRF 模式的天山地区高分辨率气候模拟及未来气候变化预估[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2019.
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