KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 基于 CMIP5 的中国区域人类活动对气温和降水的影响分析 | |
| Alternative Title | Analysis of the Effects of Human Activities on temperature and precipitation in China Based on CMIP5 models |
| 赵洪飞 | |
| Subtype | 硕士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 李龙辉 |
| 2019-06-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学硕士 |
| Keyword | CMIP5 气溶胶 温室气体 土地利用变化 气候变化 CMIP5 Aerosol Greenhouse Gas Land Use Change Climate change |
| Abstract | 工业革命以来， 由气候变化导致的一系列环境问题， 给人类社会造成了严重的不利影响和后果。 全球气候变化是由自然因素和人为因素共同作用形成的， 人为因素主要通过气溶胶、 温室气体排放、 土地利用变化这三种人类活动影响大尺度的气候变化。 本研究基于第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)全球气候模式的单因子历史试验数据， 采用线性趋势分析、 经验正交函数(EOF)方法， 从时间和空间维度上分析了 1860-2000 年间三种主要人类活动（气溶胶 AA、 温室气体GHG、 土地利用变化 LUCC） 影响下的中国区域气温和降水的时空变化特征， 结果表明：（1） 中国区域的气溶胶光学厚度(AOD)整体呈现出显著增加的趋势(0.09504/100a)， AOD 的增加趋势以胡焕庸线为界呈现出“东高西低”的空间分布格局， 并且二十世纪以后 AOD 的增加趋势显著大于二十世纪以前的趋势； 中国区域温室气体整体呈现出显著增加的趋势(49.9 ppm/100a)， 并且二十世纪中叶以后温室气体的增加趋势远远大于二十世纪中叶以前的增加趋势； 中国区域耕地面积比例整体呈现出显著增加的趋势(4.1%/100a)， 增加趋势呈现出“东高西低”的空间分布格局， 二十世纪中叶以前中国的耕地面积呈现出显著增加的趋势， 但是二十世纪中叶以后， 中国的耕地面积呈现出显著减少的趋势。（2） 在气溶胶单因子的驱动下， 中国区域的年均气温呈现出显著降低的趋势(0.763 ℃/100a)， 四川盆地、 内蒙古西部与中国西北地区的气温降低趋势最为明显， 并且平均日最高气温、 平均日最低气温、 暖昼日数、 暖夜日数都呈现出显著降低的趋势， 冷昼日数和冷夜日数呈现出显著上升的趋势； 在温室气体单因子的驱动下， 中国区域的年均气温呈现出显著上升的趋势(1.11 ℃/100a)， 上升趋势呈现出“西高东低”的空间分布格局， 气温上升趋势的高值区为青藏高原、 北大荒与西北地区， 华南地区的上升趋势较低， 并且平均日最高气温、 平均日最低气温、暖昼日数、 暖夜日数都呈现出显著上升的趋势， 冷昼日数和冷夜日数呈现出显著降低的趋势； 在土地利用变化单因子的驱动下， 中国区域的年均气温整体呈现出显著降低的趋势(0.1125 ℃/100a)， 中国大部分区域温度整体呈现出显著降低的趋势， 仅有 0.3%区域的温度呈显著上升的趋势， 并且中国区域的平均日最高气温和暖昼日数整体呈现出显著降低的趋势。（3） 气溶胶排放增多抑制了中国的降水， 在气溶胶单因子的驱动下， 中国区域的年均降水量呈显著减少的趋势(48.13 mm/100a)， 中国大部分区域的降水呈显著减少的趋势， 其中东南部、 四川盆地以及青藏高原东南部是降水减少最明显的区域， 西北地区降水减少趋势较弱， 降水日数、 弱降水日数以及平均日降水强度、弱降水平均日降水强度呈现出显著减少的趋势； 在温室气体单因子的驱动下，中国区域的年均降水量呈现出显著增加的趋势(32.22 mm/100a)， 中国东部与青藏高原地区降水增加趋势较高， 降水日数、 弱降水日数以及平均日降水强度、 弱降水平均日降水强度、 强降水平均日降水强度都呈现出显著上升的趋势； 在土地利用变化单因子的驱动下， 中国区域的年均降水呈现出显著减少的趋势(9.34mm/100a)， 中国大部分区域的降水呈显著减少的趋势， 降水呈降低趋势的区域主要分布在中国南方地区、 内蒙古与东北地区， 降水呈上升趋势的区域主要分布在中原地区、 北大荒地区、 四川盆地、 青藏高原以及山东半岛地区， 在二十世纪中叶以后， 中国区域的降水日数、 弱降水日数以及平均日降水强度、 弱降水平均日降水强度都呈显著减少的趋势。 |
| Other Abstract | Since the industrial revolution, a series of environmental problems brought aboutby climate change have caused serious adverse effects and consequences for humansociety. Global climate change is formed by the combination of natural and humanfactors. Human factors affect large-scale climate change mainly through three humanactivities: aerosol, greenhouse gas emissions and land use change. This study basedon the Multi-mode experimental data provided by Phase five of the Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project(CMIP5) analyzed the Changes of temperature andprecipitation under the influence of three main human activities(aeroso-AA,greenhouse gas-GHG, land use change-LUCC) in China by application of linear trendanalysis and empirical orthogonal function(EOF). The results shows as follows:(1) The trend of (Aerosol optical thickness) AOD’s change in China has been onthe rise from 1860 to 2000, and the rates of increase were 0.09504/100a. Thisincreasing trend of AOD in the east side of the “Hu line” was more conspicuous thanit in the west side. Besides, the increase was stronger after 1950 than that before 1950;The trend of Greenhouse gas changes in China has been on the rise from 1860 to 2000,and the rates of increase were 49.9 ppm/100a. This increasing trend of Greenhousegas was stronger after 1950 than that before 1950; The trend of cultivated land areachanges in China has been on the rise from 1860 to 2000, and the rates of increasewere 4.1%/100a, the increasing trend of cultivated land area in China shows a spatialdistribution of high in the East and low in the west. Before 1950, the area of cultivatedland in China showed a significant increase. However, after 1950, the area ofcultivated land in China showed a significant decrease.(2) In the experiments that only consider the effects of aerosol changes, asaerosol emissions raised, the annual average temperature in China shows a significantdecreasing trend, and the rates of decrease were 0.763 ℃/100a. The temperaturedecrease in Sichuan Basin, western Inner Mongolia and northwest China is the mostsignificant, and the annual mean Maximum temperature, annual mean Minimum temperature, warm days and warm nights all showed a significant decreasing trend,while the number of cold days and cold nights showed a significant upward trend; Inthe experiments that only consider the effects of Greenhouse gas changes, asGreenhouse gas emissions raised, the annual average temperature in China shows asignificant increasing trend, and the rates of increase were 49.9 ppm/100a. Theincreasing trend of temperature shows a spatial distribution of high in the west andlow in the East. The high value areas of temperature rising trend are Qinghai-TibetPlateau, North Wilderness and Northwest China, while the rising trend in South Chinais lower, and the annual mean Maximum temperature, annual mean Minimumtemperature, the number of warm days and warm nights showed a significant upwardtrend, while the number of cold days and cold nights showed a significant downwardtrend. In the experiments that only consider the effects of land use change, the annualaverage temperature in China shows a significant decreasing trend, and the rates ofdecrease were 0.1125 ℃/100a. The remarkable downward trends of temperature werepresented in most area of China ,and the remarkable upward trends of temperaturewere presented in 0.3% area of China. The annual mean Maximum temperature andthe number of warm days in China showed a significant decreasing trend.(3) Increased aerosol emissions inhibit precipitation in China. In the experimentsthat only consider the effects of aerosol changes, as aerosol emissions raised, theannual average precipitation in China shows a significant decreasing trend, and therates of decrease were 48.13 mm/100a. The remarkable downward trends ofprecipitation were presented in most area of China, and the precipitation has beenreduced most predominantly in the southeast of China, Sichuan Basin and southeast ofQinghai-Tibet Plateau, while the trend of precipitation reduction in Northwest Chinawas moderate. The precipitation days, Light precipitation days, Precipitation intensityand Light precipitation intensity in China show a significant decreasing trend; In theexperiments that only consider the effects of Greenhouse gas changes, as Greenhousegas emissions raised, the annual average precipitation in China shows a significantincreasing trend, and the rates of increase were 32.22 mm/100a. The precipitation hasbeen Increased most predominantly in the Eastern China and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The precipitation days, Light precipitation days and Precipitation intensity, Lightprecipitation intensity and Heavy precipitation intensity in China all show asignificant upward trend; In the experiments that only consider the effects of land usechange, the annual average precipitation in China shows a significant decreasing trend,and the rates of decrease were 9.34 mm/100a. The remarkable downward trends ofprecipitation were presented in most area of China, the regions with reducedprecipitation are mainly distributed in southern China, Inner Mongolia and NortheastChina. The regions with increased precipitation are mainly distributed in CentralPlains, North Great Wilderness, Sichuan Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and ShandongPeninsula. After 1950, Precipitation days, Light precipitation days, Precipitationintensity and Light precipitation intensity in China showed a significant decreasingtrend. |
| Subject Area | 地图学与地理信息系统 |
| Language | 中文 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15321 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 赵洪飞. 基于 CMIP5 的中国区域人类活动对气温和降水的影响分析[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2019. |
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