KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 利用 GIS MCDA 进行滑坡敏感性绘图 –以塔吉克斯坦的帕米尔山 脉 Sarez 湖为例 | |
| Alternative Title | Landslide Susceptibility Mapping using GIS MCDA – a case study Sarez lake, Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan |
| SAIDALIEV ISMOIL | |
| Subtype | 硕士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 陈曦 |
| 2019-06-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学硕士 |
| Keyword | 萨雷兹湖 滑坡敏感性 层次分析法 GIS 多标准决策分析 Sarez lake landslide susceptibility analytical hierarchy process GIS Multi-criteria decision analyses |
| Abstract | 萨雷兹湖位于中亚塔吉克斯坦东南部的戈尔诺-巴达赫尚半自治区内。在1911 年一场地震引发了大规模滑坡，堵塞了穆尔加布河谷形成了一座天然大坝。这个叫乌索伊的大坝是以被滑坡掩埋的村庄名字所命名，由它所拦截形成的萨雷兹湖蓄水量大约是日内瓦湖的一半儿。乌索伊大坝位于帕米尔山脉的巴塘河谷，帕米尔山脉被认为是世界上最高和最难到达的山脉之一。天然大坝的稳定性也被视为可能的危险源。发生溃坝形成巨浪的风险可以通过位于湖右岸山坡上大量缓慢移动的斜坡不稳定性来解释。滑坡敏感性是指在具有特定局部地形条件的区域发生滑坡的可能性，即地形形成滑坡的可能性（斜坡运动）。滑坡敏感性图包括过去发生滑坡的区域、如果可能的话还应该包括未来潜在滑坡的区域以及滑坡运行轨迹。本研究采用多标准决策分析（MCDA）来确定研究区域内潜在的滑坡带。采用层次分析法（AHP）、 MCDA 法和加权线性组合法（WLC）绘制了萨雷斯湖滑坡敏感性图。本研究考虑了坡度、坡向、海拔、岩性、土壤质地、与河流的距离、与断层的距离以及地形湿润指数（TWI）等八个影响物质运动的因素，对滑坡活动影响最大的三个因素是斜坡（35.263）、岩性（23.843）和坡向（11.799），影响最小的三个因素是 TWI（4）、距排水距离（2.937）和距断层距离（2.627）。滑坡敏感性指数（LSI）已使用 WLC 技术计算，该技术基于 AHP 方法获得的指定重量和等级。 最终的磁敏度图分类为非常低，低，中，高和非常高的易感区。 获得的敏感性图及其相关数据表明，高敏感区和非常高的敏感区覆盖了总面积的约 59.19％，而约 17.38％被分类为低和极低敏感区。 最终的滑坡敏感性图对于后来的土地利用和开发的滑坡灾害呈现，减缓和适当的安排是有价值的。根据层次分析法（AHP）确定的权重和等级，采用 WLC 技术计算滑坡敏感性指数（LSI）。最后的敏感度图分为极低、低、中、高和极高敏感区。获得的敏感度图及其相关数据表明，高、特高敏感区约占总面积的 59.19%，约17.38%为低、特低敏感区。最终的滑坡敏感性图对滑坡灾害呈现、减缓和后期合理安排土地利用和开发具有一定的参考价值。 |
| Other Abstract | Sarez Lake as a study area, which is located in the semi-autonomous GornoBadakhshan region, in the southeastern part of Tajikistan in Central Asia was createdin 1911 when a massive landslide, triggered by an earthquake, blocked the MurgabRiver valley, creating a natural dam. This dam, which was named Usoy after a villageburied by the landslide, retains Sarez Lake, a water basin roughly one half the volumeof Lake Geneva. The dam is located in the Bartang valley in the Pamir mountainrange, which is counted among the highest and least accessible mountain ranges in theworld. The stability of the natural dam has also been considered as a possible hazardsource. The risk of occurrence of a huge wave can be explained by the availability ofa massive slowly moving slope instability on the mountainside located on the rightbank of the lake.Landslide susceptibility refers to the probability of a landslide occurring in anarea with a specific local terrain condition, it is the likelihood of the terrain to formlandslide (slope movements). Landslide susceptibility map also includes those areaswhere landslides happened in the past, where they could happen in the future and therun-out zones, if possible.In this study, the multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDA) has been employed todetermine potential landslide zones in the study area. Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP), MCDA and Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) methods were used toproduce landslide susceptibility map of the Sarez Lake. Eight Factors that influencemass movements, such as slope, aspect, elevation, lithology, soil texture, distancefrom streams, distance from faults and topographic wetness index (TWI) wereconsidered to carry out this study. Three most influencing factors to landslide activityare slope (35.263), lithology (23.843) and aspect (11.799) and the three leastinfluencing factors are TWI (4), distance from drainage (2.937) and distance fromfaults (2.627).Landslide susceptibility index (LSI) has been calculated using the WLCtechnique based on assigned weight and rating acquired by the AHP method. Thefinal susceptibility map was classified on very low, low, moderate, high and very highsusceptibility zones. The obtained susceptibility map and its relevant data indicate that the high and very high susceptible zones cover about 59.19% of the total area whileabout 17.38% were classified as being the low and very low susceptible zones. Finallandslide susceptibility map is valuable for landslide hazard presentation, mitigationand appropriate making arrangements for land use and development later on. |
| Subject Area | 地图学与地理信息系统 |
| Language | 英语 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15353 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | SAIDALIEV ISMOIL. 利用 GIS MCDA 进行滑坡敏感性绘图 –以塔吉克斯坦的帕米尔山 脉 Sarez 湖为例[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2019. |
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