KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 基于水权交易的塔里木河流域及县域生态补偿研究 | |
| Alternative Title | Research on Ecological Compensation of Tarim River Basin and County Based On Water Right Trade |
| 祝晓瞳 | |
| Subtype | 硕士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 徐海量 |
| 2019-06-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学硕士 |
| Keyword | 塔里木河流域 土地利用/覆被 贝叶斯网络 生态需水 Tarim River Basin Land Use/Cover Bayesian Network Ecological Water Demand |
| Abstract | 近年来， 塔里木河流域大规模的水土资源开发使得流域水资源供需矛盾突出，脆弱的生态系统加之不断扩张的耕地面积使得流域生态及社会安全受到严重威胁，亟需提出科学合理的水资源管理模式来化解这一矛盾。论文在此背景下，通过解译塔里木河干流遥感影像数据， 并利用收集的流域气象、水文等资料， 明确了近 16 年来塔里木河流域土地利用/覆被（LUCC）的变化。 为了保障塔里木河流域的水资源安全，针对流域耕地的面积扩张现状，在县域尺度上，本文将完全成本法与贝叶斯网络模型相结合，通过水价调控的办法促使农户退地节水；在流域尺度上， 本文通过将河水下泄产生的河损量与水经济效益相结合， 制定了枯水年生态调度方案， 在保障下游天然植被生态需水量的同时，使得上游三源流输水产生的社会经济效益最大化。根据本研究，得到以下结论：（1） 2016 年塔里木河流域干流的主要的土地利用类型为未利用地、林地和草地， 湿地面积最小； 2000-2016 年 16 期间，塔里木河流域干流的耕地、水域、林地和草地面积变化最为明显，其中，耕地、水域的面积呈现增加趋势，而林地、草地的面积呈减少趋势；从景观层面上，干流的斑块数量（NP）、斑块密度（PD）、景观形状指数（LSI）呈增加趋势；从各斑块的类型水平上分析，耕地的 NP、 LPI值增加最为明显，林地草地的 NP、 LPI 减少最为明显。（2）塔里木河上中游河段的多年平均河损量、平均河损率最大，分别为 24.76×108 m3 和 52.12%。在枯水年，源流需要向塔里木河干流输水 21.41×108 m3 水量才能满足干流上中游生态需水量和恰拉断面 5.05×108 m3 的下泄水量指标。在枯水年，若由源流向下游进行输水，输水后单方水的经济效益较不输水时的经济效益减少了 71.2%， 但若改由开都河-孔雀河（以下简称开-孔河）向下游进行输水， 不仅能够保障下游天然植被生态需水，而且源流在向开孔河支付生态补偿金额 20.16 亿元后，仍可获利 13.14 亿元。（3） 利用完全成本法计算得到开-孔河流域农业灌溉水价为 0.35 元/m3、 1.4元/m3；结合地下水保护政策以及农业补贴政策，利用阶梯水价政策达到政府退耕目标的概率为 77.7%。 |
| Other Abstract | In recent years, large-scale development of land and water resources in Tarim riverhas led to a conflict between water supply and demand, fragile ecosystems andcontinuous farmland expansion have threatened the ecological and social security ofriver basins. Therefore, it is urgent to propose scientific and reasonable water resourcemanagement models to alleviate this conflict. Based on the research of other scholars,this paper indentifies the changes in land use/cover (LUCC) in the Tarim river byinterpreting the remote sensing image data of the Tarim river, which is accumulated bythe research group all year round, and has collecting meteorological, hydrological, andsocioeconomic data. Aim at the phenomenons and problem of continuous expansion ofcultivated land in Tarim river basin, we uses Baysian network to withdraw land andsave water through water pricing regulation on the county scale, and we haveformulated the ecological water dispaching scheme in dry years, while ensuring theecological water demand of downstream vegetation and maximize the social andeconomic benefits of the ecological water transfer from the source to the stream.According to this study, the following conclusions are drawn:(1) In 2016, the main land use types in the main stream of Tarim River are unusedland, woodland and grassland, while the wetland area is the smallest. During the period2000-2016, the change of cultivated land, water area, wood land and grassland area isthe most obvious among the land use changes in the main stream of Tarim River.Among them, arable land and water area showed an increasing trend, while woodlandand grassland showed a decreasing trend. From the landscape level, the number ofpatches (NP), patch density (PD), and landscape shape index (LSI) in the main streamshowed an increasing trend; from the level of patch types, the increase of NP and LPIin cultivated land was the most obvious, and the decrease of NP and LPI in woodlandgrassland was the most obvious.(2) The ladder water pricing of irrigation area in Kaidu and Kongqi river basin is0.35 rmb/m3 and 1.4 rmb/m3 by full cost method. Under current water price, theprobability of reaching the government's goal of returning farmland is 16.5% and theprobability of reaching the government's goal of returning farmland is 67.7% under theladder water pricing.(3) The average annual river loss in upper and middle reaches of the Tarim Riveris 24.763 billion cubic meters, with a unit River loss rate of 52.12%. In dry years, 2.141 billion cubic meters of water should be transported from the source area to the lowerreaches of the river to ecological base flow in the upper and middle reaches and waterdemand of Chala hydrological section. Under the traditional ecological waterconveyance mode, the profit per cubic meter of water is reduced by 71.2%. If theecological water diversion from Kaikong river and Kongqi river to the downstream isadopted, the headstream should pay 2.016 billion rmb to Kaikong river and Kongqiriver. |
| Subject Area | 生态学 |
| Language | 中文 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15382 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 祝晓瞳. 基于水权交易的塔里木河流域及县域生态补偿研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2019. |
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