KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力分析 | |
| Alternative Title | Analysis of Agricultural Water and Land Resources Carrying Capacity in Kazakhstan |
| 朱薇 | |
| Subtype | 硕士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 周宏飞 |
| 2020-06-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学硕士 |
| Keyword | 哈萨克斯坦 农业水土资源 承载力 模糊综合评价法 生产潜力 Kazakhstan agricultural water and land resources carrying capacity comprehensive evaluation method production potential |
| Abstract | 哈萨克斯坦是中亚各国当中水土资源最丰富、 潜力最大的国家。 但随着中亚地区社会经济的发展和人口数量的增加， 以及国际粮食贸易需求日益增长，对水土资源开发利用强度持续增加，使得水土资源开发与生态环境保护之间的矛盾逐渐凸显。 为了使该区水土资源-社会经济-生态环境的协调可持续稳定发展， 需要开展哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载能力研究，识别障碍因子，挖掘其农业生产潜力。本研究对于促进哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源合理开发利用， 提高粮食生产能力以及保护中亚干旱区生态系统稳定具有重要意义。本文利用统计年鉴数据、 CRU 再分析数据以及收集的资料， 首先对农业水土资源开发利用现状进行了分析， 并结合社会经济发展， 进行农业生产力现状评估； 其次利用“最值法”、“模糊综合评价法” 和“障碍度法” 从微观和宏观两个角度探究了哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力及障碍因素； 最后通过“潜力衰减模型”估算了哈萨克斯坦小麦生长期的光合、光温及气候生产潜力， 并对其时空分布及粮食增产空间进行了分析。 主要研究结果如下：（1） 哈萨克斯坦的水资源比较丰富，但是空间分布不均， 农业灌溉用水供应不足。 不同行业的水资源利用量与 GDP、人口的时间匹配程度存在差异。 水资源利用总量和 GDP 的匹配度年际变化、地区间差异均相对较小。1995年至 2015年， 哈萨克斯坦各行业水资源利用总量与相应 GDP 的匹配程度在整体上呈先增后减的趋势，而与人口的匹配度呈波动增加的趋势。 其中， 克孜勒奥尔达州、 南哈萨克斯坦州和阿拉木图市的匹配水平较差。水资源利用总量与总人口的匹配度空间相关性不显著， 而与总 GDP 的匹配度空间相关性较显著，总体上呈现“西优南劣”， 且逐渐从西向东转移的趋势。 耕地资源在空间分布上差异较大， 部分地区正遭受盐渍化的威胁， 水资源和土地资源在空间上存在明显的错位，农业水土资源对农业发展的束缚程度开始加剧。（2） 2001 年至 2017 年， 哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源综合承载力总体上呈缓慢增加的态势。其中， 经济子系统评价指数的增加趋势大于水土资源子系统， 而社会子系统评价指数的下降趋势大于生态子系统。 哈萨克斯坦的北部、 东部和中部为承载力的高值区， 西部和南部为承载力的低值区，各地州承载力差异明显。北部三州的承载力水平较高且持续递增， 而南哈萨克斯坦州与阿特劳州的承载力水平较低且逐年下降。 2001 年至 2009 年， 农业水土资源承载力主要受垦殖率、农业灌溉率和单位耕地面积农业产值的影响； 2010 年至 2017 年，承载力主要受人口密度、 单位土地污水负荷等因素的影响， 因此生态环境相关因素逐步发展为承载力的主要障碍因素。（3） 哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力水平整体较高。 2017 年实际粮食年产量为 2058.5×104 t， 理论计算可生产的最大粮食产量为 2621.49×104 t，比实际生产的粮食总量多了 27%。 农业水资源年均利用量为 132.22×108 m3， 农业水资源最大可利用量约为 252.79×108 m3， 年农业用水量占到了最大可利用量的 52.3%，可耕地的面积为 24.79×104 km2。哈萨克斯坦 2017 年实际人口数量为 1803.8 万人，而计算所得哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源所能支撑的最大人口数量为 2299.6 万人，实际人口仅占理论最大人口数量的 78%。（4） 小麦生长期光合生产潜力在近 25 年内波动不大，而光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力则呈缓慢波动增加趋势。哈萨克斯坦小麦生长期气候生产潜力的主要分布区，与小麦实际种植地区大致吻合。东部地区的气候生产潜力大于西南部，其中卡拉干达州东北部小麦气候生产潜力的增幅（变化倾向率）是最大的， 而该地区恰好也正是全区人口数量最多的地区。限制气候生产潜力的主要因子是水分。根据理论计算出的气候生产潜力结果是基于农业自然气候条件下进行估算的，远比目前小麦的实际产量高， 整个哈萨克斯坦的小麦生产有较大的增产空间。总之，通过对哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源宏观承载力和微观承载力的研究， 识别了各地州承载力的等级水平与具体数值， 探究了农业生产潜力。 北部三州的承载力水平较高， 生态环境相关因素逐渐成为承载力的障碍因子。 小麦生长期的气候生产潜力较大， 水分是主要的制约因素， 人类活动对于农业的生产有深刻的影响。本研究对进一步了解中亚地区水土资源和农业生产有着重要的意义。 |
| Other Abstract | Kazakhstan is the country with the most abundant water and land resources andthe greatest potential among the countries in Central Asia. However, with thesocio-economic development and population increase in Central Asia, and theincreasing demand for international food trade, the intensity of development and useof water and land resources has continued to increase, making the contradictionbetween the development of water and land resources and ecological protectiongradually highlighted. In order to coordinate the sustainable and stable developmentof the land and water resources-economic-ecological environment in the region, it isnecessary to carry out research on the carrying capacity of agricultural water and landresources in Kazakhstan, identify obstacle factors and tap their agricultural productionpotential. This research is of great significance for promoting the rationaldevelopment and utilization of agricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan,improving food production capacity and protecting the stability of the ecosystem inthe arid region of Central Asia.Based on the collected statistical yearbook data, CRU reanalysis data etc, thispaper analyzed the current status of agricultural water and land resources developmentand utilization, and integrated water and land resources with socio-economics toevaluate the status of agricultural productivity. Then, this paper used the maximumvalue method, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and obstacle degree methodexplored Kazakhstan’s agricultural water and land resources carrying capacity andobstacle factors from both micro and macro perspectives. Finally, the “potentialattenuation model " was used to estimate the photosynthetic, the light-temperature,and the climatic production potential of Kazakhstan’s wheat growing season, and thenthe spatial-temporal distribution and the space for increasing grain production wereanalyzed. The results show that:(1) Kazakhstan is rich in water resources, but its spatial distribution is uneven,and the agricultural irrigation water is insufficient. There were differences in the degree of time matching between water resources utilization and GDP, population indifferent industries. The inter-annual variation and regional differences in thematching degree of total water resources utilization and GDP were relatively small.From 1995 to 2015, in general, the matching degree of the total water resourcesutilization by sub-sector and its GDP showed a trend of first increased and thendropped, while the matching degree with the population showed a trend of increasingfluctuations. Among them, the matching level of total water use and economic andsocial development in Kyzylorda, southern Kazakhstan and Almaty were relativelylow. There were great differences in the spatial distribution of cultivated landresources. Some areas in Kazakhstan are threatened by salinization. Water resourcesand land resources were obviously misplaced in space. The restraint degree of waterand land resources on agricultural development in this area began to intensify.(2) From 2001 to 2017, the overall carrying capacity of agricultural water andland resources in Kazakhstan showed a slowly increasing trend. Among them, theincreasing trend of the evaluation index of the economic subsystem was greater thanthat of the water and land resources subsystem, and the decreasing trend of theevaluation index of the social subsystem was greater than that of the ecologicalsubsystem. The northern, eastern and central parts of Kazakhstan were high-valueareas of carrying capacity, and the western and southern parts were low-value areas ofcarrying capacity. The three northern states were higher levels of carrying capacity,and the southern Kazakhstan and Atyrau states were lower levels of carrying capacitywith decreasing year by year. From 2001 to 2009, the carrying capacity of agriculturalwater and land resources was mainly affected by the reclamation rate, agriculturalirrigation rate, and agricultural output value per unit of cultivated land area. From2010 to 2017, it was mainly affected by the factors such as population density and theunit land sewage load. Therefore, eco-environmental related factors have graduallybecame a barrier to carrying capacity.(3) The overall carrying capacity of agricultural water and land resources inKazakhstan was relatively high. In 2017, the annual grain output was 2058.5×104 t,and the theoretically calculated maximum grain output was 2621.49×104 t, which was 27% more than the actual grain production. The average annual utilization ofagricultural water resources was 132.22×108 m3, the maximum available agriculturalwater resources is about 252.79×108 m3, the annual agricultural water consumptionaccounted for about 52.3% of the maximum available water, and the arable land areawas 24.79×104 km2. The actual population of Kazakhstan in 2017 was 18.038 million,while the calculated maximum population supported by agricultural water and landresources in Kazakhstan was 22.996 million, and the actual population only accountedfor 78% of the theoretical maximum population.(4) The photosynthetic production potential of wheat growth period has notfluctuated greatly in the past 25 years, while the photosynthetic temperatureproduction potential and climatic production potential have showed a slowlyincreasing trend. The main distribution areas of Kazakhstan's climatic productionpotential during the growing season of wheat were generally consistent with the actualwheat growing areas. The climatic production potential of the eastern was greater thanthat of the southwest. Among them, the increase in wheat climatic productionpotential (rate of change tendency) in the northeast of Karaganda was the largest, andthis region happened to be that with the largest population. The main factor limitedthe potential for climatic production was water. The theoretically calculated climaticproduction potential results were estimated based on the agricultural natural climaticconditions, which was much higher than the current actual wheat yield, and there ismuch room for increased wheat production in Kazakhstan.In short, through the research on the macro-capacity and micro-capacity ofagricultural water and land resources in Kazakhstan, the levels and specific values ofthe capacity of various states were identified, and the agricultural production potentialwas explored. The carrying capacity of the three northern states were relatively high,and factors related to the ecological environment have gradually become obstacles tocarrying capacity. Wheat has great climatic production potential during the growingseason, and water was the main constraint. Human activities have a profound impacton agricultural production. This study is of great significance for furtherunderstanding of water and land resources and agricultural production in Central Asia. |
| Subject Area | 自然地理学 |
| Language | 中文 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15383 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 朱薇. 哈萨克斯坦农业水土资源承载力分析[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020. |
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