KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 1992-2017 年吉尔吉斯斯坦城市扩张及其驱动力研究 | |
| Alternative Title | STUDY URBAN EXPANSION AND ITS DRIVING FORCES IN KYRGYZSTAN FROM 1992-2017 |
| Gulkaiyr Omurakunova | |
| Subtype | 博士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 包安明 |
| 2020-05-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学博士 |
| Keyword | 城区 DMSP-OLS 卫星数据 不透水面 遥感 监督分类 人口 城市 Urban Areas DMSP-OLS satellite data Impervious surface remote sensing supervised classification population |
| Abstract | 快速城市化进程遍及世界。目前， 世界上近一半的人口都居住在城市和城镇， 预计至2050年城镇人口将增长到约 66％。城市化是全球变化的主要组成部分，对环境、 经济和社会状况产生了深远影响， 影响着各国水、 生物多样性、 气候以及人口统计过程和公共卫生。 城镇人口在人口构成中的主要地位使得城市化带来的影响具有全球性。对中亚地区而言，城市化也正带来严峻的挑战，如吉尔吉斯斯坦正经历着经济和人口的不断增长。 1991年苏联解体后，中亚各共和国根据人口状况、 定居模式、 气候和社会经济条件，选择了不同的经济、地域和城市发展模式。 而这些因素确定了区域城市化进程的规模和性质。 在吉尔吉斯斯坦，城镇人口占34%、农村人口占66％， 人口密度为32人/km2。尽管吉尔吉斯斯坦城市化程度较差，但由于人们对更好的生活方式和生活必需品的需求（如教育，医疗保健和就业），其正经历着本土移民压力下的城市化。 因此，迫切需要对我国大城市的动态变化展开研究，如比什凯克，奥什和贾拉勒阿巴德等的城市扩张和地表分析。本文旨在研究吉尔吉斯斯坦的城市动态变化及其驱动力， 开展（1） 基于DMSP-OLS夜间灯光数据分析吉尔吉斯斯坦城市空间动态扩张（1992-2013年）； （2） 基于不透水面的吉尔吉斯斯坦高度城市化的城市动态变化分析；（3）地域城市发展因素研究。城市化对推动国家经济发展产生深远影响的同时也对环境带来了负面影响，因此研究吉尔吉斯斯坦城市动态变化并识别其人口过剩的原因至关重要。 我国交通运输系统和通讯业较高水平的发展，驱使城市化发展产生积极影响， 为人们提供了最大限度的服务和就业机会。 如比什凯克市，城市越大就越有助于实现集中生产对国家的影响， 通过刺激经济发展自动一体化地发展国内城市和全国整体经济。 然而，资源约束却局限了城市化进程。 经济的不断发展使得生产要素、土地要素和水要素的需求不断增加，形成赤字。 这使得吉尔吉斯斯坦的城市，尤其是大城市遭受环境破坏和空气污染。我们尝试了多种方法进行研究，但基于低分辨率卫星数据绘制全球和区域尺度的城市区域地图难以识别人类活动和城市增长。加之，解析城市扩张对土地覆盖及其环境的影响非常重要且有价值。 近几十年来，遥感数据已被广泛应用于提供遥感数据已被广泛用于提供土地使用/覆盖信息，例如湿地和森林的减少，城市化速度和其他人为变化。 基于地理信息系统（GIS） 和遥感数据的城市动力学模型被证明可用于识别城市发展和土地利用/覆盖变化趋势，可为地方规划部门根据环境承载力、基础设施现有和预期可用性及社会经济来理解和管理城市增长提供支撑。全球化的快速城市扩张带来了诸多问题， 然而多数研究主要集中于单一城市视角。 对此，有必要利用时间序列分析法， 测度区域尺度上快速增加的不透水面面积并解析其原因。(1) 来自于美国国防气象卫星计划的线性扫描业务系统 (DMSP-OLS) 夜间灯光时间序列数据集的1公里分辨率的DMSP-OLS 夜间灯光数据（version 4），为全球尺度人类活动监测提供了一种新的信息获取途径。但DMSP-OLS传感器数据由于缺少星上校准机制，不能直接用于与其他卫星活动数据集进行比较。 对此，本研究开发了一种新的系统校正方法，即使用不同类型的数据源 (Landsat、全球人类住区和人口数据集) 对吉尔吉斯斯坦1992年至2013年间的卫星夜间灯光数据进行了验证。结果显示了所提出的用于城市增长的数据验证和校正方法的有效性， 能减少夜间灯光数据集的误差、信号失真和差异，提高数据质量和与其他数据集的可比性。对吉尔吉斯斯坦1992-2013年城市扩张动态进行检验，其平均精度和kappa统计值分别为0.80%和 0.61%。 这进一步表明，夜间灯光数据集为监测城市扩展及其对土地覆盖动态的影响提供了有用的信息。该研究可为城市规划者、政策制定者和决策者提供支撑，以便在人口日益增长的趋势下更好地规划和管理吉尔吉斯斯坦主要城市。(2) 本研究的重点是通过采用监督分类最大相似度技术和量化不透水面，并基于土地覆盖数据集描述确定城市1993-2017年间的不透水面(城区)增长特征。人口和经济的增长使得城市面积的扩大对自然资源的需求增强并最终耗尽，从而导致主要城市的土地利用变化。 结果显示， 比什凯克、 奥什和贾拉勒阿巴德的不透水面分别为35%、 75%和15%。三个城市两个不同数据集图像分类的总体精度(OA)在82% ~ 93%之间， kappa系数(KCs)在77% ~ 91%之间。 陆地卫星图像和其他数据均显示所有城市扩张呈正增长。 1993至2017年间，比什凯克市的不透水面面积增加了6255.54公顷从9.10%增长至35.20%，奥什市的不透水面面积增加了3452.67公顷从29%增长为75%， 贾拉勒阿巴德市的增加了502.2公顷（从3%增加至15%）；而三个市的非不透水面面积则分别为比什凯克市从3%增加至12.49%， 奥什市从8%增加至23%， 贾拉勒阿巴德市从1%增加至6%。 GDP、工业和人口的增长是驱动1993至2017年间这些城市不透水面扩张的因素。 景观扩张指数(LEI)分析结果也很好地证实了研究期间不透水面的变化特征。研究结果将有力支撑城市规划和可持续发展过程，实现自然资源的可持续利用和管理，从而提高城市的生活质量、改善环境状况。(3) 在本研究中关于地域城市发展因素，我们尝试利用统计数据， 从人口因素和城市属地发展两个方面来研究吉尔吉斯斯坦的内部迁移。城市的动态变化及其驱动力研究将有助于国家城市化政策制定，以应对中长期即将大量涌入城市的农村居民， 提供全面的城市规划、 促进区域和地区的经济和社会发展策略，建立统一的人口安置体系。 本文最后提出了本国可持续发展的区域规划政策建议。 |
| Other Abstract | Around the world, there is now a rapid urbanization process. More almost half ofthe world’s population now survives in cities, and towns 2050 this number will begrown to about 66%. Urbanization is the main component of global change, has aprofound impact on the environment, on the economic and social situation, it alsoaffects not only water, biodiversity and climate, the demographic process, and thepublic health of the Country. Now it has become a global phenomenon because asignificant part of the population now lives in cities. Urbanization is also becoming aserious challenge for Central Asia, including Kyrgyzstan, which is a dynamicallygrowing region in economic and demographic terms. After the collapse of the USSRin 1991, the Central Asian republics chose different models of economic, territorialand urban development, depending on the demographic situation, settlement patterns,climatic and socio-economic conditions. This, in turn, influenced the scale and natureof urbanization processes in the region. In Kyrgyzstan, 34% of the total populationlives in urban areas and 66 % live in rural areas. The population density averages 32people per square kilometer. Kyrgyzstan is a poorly urbanized country, but despitethis, the Cities of Kyrgyzstan are experiencing urbanization along with the pressure oflocal migration, as people seek a better lifestyle and necessities of life, such aseducation, healthcare, and employment. This was the main reason to study dynamicurban change as an example, large cities like Bishkek, Osh, and Jalal-Abad for cityexpansion and surface analysis.The objective of this Ph.D. Study Urban Expansion and its Driving Forces inKyrgyzstan, Spatial Analysis of Urban Expansion Dynamics in Kyrgyzstan Based onDMSP-OLS Night Lights (1992-2013) (1); Analysis of urban change dynamics inhighly urbanized cities in Kyrgyzstan from 1993-2017 based on the impervious layer(2); Factors territorial urban development (3).The importance of the study the urban change dynamics of Kyrgyzstan andidentify the reasons for overpopulation, because urbanization plays a deep influenceon the development of the country's economy, but the same moment negatively affectsthe environment. The positive aspects of the dynamics of urban changes for thedevelopment of our country are affected by a higher level of development of transportsystems, communications, provides the population with maximum services and opportunities for employment and the application of their abilities. The larger the city,for example, the city of Bishkek, the more it contributes to the realization of theeffects of concentration of production on its territory, stimulating the development ofits economy, and then automatically developing the economy of the city of its territoryand the economy of the entire territory that it unites. The negative aspects of thedynamics of urban change, the limits of urbanization are dictated by resourceconstraints. With extensive development, there is a growing demand for fundamentalfactors of production, land, and water, forming their deficit. The cities of Kyrgyzstan,especially large cities, suffer from environmental damage and air pollution. We triedto use different methods for this. Mapping urban areas at global and regional scales isa difficult and challenging task to identify human activities and urban growth withspatial low-resolution satellite data. On the other way, it is very important andvaluable to differentiate the impact of urban expansion on land cover and itsenvironment. In recent decades, remotely sensed data have been widely used toprovide the land use/cover information such as decreased level of wetlands andforests, speed of urbanization and other human-induced changes. The urban dynamicsmodel driven by Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as well as remote sensingdata proved to be useful for identifying urban growth and land use/cover tendenciesthat enable local planning authorities to recognize and manage city growth accordingto the environmental carrying capacity, present and envisaged infrastructureavailability as well as socio-economic considerations.Rapidly expansion of urbanization around the globe has to create severalproblems, and many studies were mainly focused on single cities. It is essential andneeds time to measuring the speedily increased area of impervious surface and theirreasons on the regional scale with temporal analysis.(1) DMSP-OLS stаble nighttime lights dаta version 4 (1km resolution) from theDefense Meteorological Sаtellite Progrаm’s Operational Line-scаn System (DMSPOLS) temporal Nighttime Lights dataset provide a new way of information to monitorhuman activities on a global scale. However, the DMSP-OLS sensor data cannot beused directly to compare with other satellite datasets for human activities due to it hasno on-board calibration mechanism. In this study used a newly developedsystematically correcting temporal multi-satellite night lights data for the period of1992 to 2013 for Kyrgyzstan, validation with a different type of data sources(Landsat, Global Human settlements and population datasets). The results revealed that the effectiveness of the proposed validation and data correction method for urbangrowth dynamics with reducing errors, signal distortion and discrepancies from thenight lights dataset and improve the quality and comparability of data with otherdatasets. Urban expansion dynamics for Kyrgyzstan from 1992-2013 were examinedwith average accuracy and kappa statistics of about 0.80 % and 0.61 % respectively.Furthermore, the results showed that the stable night lights dataset provide usefulinformation for monitoring of urban expansion and their impacts on land coverdynamics. The study provides a useful primary information tool for urban planners,policy and decision-makers for the better management of urban planning in the maincities of Kyrgyzstan in the context of day by day increasing population trend.(2) This study focuses on land cover datasets to characterize impervious surface(urban area) growth in determining cities from 1993 to 2017, using supervisedclаssification mаximum likelihood techniques and by quantifying impervioussurfaces. The expansion of urbаn areas due to populatiоn growth and economic risecreates demand and depletes natural resоurces, thereby causing land-use changes inthe main cities. The results show an increasing trend in the impervious surface area by35% in Bishkеk, 75% in Osh, аnd 15% in Jalаl-Abad. The overall accuracy (OA) forthe image classification of two different datasets for the three cities was between 82%and 93%, and the kappa coefficients (KCs) were about 77% and 91%. The Landsatimages with other additional data shоwed positive urban increase in all of the cities.From 1993-2017 impervious surfaces increased by 6255.54 ha 9.10%–35.20% inBishkek, 3452.67 ha 29%–75 in Osh and 502.2 ha 3%–15% for Jalal-Abad city andduring non-impervious surfaces area is decreased 3%–12.49% for Bishkek, 8%–23%and 1%–6% for Osh and Jalal-Abad respectively. The GDP, industrial grоwth, andurban population growth were driving factors of impervious surfаce sprawl in thesecities from 1993 to 2017. Landscape Expansion Index (LEI) results also providedgood evidence for the change of impervious surfаces during the study periоd. Theresults accent the idea of applying future planning and sustainable urban developmentprocess for sustainable use of natural resources and their cоntrol, which will increaselife quality in urban areas and envirоnments.3) In this work, among the factor’s territorial urban development, we tried to studyinternal migration from the demographic factors, as well as the territorial developmentof the cities of Kyrgyzstan. for analyzing we internal migration mainly used statisticaldata. The city develops due to the village and the largest city due to the rest of the settlement system.Studying the dynamics of urban changes and their driving forces will help stateurbanization policies to ensure the readiness of cities for the influx of rural residentsin the medium and long term, provide comprehensive urban planning and stimulatethe economic and social development of regions and districts, and create a unifiedpopulation settlement system. The paper concludes by proposing some regionalplanning policies for sustainable development of the country. |
| Subject Area | 地图学与地理信息系统 |
| Language | 英语 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15385 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Gulkaiyr Omurakunova. 1992-2017 年吉尔吉斯斯坦城市扩张及其驱动力研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020. |
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