KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 旅游业对吉尔吉斯斯坦伊塞克湖区域发展的影响 | |
| Alternative Title | The impact of tourism on the regional development on the Issyk-Kul lake, Kyrgyzstan |
| KOZHOKULOV SADYRBEK | |
| Subtype | 博士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 杨德刚 |
| 2020-05-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学博士 |
| Keyword | 旅游 经济和社会影响 吉尔吉斯坦 伊塞克湖地区 模型 地理分区 Tourism Economic and Social impacts Kyrgyzstan Issyk-Kul region Modeling Zoning |
| Abstract | 目前，旅游业是世界经济中发展最活跃的产业之一，也是推动区域经济社会全面发展的重要动力。旅游业不仅是发展中国家推动经济可持续发展的必然选择，同时也是发达国家重要的收入来源和广阔的就业市场。在吉尔吉斯斯坦， 1991 年以前，旅游业一直由工会管理，工会主要发展国内旅游业，如为工人提供低廉的休闲娱乐，没有融入全球旅游体系。所以尽管该国拥有独特的旅游资源，但一直以来未得到充分利用。 1991 年，苏联解体，吉尔吉斯共和国独立后， 旅游业在吉国发展的必要因素：第一，在苏联时代，工厂和企业建在吉尔吉斯斯坦，但在解体前各个国家建造的工厂只能够生产某种商品的单一零件或原材料，所以苏联解体后这些工厂处于行业崩溃状态，导致企业被迫关闭。第二，在获得独立后，吉尔吉斯斯坦继续把重点放在农业上，作为国家发展的一个战略。然而，该国的山区景观和气候不允许吉尔吉斯斯坦农业的积极发展，因为吉尔吉斯斯坦基本都是山谷，能够进行农业种植的领土只占总领土的 7％。农业是一个国家想要发展的必要产业，但目前该国在针对自己国家农业方面还是供不应求。该国也有丰富的不可再生能源。向俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦出口能源资源，从而增加其国内生产总值，如矿、原材料，包括石油和天然气等。然而不可再生资源的开发和出口并不能长期持续吉国的经济发展。第三，吉尔吉斯斯坦正在努力发展其能源部门，并计划建设强大的水力发电站。然而，在人类今天正在迅速取得科学技术突破的背景下，只在建设巨型水力发电厂和向该地区邻国出口电力的项目是站不住脚的。在太阳能和风能等替代能源的发展时代，大型水力发电站和昂贵的电力线路使得发展能源部门也并不能够为吉国发展贡献力量。由于吉国缺乏可再生资源，所以经济模式可以转化为再出口国， 之后又成为劳动力迁移的国家。加入关税联盟后消除了再出口的想法，劳动力移民收入已成为吉国的主要收入来源之一。然而，劳动力移民这种做法对吉国的社会效应并不好，也不能够对吉国经济发展起到实质性的帮助。上述所有行业都是 20 世纪经济模式的关键。在 21 世纪，他们只能发挥次要作用。在 21 世纪，吉尔吉斯斯坦经济发展最有希望的方向是旅游业进军。在吉尔吉斯斯坦获得独立后，该国政府已经制定了许多促进旅游发展的规划和战略，如改变土地资源管理方式等，但到目前为止，这些政策并没有对旅游业的发展产生积极影响，原因在于政策的不连续性。伊塞克湖旅游业是吉尔吉斯斯坦旅游业的重要组成部分，也是促进该地区和吉尔吉斯斯坦经济，社会和文化发展的一个重要因素。然而目前，伊塞克湖地区旅游业对经济和社会发展的影响尚不清楚。因此，对吉尔吉斯斯坦旅游业的分析和旅游业对伊塞克湖的社会经济影响的研究具有重要意义。本研究的重点研究区域是伊塞克库尔地区，因为这是吉尔吉斯斯坦游客量最大的地区。研究目的是预测旅游业发展，找出旅游业发展的限制因素，提出改进方法，增强旅游业对本国经济和社会发展的贡献力。研究方法和研究手段包括（1） 模型确定旅游业的社会和经济影响，并预测旅游业的发展潜力；（2）问卷调查游客的旅游意愿； (3）统计分析显示旅游业对国家发展的贡献；（4）利用地理信息系统技术进行旅游资源分类。最终得出如下研究结果：1． 模型研究表明，伊塞克湖地区旅游业今后发展的趋势依然是不断上升的，并带动经济与社会发展，同时不可避免的受到国际国内政治环境的影响。如旅游服务出口在 1998 年、 1999 年、 2005 年和 2010 年有所下降。原因是俄罗斯的经济危机，吉尔吉斯斯坦面临的生态灾难和政治动荡。与此同时，该地区经济社会发展的各项指标也呈现下降趋势。2． 问卷调查结果显示今后为发展旅游业需要做好以下几个方面 1. 需要促进旅游业在国内互联网和社交网络上的宣传； 2. 注重吉尔吉斯斯坦文化活动的相关性，如游牧民族国际运动会等； 3. 打开国家的国际旅游市场； 4. 促进旅游业在各个地区的均衡发展，避免集中的客流给生态环境造成的压力； 5. 需要发展基础设施（酒店，咖啡馆，优质道路等）和提升服务水平。3． 利用基于对吉尔吉斯斯坦山区旅游业类别和类型的分析的定量评估，确定了该国每个区域旅游业的发展潜力。定量评估是基于创建的地图。在分析旅游业发展水平后，这些地区分为三类：不发达-奥什，巴特肯;发展中-纳伦，塔拉斯，贾拉勒-阿巴德; 发达-丘伊，伊塞克湖。 为了实现可持续和无害环境的发展，旅游业的类别和种类必须在共和国所有地区平等地发展。旅游业在某些地区的集中造成了环境和社会压力。将某些类别和类别的旅游业转移到较不发达区域，将有助于减轻环境压力，并加强社会经济状况。国家政策在发展共和国和各地区旅游业的类别和类型方面应具有明确而积极的立场。由于我国旅游业的优势是生态旅游，所以最后给出该地区出旅游业发展的建议是大力建设国家公园和自然保护区，此举措不仅能够促进旅游区的自然景观和生物多样性保护，也能够带动就业，改善当地居民的生活水平。与以前的研究不同，这项研究有助于对该地区旅游业的社会经济后果有新的认识。 创新研究成果： 1. 根据模型评估旅游业对伊塞克湖地区社会经济状况的影响同时预测旅游旅游业对伊塞克湖地区社会经济发展； 2. 对吉国地区，特别是伊塞克湖地区的旅游业通过类别和类型进行比较和分析，并根据旅游发展水平将这些按类别进行区分; 3. 旅游业对吉尔吉斯斯坦经济发展的影响，通过多方面分析吉尔吉斯斯坦旅游业受到影响的因素； 4. 已经确定了吉国和伊塞克湖地区在旅游领域的发展缺点和前景。这项研究在对旅游业作为促进社会和经济增长的重要激励的系统和全面研究中是有道理的。这项研究可能为今后的研究分析与社会经济领域旅游相关的问题铺平道路。 |
| Other Abstract | At the present time, the tourism industry functions as one of the most dynamicallydeveloping sectors of the world economy and is also an important factor in thesocio-economic development of countries and regions. Tourism is considered as oneof the options for economic growth in many developing countries and has become animportant source of income as well as a source of employment not only fordeveloping, but also for developed countries.In Kyrgyzstan, before 1991, the tourism industry was managed by unions. Themain policy of the state was aimed at the development of domestic tourism andmainly developed in a direction aimed at providing cheap recreation for workers.Consequently, the tourism industry was not integrated into the global tourism system,and many differing problems arose following the collapse of the USSR.In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and the Kyrgyz Republic emerged as anindependent state. The following factors served as a necessity for the development oftourism in the republic: Firstly, during the Soviet era, factories and enterprises werebuilt in Kyrgyzstan, which employed thousands of people, but many of them werecreated as a separate link in the industry, spread across the vast USSR. With thecollapse of the USSR, the whole industry collapsed, which led to the closure ofenterprises.Secondly, after gaining independence, Kyrgyzstan continued to focus onagriculture as a strategic sector of the country. However, the mountainous landscapeand climate of the country do not allow the development of extensive agriculture inKyrgyzstan, practically limiting it to valleys, which makes up only 7% of the totalterritory. Agriculture, an important industry that must be developed, but at the momentthe country cannot even provide its domestic market.There are also rich mineral deposits in the country. Russia and Kazakhstan areexporting energy and thereby increasing their GDP. However, mining, like any raw material economy, including the oil and gas industry, is not a renewable resource. Thedevelopment and sale of deposits do not lead to the creation of a sustainable economicsystem.Thirdly, Kyrgyzstan is trying to develop its energy sector and plans to buildpowerful hydropower plants. However, projects aimed at building giant hydropowerplants and exporting electricity to neighbors in the region are untenable in the contextof the rapid scientific and technological breakthrough that mankind is making today.Large hydroelectric power stations and long, expensive power lines will becomeirrelevant in the age of development of alternative sources, such as solar, wind energy.Thus, due to the lack of renewable resources around which the economic modelof the republic could be built, Kyrgyzstan became a country of re-export, and laterlabor migration. Joining the Customs Union (CU) has eradicated the practice ofre-export, but income from labor migration has become one of the country's mainsources of income. However, this practice has negative social consequences.All of the above industries were key in the economic models of the 20th century.In the 21st century, they can only play a secondary role. In the 21st century, the mostpromising direction of economic development of Kyrgyzstan will be and today istourism.After Kyrgyzstan's independence, the government developed many tourismdevelopment concepts and strategies. But so far, these measures have not had apositive impact on the development of tourism. The reason being the lack ofcontinuity of power in the tourism industry of the republic.Tourism on Issyk-Kul Lake is an important part of the tourism industry ofKyrgyzstan and an important factor in promoting the economic, social and culturaldevelopment of the region and of Kyrgyzstan. However, at present time the impact oftourism on the socio-economic development of the Issyk-Kul region is unclear.Therefore, the analysis of tourism in Kyrgyzstan and the study of the socio-economicconsequences of tourism on Issyk-Kul Lake is of great importance.The chief focus of this study is the Issyk-Kul region, as it is the region thatreceives the largest numbers of tourists in Kyrgyzstan. The aim of the study is topredict the development of the tourism industry and to identify any limiting factors forthe development of the tourism industry. Also to explore any proposal of improvedmethods for identifying and increasing the contribution of the tourism industry to theeconomic and social development of the region.Research methods include: 1) The model determines the social and economicimpact of tourism and predicts the potential for tourism development. 2)Questionnaires on the study of the willingness of potential tourists to considertraveling to Kyrgyzstan. 3) Statistical analysis to reveal the contributions made bytourism to the development of the country. 4) A classification of tourism resourcesusing GIS technology.The following conclusions emerged:1. Modeling has shown that the growth of the economic and social consequencesof tourism in the Issyk-Kul region has increased significantly every year. The forecastrevealed that in the future the trend of tourism development in the region willcontinue to grow and continue to stimulate economic and social development. Thestate of tourism in the country is strongly influenced by domestic and internationalpolitical factors. For example, the export of tourism services declined markedly in1998, 1999, 2005 and 2010. The reason being the economic crisis in Russia, theenvironmental catastrophe and political instability in Kyrgyzstan. This caused thedownward trend in various indicators of economic and social development in theregion.2. The results of a questionnaire survey illustrated that in order to develop tourismin the future, the following aspects should be done: 1. The need to promote tourism inthe country on the Internet and social networks. 2. The relevance of cultural events inKyrgyzstan, such as international Nomad Games, etc. 3. Promote the country'sadvertising in the international tourism market. 4. Develop a strategy for the evendistribution of tourist flows throughout the country in order to prevent an environmental burden on a particular region. 5. The need to develop infrastructure(hotels, cafes, quality roads, etc.) and to modernize the level of service.3. The potential for tourism development in each region of the country wasidentified using a quantitative assessment, which is based on an analysis of thecategories and types of mountain tourism in Kyrgyzstan. Quantitative assessment wascarried out on the basis of the created map. After analyzing the level of tourismdevelopment, the regions were divided into three classes: underdeveloped - Osh,Batken; developing - Naryn, Talas, Jalal-Abad; and developed - Chuy, Issyk-Kul. Forsustainable and environmentally safe development, categories and types of tourismshould be developed evenly in all regions of the Republic. The concentration oftourism in certain regions leads to environmental and social stress. Redirecting certaincategories and types of tourism to less developed regions will reduce the burden onthe environment and strengthen the socio-economic situation. State policies shouldhave a clear and active position in the development of categories and types of tourismin the republic as a whole and in the regions.Since the advantage of tourism in the country lies in ecotourism, the latestproposal for the development of tourism in the region is to actively create nationalparks and reserves that not only contribute to the conservation of the natural landscapeand biodiversity in the tourist area, but also stimulate employment and improve theliving standards of the local population.Unlike previous studies, this study contributes to a new understanding of thesocio-economic impact of tourism in the region. Innovative achievements in the work:1. The impact of tourism on the socio-economic situation in the Issyk-Kul region isassessed on the basis of modelling, as well as forecasting the development of tourism;2. Comparative analysis was made of categories and types of tourism in the regions ofthe Republic, in particular in the Issyk-Kul region, and the regions were divided intoclasses according to the level of tourism development; 3. The contribution of tourismto the development of Kyrgyzstan was identified and factors that had a negativeimpact on the country’s tourist attractiveness were identified; 4. Shortcomings and prospects for the development of the republic and the Issyk-Kul region in the field oftourism have been identified.The study makes sense in a systematic and comprehensive study of tourism as animportant incentive in promoting social and economic growth. Thus this study willhelp to pave the way for future research and analysis of problems related to tourism inthe socio- economic sphere. |
| Subject Area | 人文地理 |
| Language | 英语 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15387 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | KOZHOKULOV SADYRBEK. 旅游业对吉尔吉斯斯坦伊塞克湖区域发展的影响[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020. |
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