KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 气候变化和人类活动对布克特玛河流域水资源的影响 | |
| Alternative Title | The impact of climate change and human activities on the water resources of Buqtyrma River Basin |
| Moldir Rakhimova | |
| Subtype | 博士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 刘铁 |
| 2020-05-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学博士 |
| Keyword | 气候变化 人类活动 径流 GCM SWAT 布克特尔玛河流域 MME Climate change Human activity Runoff Buqtyrma River Basin General Circulation Model (GCM) MME SWAT |
| Abstract | 水的地球表面时空分布十分不均匀，其空间性和时效性影响了水资源利用效率。例如洪水的资源化一直是水资源利用的难题之一。气候变化背景下洪水和干旱等极端气候事件频发，以及当地农业、生态和城市化对水资源的高要求，水资源的这种高时空变化性使得水资源管理非常困难。过去一个世纪的气候变化趋势和未来全球气候变化预测已经显示出来降水格局的变化、温度上升以及冰川和积雪面积的减少，气候变化将加剧水循环的变异，从而对全球和区域水资源产生严重影响。在过去的几十年中，人类活动加剧了农业、城市和工业等用水单元之间对有限淡水资源的竞争，因此分析气候变化趋势、量化气候变化影响，是进行科学管理和规划的前提。布克特尔玛河流域（Buqtyrma River Basin）位于阿尔泰山脉，欧亚草原和天山山脉结交出，其气候和水资源变化对农业和生态系统具有重要意义。未来气候变化将改变整个流域的水文循环。因此，在气候变化和社会经济快速发展的条件下，评估气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响是水安全的关键。水文模拟是流域水资源规划、过程和管理的重要工具。对于欠勘探或开发的流域使用此类模型非常重要。这项研究的主要目的是评估气候变化和人类活动对水资源的影响以及预测未来气候变化对温度和降水等气候变量的影响。同时，使用 SWAT 对布克特尔玛河流域（BRB）进行的水文模拟。为了实现此目标，设置了以下任务： (1)评估河流流量的长期变化并确定年径流量的转移点；量化气候变化和人为活动对径流量的影响，并评估布克特尔玛河流域（BRB）上、中和下部地区的影响程度。 (2) 在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 排放的气候情景中，使用普通循环模型（GCM）对温度和降水的六种未来气候预测，评估气候变化对水文过程的影响。 (3) 利用SWAT 模型模拟布克特尔玛河流域（BRB）对未来气候变化的响应及其时空特征和流域水系统的贡献。研究结果表明：（1）研究区域的温度，降水和 PET 序列存在显著的时空差异性差异。本研究应用 MK 检验来分析各种水文气候变量的长期趋势，使用 Pettitt 检验和DCC（双累积曲线）确定转移点，计算了过去 65 年中三个不同海拔高度带的径流，检测了变化趋势和突变点，明晰了气候因素对布克特尔玛河流域径流的影响。在布克特玛河河流域的上部，在 1950–2015 年期间，年平均径流范围为329.6 至 1014.3 mm，年均观测值为 599. 4 mm。中部的年平均径流范围为259.3 至 769.0 mm，年平均为 481.0 mm；下部的年平均径流范围为 345.4 至1195.7 mm，下部的年平均径流值为 633.0 mm。在流域的上游、中部和下游，基于 MK 检验的 Z 统计值分别为 2.58、 0.87 和 1.82，这表明年在过去的 65 年中，径流量在整个研究区域呈增长趋势，增长速度在上、中和下游分别为 2.82 mm/年、 0.56 mm/年和 2.30 mm/年。结果表明，第一个明显的变化发生在 1982 年，因而截止 1982 年的时段可以被视为没有人为干扰的“自然基准年”，而 1983–2015 年可以被看做是“人类活动影响阶段”。因此，径流参考期可以分为变化期（1983–2015）和基准期（1950–1982）。为了明确起见，我们进一步将人为活动阶段分为 1983–1995 年， 1996–2005 年和 2006–2015 年三个阶段。在这些时期中， 1996 年至 2005 年期间，气候变化对径流变化的贡献程度在上游和中游地区最大，而在下游地区最小。检查气候因素和人类活动作为影响因素，量化影响因素的贡献百分比。受气候变化影响最大的是流域的中部和上部地区（在1983-2015 年期间分别增至 60.61％–78.07％和 49.79％–62.94%）。在下游， 人类活动的影响更为明显（1983-2015 年期间为 65.19％–89.54％），而气候变化的影响仅占 10.46％，这表明人为活动的影响最为重要。（2）研究区域内未来温度将高速率持续升温并有更多的降雨量。本研究通过空间相关性（R）、克林-古普塔效率（KGE）、纳什-苏克利夫效率 (NSE) 和均方根误差（RMSE） 4 种空间性能指标评估了 GCM 模式，发现了 MME 模式在研究区域内有较好的模拟效果。对于未来的降水和温度的预测中，使用了 2036 年至 2100 年的 GCM 数据。未来的时间段分为两个时间间隔，每个时间间隔为 30年： 2030s（2036 –2065）和 2070s（2071–2100）。使用 Delta 方法，在 RCP4.5和 8. 5 情景下估算了未来降水总量的变化。根据情景，比较远的将来，年降水量的增长将远远大于不久的将来的年降水量增长。根据 RCP4.5 情景，从 2071年到 2100 年尤其如此，与 1971–2000 年相比，降水量增加了 19.9％。可以预见， RCP4.5 和 8.5 下不久的将来的年降水量可能会比 1971–2000 年增加 13.6％和 10.5％。在 RCP 4.5 和 RCP 8.5 方案中，在不久的将来可能分别进一步增长19.9％和 18.1％。在季节变化上，雨季降水会继续增加，旱季降水会更加减少。此外，在不久的将来，与其他季节相比，预计冬季的降水量将略有增加。最低温度以及最高温度在将来会有所增加。与基线期相比， MME 预测的近期（2039–2065）和远期（2071–2100）期间的平均增长率为 0.37°C /十年，RCP4.5 为 0.33°C /十年， 0.50°C / RCP8.5 的十年和 0.61°C /十年。 2036–2100 年流域的年平均降水量和温度。未来的温度趋势显示了温室气体排放的各种情况，在 RCP4.5 下，到 21 世纪末，变暖将缓慢，而在 RCP8.5 下，变暖将持续上升。（3）水文模型模拟显示区域内未来径流量有所增加。利用土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）模型应用于布克特尔玛河流域，评估克特尔玛河高山雪流域对未来气候变化响应及其水资源量的时空变化。该模型利用 2009-2011 年进行了校准，并针对 2011-2013 年进行了验证。确定系数（R2 = 0.79; 0.83）、纳什-舒特克利夫效率指数（NS = 0.78; 0.81），克林古普塔效率（KGE = 0.82; 0.81）和误差百分比显示出模拟取得了较好的结果。日尺度模拟的率定和验证均达到了良好的结果（PBIAS = 8.7; 11.5）。利用 GCM 数据 2036–2065 和 2071–2100 中预测未来径流量，在这两个时间段中布克特玛河流域的洪峰最大值提前发生，径流量急剧增加。在 Lesnaya Pristan 站的出水口，未来两个时期的流量将相对于控制期变化 13.8％，在 RCP4.5 下为 10.78％，在 RCP8.5 下为 6.9％， 4.8％，径流量呈现增加趋势。 |
| Other Abstract | The spatial and temporal distribution of water on the earth's surface is veryuneven, and its spatiality and timeliness affect the utilization efficiency of waterresources. For example, the utilization of flood resources has always been one of theproblems in water resources utilization. Under the background of climate change,extreme climate events such as floods and droughts occur frequently, and localagriculture, ecology and urbanization have high requirements for water resources. Thehigh temporal and spatial variability of water resources makes water resourcesmanagement very difficult. The trend of climate change in the past century and theforecast of global climate change in the future have shown the change of precipitationpattern, the rise of temperature and the decrease of glacier and snow area. Climatechange will aggravate the variation of the water cycle, which will have a seriousimpact on the global and regional water resources. In the past few decades, humanactivities have intensified the competition for limited freshwater resources amongwater using units such as agriculture, city and industry. Therefore, the analysis ofclimate change trends and quantification of climate change impacts is the premise ofscientific management and planning.Buqtyrma river basin is located in the Altai Mountains. Its climate and waterresource change are of great significance to agriculture and the ecosystem. In thefuture, climate change will change the hydrological cycle of the whole basin.Therefore, under the condition of climate change and rapid socio-economicdevelopment, the key to water security is to evaluate the impact of climate change andhuman activities on runoff. A hydrological simulation is an important tool for basinwater resources planning, process and management. It is very important to use thesemodels for under-explored or underdeveloped basins.The main goal of this study is to quantitative assess the impact of climatevariability and anthropogenic activities on water resources. Influence the projectedclimate change on runoff using climate elasticity method and assessment the responseof hydrological modelling in Buqtyrma River Basin (BRB). In order to achieve thisgoal, the following tasks are set up: 1) To detect historical long-term trends and abruptchanges in streamflow and meteorological data resulting from climatic fluctuations inthe Buqtyrma River basin; 2) To investigate and quantitatively evaluate the effect of climate variability and human activity on runoff between the upstream, midstream anddownstream regions of Buqtyrma River Basin; 3) To assess the impact of climatechange in a multi-model ensemble (MME) using six future climate predictions ofgeneral circulation models (GCM) for temperature and precipitation under RCP4.5and RCP 8.5 scenarios; 4) To derive the runoff elasticities (2036-2065, 2071-2100under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to both climate variables (precipitation and potentialevapotranspiration) according to the historical runoff data (1971–2000) under climateelasticity method; 5) To evaluate the performance of global climate variables datasetsfor the Buqtyrma River Basin; 6) To test the capabilities of the SWAT model for the2009-2013 simulation of streamflow in the Buqtyrma River Basin; 7) To assess theimpact of climate change on water resources in the Buqtyrma River Basin underdifferent climate change scenarios based on the results of a calibrated hydrologicalmodel; 8) To evaluate the changes in low and high extreme flows and temporal shiftsin peak flows in the Buqtyrma River Basin..The results show that:1. The differences in temperature, precipitation and PET series were analyzedand calculated the runoff in the three different elevation zones during last 65 years todetect the variations and clarify the effects of climatic factors on runoff in BuqtyrmaRiver Watershed. The MK test was applied to analyze long-term trends for varioushydro climatic variables. Determined change-point by using the Pettitt test and DCC(Double cumulative curve). In the upper part in the Buqtyrma River Basin, the rangeof annual average runoff was found 329.6 to 1014.3 mm over the period of 1950–2015 and the annual average was observed 599.4 mm. In the middle part, the meanannual runoff ranged from 259.26 to 769.03 mm with an annual average of 481 mm,and the average annual ranged from 345.42 to 1195.7 mm in the lower part with anaverage annual runoff value of 633 mm. In the upper, middle and lower reaches of thecatchment the value of the statistics of Z based on MK test showed the 2.58, 0.87 and1.82, respectively, suggesting that the annual runoff has shown a tendency to increasethroughout the study area with a speed of 2.82 mm/year, 0.56 mm/year, and 2.3mm/year in the upper, middle and lower part, respectively, over the past 65 years. Theresults of the Pettitt test and DCC method showed that the first obvious shift occurredin 1982, reflecting a period that until 1982 can be considered a “natural base year”without anthropogenic disturbances, and 1983–2015 can be considered as a “impact stage of human activity”. Consequently, the reference period of runoff might bedivided into the change period (1983–2015) and baseline period (1950–1982). Inorder to clarify, further was divided the anthropogenic activity stage into three periodsas 1983–1995, 1996–2005 and 2006–2015. Among the periods, the degree ofcontribution of climate change to variations in runoff was the greatest in the upstreamand midstream areas, and the smallest in the downstream areas during the period from1996 to 2005. The climatic factors and human activity have been examined withrespect as effect factors and has been computed the percentage of effectscontributions. The upper and middle areas of the catchment were the most affectedareas by climate change (increasing to 70% and 62.11% during 1983–2015). In thelower part was the effect of human activities was more notable (84.66% during 1983–2015), while the effect of climate alteration was only accounted of 15.34%, indicatingthe effect of anthropogenic activities was of most significance.Relative changes in the runoff to changes in precipitation and potentialevapotranspiration were obtained from the climatic elasticity and RCP scenarios. Theresults of the MME under RCPs4.5 and 8.5 during both future periods (2036–2065and 2071-2100) projected changes in relative precipitation are 28.3%, 41.62% and8.73%, 13.46% and the relative potential evapotranspiration is –9.78%, –16.23% and–3.18%, –0.45% which would lead to an increase of the relative runoff changes by18.53%,25.40% and 8.91%,13.38% compared with the baseline period (1971–2000),respectively.2. GCMs were ranked firstly using spatial performance indicators: Spatialcorrelation (R), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE), Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE) andRoot Mean Square Error (RMSE). Then, a GCM subset (MME) was selected based onthe common ranks, and a precipitation and temperature data set for the MME wasobtained. For the prediction of precipitation and temperature in the future were usedGCM data from 2036 to 2100. The future time period was divided into 2 timelines of30 years’ interval each: the 2030s (2036–2065) and the 2070s (2071–2100). Futurechanges in precipitation amounts were estimated with both RCPs4.5 and 8.5 scenariosusing the Delta method. According to the scenarios, the annual increase inprecipitation in the far future was much larger than that in the near future. This wasespecially true for the period from 2071 to 2100 according to the RCP4.5 scenarios,which represented an increase in precipitation of 19.9% compared with the period1971–2000. It could be predicted that future annual precipitation in the near future under both RCPs4.5 and 8.5 probably increase by 13.6% and 10.5% compared with1971–2000. While in the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a further increase of 19.9%and 18.1% is probable in the far future, respectively. Likewise, in the wet seasonprecipitation an increase and decrease in some dry season precipitation is expected.Moreover, in the near future a slight increase in precipitation in winter could beexpected compared to other seasons. Minimum temperature, as well as maximumtemperature, are subject to increase in the future, as projected by MME. Comparedwith the baseline period, the average increased rates predicted by the MME for near(2039–2065) and far future (2071–2100) periods are 0.37 °C/decade, 0.33 °C/decadefor RCP4.5, 0.50 °C/decade and 0.61 °C/decade for RCP 8.5. The average yearlyprecipitation and temperature in the basin from 2036–2100. Future temperature trendsshowed various scenarios of greenhouse gas emission and at the end of the 21thcentury warming will be slow under RCP4.5, while it will rise continuously forRCP8.5.3. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to theBuqtyrma River Basin. SWAT applied to evaluate the performance in the high snowwatershed of the Buqtyrma River in response to climate change on future runoffvolume in two space and time. Model is calibrated for the years 2009–2011 andvalidated for the years 2011–2013 with four recommended statistical coefficients. Themodel generates good results for daily calibration and daily validation with thecoefficient of determination (R2=0.79; 0.83), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency index(NS=0.78; 0.81), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE=0.82; 0.81), Percent Deviation(PBIAS=8.7; 11.5), respectively. The model is also evaluated General CirculationModels (GCM) data in the 5th IPCC report, in which 1971–2000. It was used as abase period for predicting future runoff in two periods 2036–2065 and 2071–2100. Inboth warming scenarios, at 2036–2065 and 2071–2100 the maximum values of theBuqtyrma River Basin are shifted at an earlier time with a sharp increase in runoff. Atthe flow outlet of the Lesnaya Pristan station, streamflow in two future periods willchange by 13.8%, 10.78% under RCP4.5 and 6.9%, 4.8% under RCP8.5 relative tothe control period, runoff shows an increasing tendency. |
| Subject Area | 地图学与地理信息系统 |
| Language | 英语 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15394 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Moldir Rakhimova. 气候变化和人类活动对布克特玛河流域水资源的影响[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020. |
| Files in This Item: | There are no files associated with this item. | |||||
Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
Edit Comment