KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 气候变化和人类活动对锡尔河流域径流的长期影响 | |
| Alternative Title | Long-term changes of the Syr Darya River Basin Runoff under climate change and human activities |
| Sanim Bissenbayeva | |
| Subtype | 博士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 吉力力阿不都外力 |
| 2020-05-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学博士 |
| Keyword | 锡尔河流域 中亚 水文模拟 气候变化 一般气候模式（GCM） Syr Darya River Basin Central Asia Hydrological Sensitivity Climate change General Climate Model (GCM) |
| Abstract | 干旱区水资源是维系生态环境安全和维持干旱区社会经济可持续发展的重要保障。 在气候变化和日益增强的人类活动的强烈影响下,干旱区水资源的时空格局发生了显著变化。尤其是大坝的修建， 工农业耗水量的增加叠加在气候变化之上，导致了全球范围内的河流水文情势发生了显著变化， 给水资源管理带来了严峻的挑战。 作为两条主要入湖河流之一的锡尔河的径流变化直接影响到咸海水量平衡；同时， 锡尔河流域的水资源在满足咸海流域乃至整个中亚的水资源需求方面发挥着重要作用， 由于上游河源区气候变化和下游水资源不合理利用，特别是在近 80年来工农业的迅猛发展，水利建设和其它政治因素等人类活动的影响下，锡尔河流域开始出现缺水状况，导致的下游水供给能力的下降，其产生的农业生产、市政和工业用水压力预计将对流域内居民的生产生活产生严重影响。 总体来看，锡尔河流域地表径流的变化对吉尔吉斯斯坦，乌兹别克斯坦，塔吉克斯坦和哈萨克斯坦境内人民生产生活以及周围的生态系统产生重要影响。 但是， 中亚咸海流域复杂的自然环境背景以及水利工程的修建加剧了河流水文系统的复杂性， 对评估当前流域水文状况及预测未来变化产生了极大的不确定性。 本研究试图通过分析锡尔河流域气候变化和人类活动对地表径流的影响基础上， 建立预测模型研究未来气候变化背景下的径流变化趋势，研究结果对锡尔河流域乃至咸海流域的水资源管理具有重要意义。本文研究的目的在于增进对锡尔河流域对气候变化和人类活动的水文响应的理解。本文主要取得的研究成果如下： 定量分析锡尔河河流径流量的时间序列变化； 定量分析流域主要气象要素的时间序列变化； 理清降水模式变化与大规模大气环流之间的联系以及气候与径流之间关系； 分析了锡尔河流域的历史土地利用变化和人类活动变化及其气候变化对其产生的影响文章通过采用 Pettitt 检验和 Mann-Kendall（MK）趋势检验在内的非参数检验方法，对长时间的水文时间序列的进行趋势检验。 基于降水和潜在的蒸散量， 采用多种方法来评估气候变化和人类活动对年径流量的影响。为了预测未来径流变化，我们利用基于 GCM 模型集合(MIROC5、 MPI-ESM-LR 和 MPI-ESM-MR)和两种气候变化情景(RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5)得到的未来预估气温计算出未来的降水量和潜在蒸散发，通过以上气候因子来驱动气候弹性模型。论文的主要研究工作和结论如下:(1) 本文研究了过去 85 年锡尔河流域的水文气候趋势及其周期性变化，以此确定区域内气象要素和径流的时空变化趋势。结果表明，所有站点的年均气温都呈显著上升趋势，并且在近十年中呈现加速上升的趋势；年均降水趋势因气象站位置而不同，但是总体上呈现增加趋势。 从上世纪 60 年代以来， 锡尔河干流年径流量呈显著下降的趋势， 在 17 个水文站中，有 13 个的年径流量呈显著下降趋势， 但近年老有所上升。 从 1991 年以来锡尔河流域年径流量呈增加趋势， 。降水趋势和径流趋势的相关性结果表明， 1980 年以来，气候变化可能导致流域径流增加， 其中冬季增加明显。(2) 另一方面利用水文敏感性方法评估 1930 年至 2015 年气候变化和人类活动对锡尔河径流变化的影响。这一时间段被分为两个时期，自然期（1930-1960）和影响期（1961-2015）。 1 人类活动对锡尔河干流径流变化的影响程度约为 91-98%，对流域内支流的影响程度约为 41%-88%。 另外人类活动对流域水资源变化的影响下游地区要大于上游和中游地区。 此外据估计，人类活动解释了年均径流量减少原因的 82-99％，这主要是由于该地区灌溉取水造成的。从生态环境和地区水资源管理的角度看，径流的变化可能导致非常严重的生态后果。(3) 随着人口的不断增长和农业灌溉的进步，与水有关的人类活动，特别是农业生产活动，对水文要素的影响在过去 50 年中逐渐增强。在锡尔河流域，与水有关的人类活动主要是指不断的抽取地表水以满足不断扩大的灌溉农田的需求。锡尔河流域的灌溉面积从 1930 年的 990 公顷增加到 1960 年的 2040 公顷以及2015 年的 3179 公顷，从 1930 年到 2015 年， 该地区的灌溉面积增加了 3 倍，这使流域的总取水量明显增加， 通过比较分析表明，流域的取水量在 1960 年至1980 年期间增加了 50％，在 1980 年至 2013 年期间减少了 29％。此外， 在研究期间流域内最明显的土地利用变化是草地类型的变化，农业管理的现代化导致灌溉用的的增加和快速的城市化导致的城市面积扩张。人们普遍认为，这些类型的土地覆被/利用变化可能对流域的水文状况产生深远的影响。(4) 定量评估气候变化对径流的影响对区域水资源评估和区域发展战略的制定具有重要意义，特别是在水资源短缺且分布不均的地区。与水文模型方法相比，气候弹性模型方法更加灵活，其优势在于使用较少数据来研究气候变暖对流域水资源的影响。本研究使用基于 Budyko 的气候弹性模型，获得了三个主要气候因子的径流弹性。流域径流对降水量的弹性为 0.65～2.76，对气温的弹性为-0.3～-1.6。降水量增加与径流增加呈正相关，而与气温增加呈负相关。(5) 基于气候弹性模型方法与 CMIP5 气候模式对未来水资源变化情景进行预估模型的预测表明，在 2030-2070 年和 2070-2100 年这两个时期内，降水量平均增加了 6％和 22％。预计这两个时期的气温将分别上升 2℃和 3℃。结果表明，在 RCP4.5 情景下，多模型集合预测整个流域的年径流量在不久后将从 30％增加到 37％；在 RCP8.5 情境下，年径流量增长幅度比较明显，达到 41％-43％。锡尔河流域乃至整个中亚地区将受到全球变暖的更多影响。因此，本文结果有助于该地区未来可持续水资源管理策略的制定，有利于消除整个流域的水资源压力和储水脆弱性风险。 |
| Other Abstract | In recent years, the variation of meteorological and hydrological elements andchanges in the hydrological process caused by global climate change and humandisturbance have attracted widespread attention. Reservoirs, the water consumptive useand climate warming have resulted in river fragmentation and basin runoff modificationon a global scale. The rising air temperature will impact changes in the mean watervapor, precipitation character and evapotranspiration, which further leads to changes,for instance, in river runoff. Prediction of future changes in the hydrological cycle of theAral Sea Basin in Central Asia are nevertheless notably uncertain, due to complexitiesof engineered and natural water systems of the river basin. The Syr Darya River is vitalto the water budget of the Aral Sea, the livelihood in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistanand Kazakhstan, as well as the surrounding ecosystem. This study attempts toinvestigate the changes of river runoff in the Sуr Darуa Basin to projected future climatechange and to assess human activity in this region.The water source of the Syr Darya River Basin playing an important role for meetingthe water resources requirements in the Aral Sea basin region and Central Asia. Thereducing water availability due by climate change in the source region of the basin isexpected to have severe repercussions for the million basin population in terms of waterresources affecting agricultural productivity, municipal, and industrial water supply.Moreover, during the 80 years, due to the strong human activities, such as the drasticagricultural and industrial development, water constructions and water politics, in SyrDarya River Basin and basin nations water stress situation begun. Therefore, this studyinvestigated the effects of climate variation and human activities on surface river runoffin the Syr Darya Basin. The presented results have important implications for waterresources management in the Syr Darya River Basin and Aral Sea basin. To assess thechange in runoff in the basin, we analyzed two dominant factors affecting runoff:clіmate change and human actіvіty.The aim of this research was to improve comprehension of the hydrological responseof major river basin (the Syr Darya River) to climate variability and human activity. Thefollowing specific research aspects have been addressed: identification of the temporalchanges in the runoff regime; identification of the temporal changes in the precipitationregime; linkage between the observed precipitation pattern change and large-scale atmospheric circulation; assessment of the climate-runoff relations; identification ofhistorical land use changes and human activities in the Sуr Darуa Basin and assessmentof potential impacts climate change.The long-term trends of the meteo-hydrological time series were examined by nonparametric techniques, including the Pettitt test and Mann–Kendall (MK) trend tests. Asimple method as Hydrological sensitivities was employed to estimate the effects ofclimate warming and human activities on annual average runoff based on precipitationand potential evapotranspiration. For assessment future runoff change we useddownscaled projected future precipitation and potential evapotranspiration based onprojected temperature from GCM ensemble (MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESMMR) and 2 scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to force the Climate Elasticity model.The main research work and contributions of this paper are as follows:(1) Hydroclimatic trend and periodicity during the last 85 years were investigated toidentify significant changes of the meteorological variables and runoff in time and spаceover the study аreа. Results indicated that mean annual temperature rising for all meteostations and it had an accelerated increasing positive trend during the last decade. Meanannual precipitation trends varied depending on location of the meteo-station; though,they were generally slightly growthing. Annual average runoff declined markedlymainly from the 1960s, however showed recovery during recent years. It was detectedthat 13 out of the 17 hydrological stations had significant downward trends in theannual runoff. Furthermore, basin runoff exhibited increasing trends since 1991. Therunoff trends result associated with precipitation trends indicated that climate changemight have contributed to increasing runoff since 1980 in the basin, particularly in thewinter season.(2) The next work was assess the contributions of climate change and human activityto runoff change in the Syr Darya River from 1930 to 2015 by hydrological sensitivitymethod. The natural period ranged from 1930 to 1960, and the affected period rangedfrom 1961 to 2015. The impacts induced by human activity on runoff change were asfollows: 91-98% in the Syr Darya River, 41% - 88% in the large tributaries of the basin.The effects of human activity on river water resources change were larger in thedownstream area than in either upstream and midstream areas. However, thecontribution of climate change (34%) is slightly increasing. In addition, estimated thatthe human activities accounted for over 82-99% of the reduction in mean annual runoffmainly due to water withdraw for irrigations. Observed changes in runoff can lead to unfavorable ecological consequences from the ecological and region‘s water resourcesmanagement perspective.(3) Following, we have analyzed the various types of human activity in the SyrDarya river basin. With the continuous increase in population and the development ofthe agricultural industry, the effects of water-related human activities, especiallyagricultural production activities, on hydrology have intensified in the past 50 years. Inthe Syr Darya River basin, water-related human activities mainly refer to extractingsurface water to satisfy the continuous expansion of irrigated agricultural land. Theirrigation area in the Syr Darya River basin increased from 990 ths.ha in 1930 to 2040ths.ha in 1960 and 3179 ths.ha in 2015, thereby increasing by three times from 1930 to2015, which increased the total water withdrawal from the river basin. The comparativeanalysis showed that water withdrawal in the basin increased by 50% from 1960 to1980 and decreased by 29% from 1980 to 2013. Moreover, during the study period, themost obvious land use changes in the river basin are grassland type change,modernisation of agricultural management practices and rapid urbanisation. These typesof land cover/use changes have been generally recognised to potentially have the mostsignificant effects on the hydrology regime of a river basin.(4) Comprehension of the effects of climate on river runoff is of great importance forwater resource assessments and developments of the adaptation strategy especially forthe regions where scare and unevenly distributed water are available. Compared to themethod of the hydrological modeling method, the climate elasticity approach is moreflexible with the advantage of using a few data in deciding the issue of investigating theinfluences of climate warming on the basin's water resources. This investigation appliesBudyko-based climate elasticity approach, to obtain the elasticities of the river flow tothree major climate variables. The runoff elasticity to precipitation change in the riverbasin was estimated to be 0.65-2.76, and the elasticity to temperature was -0.3 to -1.6.Precipitation growth showed a positive effect, and temperature increases showed anegative effect on runoff increases.(5) Future water resources change scenarios are proposed based on climate elasticityapproach and CMIP5 climate model prediction method respectively. Climate forecastsfrom the above three GCMs showed that precipitation increased by 6% and 22% onaverage during the considering periods of 2030–2070 and 2070–2100. Temperatureswere projected to be increased by 2.0°C and 3.0°C for the two periods. For the nearfuture period, results exhibited that for whole river basins, multi-model ensemble predicted a rising of annual runoff from 30% to 37% under the RCP4.5 scenario. Underthe RCP8.5 scenario, the rising is more pronounced: 41%-43%. The Syr Darya RiverBasin as whole Central Asia regions will be more affected by global warming.These results thereby may be applied to devise effective strategies for futuresustainable water planning and management in the basin, while combatingvulnerabilities against water storage and water stress in Syr Darya River basin. |
| Subject Area | 地图学与地理信息系统 |
| Language | 英语 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15398 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Sanim Bissenbayeva. 气候变化和人类活动对锡尔河流域径流的长期影响[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020. |
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