KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 哈萨克斯坦埃西尔河流域干旱监测及未来不同GCM情景(RCP 4.5-8.5)下的干旱程度预测 | |
| Alternative Title | ASSESSING of PRECIPITATION and COMBINED THREAT of DROUGHT and SOIL DEGRADATION in AGRICULTURE and THE FUTURE FORECASTING of PRECIPITATION and DROUGHT on GCM SCENARIOS (RCP4.5-8.5) in ESIL RIVER BASIN (ERB),Kazakhstan. |
| Yerbolat Mukanov | |
| Subtype | 博士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 陈亚宁（Chen Yaning） |
| 2020-06-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学博士 |
| Keyword | SPI 标准降水指数 SPEI 标准降水蒸发蒸腾指数 sc-PDSI 自校准帕尔默干旱严重程度指数 GCM 模型 订正通用土壤流失方程(RUSLE) 土壤侵蚀 Standard Precipitation Index Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index General Circulation Model RUSLE Soil erosion |
| Abstract | 水资源是干旱和半干旱地区经济和社会发展的关键自然要素，在保障区域社会发展和人民生活中发挥着重要作用。伊希姆河流域（Esil River Basin）发源于哈萨克高地北部尼亚兹山地，向西流经阿斯塔纳， 再向北折流经伊希姆平原，穿过俄罗斯的秋明州和鄂木斯克州， 一直延伸到额尔齐斯河的汇合处， 是哈萨克斯坦的主要农业产区。 该流域降水稀少、水资源缺乏，对气候变化非常敏感， 是哈萨克斯坦北部地区农业生产的高风险地区。本论文基于研究区 44 个气象站数据以及 CRU 数据集，根据 MK 检验、 Sen's Slope 和 Pettit 检验方法，分析了 1901-2018 年间伊希姆河流域降水和干旱的时空变化特征，并讨论了不同情景下伊希姆河流域降水和干旱状况的未来趋势。同时，结合对研究区土地退化和土壤侵蚀的分析，利用 RS 和 GIS 技术对伊希姆河流域的土壤侵蚀损失进行了计算，确定了流域土壤退化的最脆弱区域，并针对性地提出了减缓土壤退化的建议。论文取得的主要进展和成果如下：1.本文使用 MK 检验、 Sen's Slope 和 Pettit 检验方法，基于 CRU 的年尺度降水数据，分析了历史时期以及未来的降水变化。结果表明：（1） 在伊希姆河流域北部地区，降水增长呈显著增加趋势（P<0.05），而在伊希姆河流域南部地区，降水呈明显下降趋势（P<0.05），伊希姆河流域的其他地区没有表现出显著变化。（2） Pettit 检验表明，在 1915-1930 年间伊希姆河流域南部和东南部降水发生了突变式下降。根据 CMIP5 的 GCM MME 数据，发现在 RCP4.5 情景下，降水在流域东南部、北部、中部和南部有明显的上升趋势（P<0.05），其余地区无明显变化，而 Pettit 检验结果表明， 伊希姆河流域东南部的 2 个气象站（Korneevka 和 Karkaraly）出现了上升趋势，并在 2053-2056 年期间发生了突变；（3） 在 RCP8.5 情景下，除 Aksu-Ayuly 气象站以外，研究区域总体呈现降水增长趋势，降水增加率依次为北部>中部>东南部>南部。根据 Pettit 检验方法，预计 2053 年至 2074 年之间除了东南部地区以外，伊希姆河流域的降水总体会出现显著上升趋势。2. 基于多个干旱指标分析了历史时期伊希姆河流域的干湿变化。结果表明：(1)根据 MK 检验发现在伊希姆河流域北部大部分地区的 SPI 指数均有明显的上升趋势（MK 的 Z 值介于 2.079 至 2.819， P<0.005）， 而在南部地区 SPI 呈总体显著下降趋势（MK 的 Z 值介于-2.27 至-2.72， P<0.05）。在伊希姆河流域的其余地区，未发现干湿条件发生明显变化。利用 Sen’s Slope 也得到了相同的结果；（2）在 1901-2018 年间，伊希姆河流域的 SPEI 只有南部地区呈现下降趋势（Z 值介于-2.010 至-2.712， P<0.05），其余大部分地区均未显示出显著变化（Z 值<1.98， P> 0.05）。同时 Sen’ s Slope 的最小值也分布在伊希姆河流域的南部地区；（3）以改进帕默尔干旱指数(sc PDSI) 对伊希姆河流域干旱时空特征进行分析。结果表明在 1901-2018 年间，仅 Petropavlovsk 气象站的 scPDSI 出现了明显的上升趋势（MK Z 值=2.391， P<0.05）。在南部、东南部大部分地区和中部地区， sc PDSI 有明显的下降趋势（MK Z 值介于-2.33 至-2.48，P<0.05）。研究区域的其余部分没有明显变化。同时 Sen’ s Slope 检验结果表明， sc-PDSI 的变化在伊希姆河流域北部最高，介于 0.004 至 0.013，在南部地区最低，介于-0.010 至-0.025，在东南部介于-0.005 至-0.018，中部地区介于-0.014 至 0.009。3. 基于 CMIP5 的 MME 在 RCP4.5 情景下的未来气候变化数据，计算了 2019-2100 年间伊希姆河流域的多个干旱指标。结果表明：（1） SPI 在伊希姆河流域的大部分地区无显著变化；（2） SPEI 在空间上普遍呈下降趋势，这表明伊希姆河流域有变干趋势；（3） sc-PDSI 的变化趋势表明，在伊希姆河流域南部、中部大部分地区和东南部地区，有变干趋势。总体而言， 未来伊希姆河流域总体有变干趋势，而在北部地区干湿条件变化不明显。4. 基于 CMIP5 MCM 在 RCP8.5 情景下的未来气候变化数据，计算了 2019-2100 年间伊希姆河流域的多个干旱指标的空间变化。结果表明，（1） SPI 在伊希姆河流域的大部分地区呈上升趋势，其中 Sen’ s Slope 的斜率介于 0.008至 0.02 之间；（2） SPEI 在空间上普遍呈下降趋势（MK 的 Z 值介于-3.356 至-8.55， P<0.05），同时 Sens’ Slope 的斜率介于-0.014 至 -0.031，总体上表现出伊希姆河流域在向干旱趋势变化；（3） sc-PDSI 的变化趋势表明，除了伊希姆河的东南部地区有变干趋势外，流域总体的干湿条件没有明显变化。5. 根据土壤流失模型估算了伊希姆河流域土壤侵蚀情况，发现土壤侵蚀量为 565368.7 t y-1，变化范围为 0-32 t y-1 km-2。这一研究结论有助于对比每个地区的人均地区生产总值(GRP)。此外，提出了防治土壤退化的相关建议。 |
| Other Abstract | Water resources are the key natural elements of economic and social developmentin arid and semi-arid areas, playing an important role in ensuring regional sustainabledevelopment. The Esil River Basin (ERB) is sourced from the Northern and CentralKazakhstan and it flows through the Tyumen and Omsk regions of Russian and finallyflows into the Irtysh River. It serves as the main agricultural production area inKazakhstan and is featured with frequent droughts, lack of rain and water resources,and is very sensitive to climate change.This thesis focuses on spatial and temporal variations in precipitation and droughtindexes for the period 1901-2018. The changes in precipitation and drought indexeswere examined using Mann Kendall test (MK-test), Sen’s Slope and Pettit test. Futuretrends in precipitation and drought conditions were predicted based on GCM CMIP5MME under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Meanwhile, soil erosion lossesthroughout the ERB were calculated based on RS and GIS techniques. The vulnerableareas of soil degradation were identified. Recommendations are also given onmitigating soil degradation.The following conclusions could be drawn.1. Based on annual precipitation data from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) forthe period 1901-2018, we have investigated precipitation changes over the mentionedperiod using the MK test, Sen's Slope and Pettit test. (1) The results showed asignificant trend in precipitation in the northern part of the ERB (P value <0.05) and asignificant downward trend in precipitation in the southern part of the ERB (P value<0.05), while other parts of the ERB did not show significant changes. The Pettit testrevealed a significant downward trend in precipitation in the southern andsoutheastern parts of ERB with abrupt change detected during the period 1915-1930;(2) Analysis of precipitation for future period based on GCM CMIP5 data MMEunder RCP4.5 scenario according to MK test and Sen's Slope showed that asignificant upward trend in precipitation in the southeastern part, northern part, middlepart and the southern part (P value <0.05), while there were no significant changes inother regions. The Pettit test revealed an uptrend only at 2 meteorological stations(Korneevka and Karkaraly) in the southeastern part of ERB with abrupt change inperiod 2053-2056. (3) According to GCM CMIP5 MME under RCP8.5 scenario, the trend of precipitation growth is everywhere significant in the study area with theexception of MS Aksu-Ayuly. According to the MK test and Sen's Slope, theprecipitation increasing rates are the highest at northern part, followed by the middlepart, southeastern part and the southern part. According to the Pettit test, a significantuptrend is expected everywhere in the ERB between 2053-2074 years, except thesoutheastern part.2. An analysis of the annual spatial conditions of drought for the period 1901-2018showed that: (1) a significant upward trend in SPI for most part in the northern zoneof ERB (MK Z score from 2.079 to 2.819 and P value <0.005), and a significantdownward trend for most southern zone ERB (MK Z score from 2.27 to 2.72 and Pvalue <0.05). No significant changes in humidification conditions were detected in therest of the ERB. The same results were got by Sen's Slope; (2) Analysis of theconditions of spatial drought reflected by SPEI did not show significant changes inmost of the ERB during 1901-2018 (Z score <1.98, P value> 0.05), except thesouthern part of the study area, where significant downtrend were observed (Z scorefrom -2.010 to -2.712, P value <0.05). The maximum magnitudes for Sen's Slope wereobserved in the northern part of the ERB, and the minimum values were in thesouthern part of the ERB; (3) The use of sc-PDSI in combination with MK test forperiod 1901-2018 revealed a significant upward trend in drought conditions only forMS Petropavlovsk (MK Z score = 2.391, P value <0.05). A significant downwardtrend was observed in the southern part, most of the southeast zone and in the middleof the ERB (MK Z score from -2.33 to -2.48, P value <0.05). The rest of the studyarea has no significant changes. The Sen's Slope of sc-PDSI was highest in thenorthern part of ERB from 0.004 to 0.013. The lowest values of Sen's Slope formed inthe southern part of the ERB from -0.010 to -0.025, in the southeastern part the valueswere from -0.005 to -0.018 and in the middle were in the range from -0.014 to +0.009.3. Analysis of drought spatial conditions for the period 2019-2100 for future periodbased on GCM CMIP5 data MME RCP 4.5 scenario according to MK test and Sen'sSlope showed that: (1) The SPI drought spatial conditions are expected everywherewithout significant changes. The highest SPI is expected in the southeastern part ofthe ERB while lowest in the northern part; (2) The SPEI shows a universallysignificant downward trend, which indicates a significant deterioration inhumidification conditions in ERB; (3) Analysis of drought conditions reflected by sc-PDSI shows a significant deterioration in drought conditions in the southern part, themost part middle zone and the southeast zone of the ERB. Sen-Slope of sc-PDSI isgradually decreasing from north to south by ERB. In general, such results indicate asignificant deterioration in humidification conditions in the predominant territory ofERB, with the exception of its northern part, where no significant changes areexpected.4. Analysis of drought evolution for the period 2019-2100 based on GCM CMIP5data MME under RCP8.5 scenario according to MK test and Sen's Slope showed that:(1) The SPI shows a universally significant uptrend according to the results of MKtest and the magnitude of Sen's Slope of SPIs ranged from 0.008 to 0.02; (2) The SPEIshows a significant downward trend in humidification conditions according to theresults of MK test (MK Z score from -3.356 to -8.55, P value <0.05). The Sen's Slopeof SPEI ranged from -0.014 to -0.031. The above results indicate a significantdeterioration in humidification conditions; (3) Analysis of sc-PDSI results shows theabsence of significant changes in drought, with the exception of the southeastern part,where in some places a significant deterioration in moisture conditions is expected.5. The use of RUSLE made it possible to calculate the total level of soil loss, whichmade up 565368.7 (t y-1) and varied in the range from 0 to 32 (t y-1 per 1 km2)throughout the ERB. The results obtained made it possible to compare the level ofGross Regional Product (GRP) per capita depending on the level of land degradation.Based on the results obtained, recommendations were made on mitigating soilerosion. |
| Subject Area | 自然地理学 |
| Language | 英语 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15400 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Yerbolat Mukanov. 哈萨克斯坦埃西尔河流域干旱监测及未来不同GCM情景(RCP 4.5-8.5)下的干旱程度预测[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020. |
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