KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| “一带一路”航空网络结构及优化策略研究 | |
| Alternative Title | Structure and Optimization Strategies of the Air Passengers’ Transport Network in “the Belt and Road” Region |
| 张璐 | |
| Subtype | 博士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 张小雷 |
| 2020-06-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学博士 |
| Keyword | 分布格局 航空网络 影响机制 可靠性 网络优化 “一带一路” distribution pattern network structure influencing factor reliability “the Belt and Road” |
| Abstract | 随着经济全球化、城市化进程的加快，全球化分布不均衡导致的问题日益凸显，引发了“逆全球化”风潮。自“一带一路”倡议提出以来，得到了国际社会的广泛关注和积极响应，开启和引领了全球化的新征程。 “一带一路”倡议提出以互联互通为着力点，促进生产要素自由便利流通。航空运输因其国际化程度高、速度快、能够满足长距离通达需求的独特优势，在推进“一带一路”倡议过程中将扮演着极其重要的角色。航空网络的通达性和可靠性决定了航空运输的运行效率，在“一带一路”倡议和航空运输业快速发展的背景下，航空运输网络的通达性和可靠性是“一带一路”倡议实施过程中亟待解决的重要任务之一。本文以“一带一路”为研究区，探究以“一带一路”沿线主要城市为战略支点的航空网络结构。基于此，本文以航空客流为研究对象，基于复杂网络视角，以“格局-结构-机制-可靠性”为逻辑主线，拓展复杂网络理论在“一带一路”航空网络中的应用。采用“一带一路”沿线 66 个国家的 198 个城市间的航班数据、夜间灯光数据、社会经济数据，揭示“一带一路”经济和航空发展的空间格局特征，解析影响航空网络格局和结构的动力机制，识别影响航空网络可靠性的关键节点，提出优化“一带一路”航空网络结构的策略，主要研究内容和结论如下：（1）探讨“一带一路”航空网络与经济发展的空间格局特征。通过 Theil 分解法，从次区域（东亚、西亚、南亚、东南亚、中亚和中东欧），国家和省级三个层面对经济差异进行了分析。结果表明，次区域之间的经济发展不均衡对“一带一路”经济不均衡的整体差异贡献最大；此外，各个次区域内国家之间的差异较大：西亚国家普遍具有较高的经济发展水平和不平等状态，中东欧国家普遍具有较高且均衡的经济发展水平；南亚和东亚国家的经济发展处于低水平的均衡状态，而东南亚和中亚的经济发展水平则相对较低且不均衡。从航空网络的分布特征来看， “一带一路”航空网络在机场布局、航线分布和周航班次三个方面均呈现出明显的分布不均，其中中国东部沿海城市之间的航班联系频繁。将经济发展与航空网络的空间分布进行对比，发现两者的空间分布呈现出一些共同特征，即两者在地理空间上的分布都表现为“两端高、中间低”的特征，且两者在次区域间的不均衡程度均较大。（ 2）运用复杂网络理论，对航空网络的拓扑结构和多层级结构进行探索。结果表明，第一， “一带一路”地区的航空网络显示出较高的节点度，且路径长度和聚类系数较低，呈现出小世界网络特征。第二， “一带一路”航空网络结构可以分为核心层、桥梁层和边缘层，其中核心层主要包括中国的东部沿海城市、韩国首尔和泰国曼谷。第三，通过探索多层级结构中拓扑特性的演变，可以发现拓扑特征主要是由核心层和桥梁层的内部及其之间的连接产生的。（ 3）运用重力模型，探究了“一带一路”航空客流的影响因素。重点检验了文化差异，制度差异，经济差距，空间距离，人口规模，经济规模，边界效应，国际贸易等八项因素。结果表明，八项因素与“一带一路”地区的航空客流呈现出明显的相关性。首先，文化差异和制度差异与“一带一路”地区的航空客流量呈现负相关。其次，边界效应，人口规模，经济规模和经济差距对航空客流具有正向的影响，且影响力从强到弱依次为边界 > 人口规模 > 经济规模 >经济差距。第三，随着空间距离的增加，航空客流呈现出先增加后减少的趋势。第四，八项影响因素在次区域层级影响的差异性显著。（ 4）提出了一种在加权网络中检验网络可靠性的方法。通过引入递归中心性和递归权利性指标，对加权网络和无权网络中的中心性指标进行了相关性分析，结果表明加权网络中的递归权利性与无权网络中的中介中心性具有最高的相关性，递归中心性和特征向量中心性具有较强的相关性。对加权网络进行蓄意攻击分析，结果表明，蓄意攻击高递归权利性的节点将造成网络更大的损毁，从而高递归权利性的节点在表现网络鲁棒性方面至关重要；提出了提升网络可靠性的方案，即在高递归权利性和低递归权利性的节点之间配置航线，将较大程度提高网络效率。从理论上，对“一带一路”航空网络的分析不仅是对世界城市体系研究的补充，而且是对复杂网络理论的深入研究。从实践角度，对“一带一路”地区的航空网络结构分析对于实现地区经济发展、保障航空运输的稳定性都具有重要的参考意义。 |
| Other Abstract | With the acceleration of the economic globalization and urbanization, the problemscaused by uneven globalization have become increasingly prominent, triggering a trendof reverse globalization. “The Belt and Road” (B&R) initiative, which involves atransport configuration in order to reduce spatial barriers, is leading to a new pathwaytowards inclusive globalization. Air transportation plays a critical role in promoting theB&R initiative due to its unique advantages such as high internationalization, fast speedand the ability to meet long-distance access requirements. In this context, constructingthe air transport infrastructure is one of the important tasks in need of an urgent solution.Understanding the organizational structure of air transport provides a window intostrengthening air transport linkages and regional development cooperation among theB&R countries.Thus, the aim of this dissertation is to explore the structure and develop optimizationstrategies of the air passengers’ transport network in the B&R region. Based on this,this dissertation takes the air passenger flows as the research object, in view of thenetwork perspective and takes the “pattern - structure - mechanism - reliability” systemas the main logic of the research. The datasets of weekly flights and socio-economybetween 198 cities in 66 B&R countries are used to reveal the pattern and structure ofthe B&R aviation network, clarify the influencing factors, identify key nodes affectingreliability. This dissertation firstly explores the distribution pattern of the economicdevelopment and flight distribution in the B&R region. Afterwards, the complexnetwork theory is applied so as to analyze the characteristics of the aviation networkstructure. Then, it investigates the influencing factors of the air passengers and thenetwork robustness. At last, some optimization strategies for air transport developmentare developed. The main results of this dissertation are concluded as follows:(1) The distribution pattern of economy and air passengers are explored. With theapplication of nighttime satellite imagery, economic inequality is conducted at three scales including sub-regional, national, and sub-national levels by means of Theildecomposition method. The outcomes indicate that economic inequality between thesub-regions contributes most to the disparity in the B&R region. Besides, there are quitedifferent disparities between the countries within each sub-region. Specifically, WestAsian countries both have high levels of economic development and economicinequality while Central and Eastern Europe both have high and balanced economicdevelopment. South and East Asia both have low and balanced economic developmentwhile Southeast and Central Asia has relatively low and unbalanced economicdevelopment. In view of the distribution pattern of flight, analysis shows that flightsare distributed unevenly among sub-regions. In contrast, the distribution patterns ofeconomy and flight have common characteristics. Both economy and flights aredistributed as “low middle and high at both ends” and have large disparities among subregions.(2) Air transport network structure in the B&R region is explored. By adoptingcomplex network approaches, this dissertation explores the topological and multilayered structures. Three particular findings stand out. First, the air transport networkin the B&R region displays a higher average degree, and lower path length andclustering coefficient, involving the small-world network features. Second, the nodesin the network can be divided into core, bridge and periphery layer with the applicationof K-core method. The core layer containing most of the cities in east China, Bangkokand Seoul. Third, in particular, by exploring the evolution of the topological propertiesin the multi-layered structure, it is observed that the topological features mainly resultfrom the connections within and between the core and bridge layer, rather than theconnections within the periphery layer and between the other layers.(3) Determinants of air passengers are investigated. Potential factors includingcultural disparity, institutional differences, economic disparity, geographical distance,economy and population size, trade, border are examined. Results show that nearly allindicators exhibit obvious correlations with air passenger flows in the B&R region.Among these, cultural and institutional disparities have negatively correlated with the air passenger flows in the B&R region. Border, population and economy size, economicdistance are found to affect air passenger flows positively, with the order representingthe strength of impacts from strong to weak. Air passenger flows tend to increase firstand decrease then as geographical distance increases. In view of these factors in subregions, it is observed that these factors’ impacts on the air passenger flows vary bysub-regions.(4) An approach of identifying critical elements in weighted networks is developed.Results of correlation analysis between unweighted and weighted networks, therecursive power has the strongest linear correlation with betweenness centrality whilerecursive centrality has the strongest linear regression relation with eigenvectorcentrality. Under targeted and random attacks, it is presented that deactivation ofpowerful nodes can cause a large drop in efficiency, indicating that powerful cities aremore critical than central nodes in the performance of network robustness. Besides,strategically adding edges between high powerful and low powerful nodes can enhancethe network’s ability to exchange resources efficiently.The investigation in this dissertation is theoretical and practical significant. From thetheoretical perspective, the analysis of the B&R cities is not only complementary to theexploration of the world urban system but also an in-depth study of complex networktheory. From the practical perspective, the analysis of air transport in the B&R regionis particularly significant for policy-makers when formulating policies promoting thedevelopment of air transport. |
| Subject Area | 人文地理学 |
| Language | 中文 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15403 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 张璐. “一带一路”航空网络结构及优化策略研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020. |
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