EGI OpenIR
全球升温 1.5℃和 2.0℃下塔里木河与印度河流域水资源短缺风险的比较研究
Alternative TitleComparative Research on the Risk of Water Scarcity in Tarim River Basin and Indus River Basin under the 1.5oC and 2.0oC Global Warming
王安乾
Subtype博士
Thesis Advisor苏布达
2020-09-30
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline理学博士
Keyword水资源短缺 径流构成解析 气候变化 全球升温1.5与2.0℃ 塔里木河流域与印度河流域 water scarcity streamflow composition climate change 1.5 and 2.0oC global warming Tarim River Basin and Indus River Basin
Abstract水资源短缺是目前全球面临的重大问题,已经成为制约社会经济可持续发展的关键因素。 造成水资源短缺的主要原因是水资源供需不平衡。塔里木河流域与印度河流域是水资源严重短缺的区域之一,冰川融水是其河川径流的重要补给来源,而在全球变暖的大背景下,气温的升高使区域水资源产生重大变化。 随着社会经济的快速发展, 区域未来需水量将有大幅上升,进一步增加水资源的供需矛盾。本研究基于观测的气象和水文数据, 针对塔里木河流域“四源”和印度河流域上游的多个流域,构建了冰川补给流域的水文模型,定量评估降雨、 积雪融水和冰川融水对河川径流的贡献; 以3个全球气候模式( GFDL-ESM2M,HadGEM2-ES和MIROC5) 驱动流域水文模型, 解析了未来径流组成。 基于塔里木河流域和印度河流域在历史时期的用水,结合经过本地化及空间插值后的塔里木河流域与印度河流域在共享社会经济路径(SSP1-5)下的社会经济数据(人口与经济),预估未来农业用水、 生产用水和生活用水量。 最终分析全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃情景下水资源短缺的程度、定量评估水资源短缺的社会经济影响风险。主要成果有:(1) 塔里木河流域与印度河流域的历史时期气温和降水均为上升的趋势,塔里木河流域气温上升速率高于印度河流域,降水低于印度河流域;塔里木河流域的径流为增加趋势,而印度河流域径流则为下降趋势。(2) 构建的HBV-Light模型对塔里木河流域“四源”的7个水文站以及印度河流域上游4个水文站的径流均有较好的模拟能力, 能够用于径流的变化特征研究。 基准期, 塔里木河流域源区的径流为214.3亿m³。 全球升温1.5℃情景下, 增加至244.6亿m³; 2.0℃情景继续上升0.7亿m³。印度河流域上游的径流在基准期为1454.1亿m³。 全球升温1.5℃情景下,上游的径流为1584.6亿m³; 全球升温2.0℃则为1577.3亿m³。(3)基准期, 塔里木河流域“四源”区的降雨、积雪融水和冰川融水径流对总径流的贡献分别为43.4%、 18.9%和37.7%。而在全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃背景下,降雨径流的比重逐渐降低,而积雪融水和冰川融水径流的比重则持续增加。基准期,印度河上游的降雨、积雪融水和冰川融水径流对径流的贡献分别47.5%、27.7%和24.8%,全球升温1.5℃,三者占总径流的51.3%、 25.5%和23.2%,而在2.0℃,则变为52.6%、 25.1%和22.3%。印度河上游,降雨径流的比重不断增加,而冰川融水和积雪融水径流的比重则持续减少。(4) 历史时期,塔里木河流域的农业、 生产和生活用水分别为147.8亿m³、0.8亿m³和1.2亿m³。 全球升温1.5℃背景下, 不同行业的用水量分别为168.6亿m³、2.1亿m³和2.0亿m³; 全球升温2.0℃背景下, 则为171.1亿m³、 2.3亿m³和2.0亿m³。塔里木河流域的农业用水量占到总流域用水量的97%以上,是用水的重要组成部分, 生产和生活用水也持续增加。 与塔里木河流域相似,印度河流域的农业用水的比重也在95%以上。 1986-2005年,印度河流域的农业、 生产和生活用水分别为976.6亿m³、 17.0亿m³和35.5亿m³,而在全球升温1.5℃背景,分别为1083.4亿m³、 55.2亿m³和85.8亿m³,全球2.0℃背景下, 分别为1110.1亿m³、 86.4亿m³和95.8亿m³。农业用水占总用水的比重持续下降, 生产用水和生活用水的比重则持续上升。(5)基准期,塔里木河流域的水资源短缺指数为64.4%,而在全球升温1.5℃背景下则上升到66.6%,全球升温2.0℃背景下为67.1%; 印度河流域在1986-2005年中的水资源短缺指数为67.4%,在全球升温1.5℃情景上升为75.9%,全球升温2.0℃进一步上升至79.4%。塔里木河流域与印度河流域一直处在水资源短缺的状态,且随全球气温的升高和社会经济发展,供水与需水之间的矛盾进一步增加,水资源短缺状态持续严峻。而在整个21世纪,塔里木河流域水资源短缺指数均小于100%,流域内水资源量仍能满足其社会经济的发展;而印度河流域,在21世纪末期, 流域内的水资源已经无法满足社会发展所需。 全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃背景下, 塔里木河流域与印度河流域中,全部的耕地、人口和国内生产总值均收到水资源短缺的影响, 但印度河流域会出现水资源无法满足社会发展需求的现象。
Other AbstractWater scarcity is a major problem of the world, and has become a key factorrestricting the sustainable development of social economy. The main cause of waterscarcity is the imbalance of water supply and demand. Glacier melt water is animportant source of runoff in the Tarim and Indus River Basin, which belong tothe severewater scarcity region. Under the background of climate change, rising temperature hascaused major challenges to the structure of water resources in these regions. With the fastdevelopment of social economy, future water demand will increase significantly, andwill exacerbate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources.Based on observed meteorological and hydrological data, this study analyzesclimate and runoff changes in the Tarim and Indus River Basins, and set uphydrological assessment model to quantify the contribution from rainfall, snow-melt,and glacier-melt to the total runoff at the “four sources” in the Tarim River Basin andupper Indus River Basin. Three downscaled global climate models (GFDL-ESM2M,HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC5) are used to drive the hydrological model to projectchanges of runoff, and analyze the streamflow compositions under different RCPscenarios in the 21st century. Based on the water usage in the Tarim and Indus RiverBasins in the historical period, and the localized and spatially interpolatedsocial-economic data under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-5), theagriculture, industrial and domestic water usage in the 21st century is projected. Andwater scarcity in the Tarim River Basin and Indus River Basin under 1.5oC and 2.0oCglobal warming levels, and impact of the water scarcity to the socio-economic arequantified as well. The main findings are as follows:(1) The temperature and precipitation of the Tarim River Basin and the IndusRiver Basin are both increasing trends. The temperature rising rate of the Tarim RiverBasin is higher than that of the Indus River Basin, and the precipitation is lower thanthat of the Indus River Basin. Runoff of the the Tarim River Basin in the 1961-2017was the increasing trend, while the runoff in the Indus River Basin was the decreasingtrend.(2) The HBV-Light hydrological model is set up at the seven hydrologicalstations in the “four sources” of the Tarim River Basin and four hydrological stationsin the upper Indus River Basin. HBV-Light model has comparatively good simulation ability for river runoff in each hydrological station and can be used to study thecharacteristics and the attribution of streamflow composition in the Tarim and IndusRiver Basins. The runoff in the “four sources” of the Tarim River Basin was 21.43billion m³ during the reference period (1986-2005), and will increase to 24.46 billionm³ under 1.5oC global warming and will further increase to 24.43 billion under 2.0oCglobal warming. The runoff in the upper Indus River Basin in the reference periodwas 145.41 billion m³, and will increase to 158.46 billion m³and 157.73 billion m³under 1.5oC and 2.0oC global warming level, respectively.(3) In 1986-2005, rainfall, snow-melt, and glacier-melt water contribute 43.4%,18.9% and 37.7% to the total runoff in the Tarim River Basin. Under the 1.5°C and2.0°C global warming, the contribution of rainfall runoff gradually decreased, whilethe contribution of snow meltwater and glacier meltwater runoff continued to increase.In the upper Indus River Basin, contribution of rainfall, snow-melt, glacier-melt water tototal runoff was 47.5%, 27.7% and 24.8% in the reference period. Contrary to theTarim River Basin, the proportion of rainfall to total runoff continues to increase,while the proportion of glacial meltwater continues to decrease. Under the1.5°Cglobal warming, and rainfall, snow-melt, and glacier-melt water contribute to 51.3%,25.5% and 23.2% to the total runoff, while at 2.0°C global warming, it becomes52.6%, 25.1% and 22.3%.(4) In the reference period, agricultural, industrial, and domestic water usagewas 14.78 billion m³, 0.1 billion m³, and 0.12 billion m³, respectively, in the TarimRiver Basin. The water usage of three sectors will be 16.86 billion m³, 0.21 billion m³,and 0.20 billion m³, respectively, under 1.5oC global warming, and will be 17.11billion m³, 0.23 billion m³, and 0.20 billion m³, respectively, under 2.0oC globalwarming level. The agricultural water usage in the Tarim River Basin accounts formore than 97% of the total water usage, and industrial and domestic water usage alsocontinues to increase. Similar to the Tarim River Basin, the proportion of agriculturalwater usage in the Indus River Basin is more than 95%. In 1986-2005, the waterusage for agriculture, industry and domestic in the Indus River Basin was 97.66billion m³, 1.70 billion m³ and 3.55 billion m³, respectively. With a global warming of1.5oC, agricultural, industrial, and domestic water usage will be 108.34 billion m³,5.52 billion m³, and 8.58 billion m³, respectively, and further increase to 111.01 billionm³, 8.64 billion m³, and 9.58 billion m³ at 2.0oC global warming level. The proportionof agricultural water usage to total water usage will decline continuously, while the proportion of industrial and domestic water usage will increase.(5) In the reference period, the Water Scarcity Index in the Tarim River Basinwas 64.4%, and will increase to 66.6% and 67.1%, respectively, at the 1.5oC and2.0oC global warming. Water scarcity in the Indus River Basin was severe than theTarim River Basin. The Water Scarcity Index was 67.4% for the 1986-2005, and willincrease to 75.9% at 1.5oC global warming, and further increase to 79.4% at 2.0oCglobal warming. The Tarim River Basin and the Indus River Basin have been in astate of water scarcity, and the contradiction between water supply and water demandwill further increase with rising temperature and socio-economic development, and asa result, state of water resource scarcity will continue to aggravate. Throughout the21st century, the Water Scarcity Index of the Tarim River Basin was less than 100%,and the amount of water resources in the basin could still satisfy its social andeconomic development; while the Indus River Basin, at the end of the 21st century,the water resources in the basin could no longer satisfy its social and economicdevelopment. Under the background of global warming of 1.5oC and 2.0oC, allagricultural land, population and GDP in the Tarim River Basin and Indus River Basinwill be affected by water shortages.
Subject Area自然地理学
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15450
Collection中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
研究系统
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
王安乾. 全球升温 1.5℃和 2.0℃下塔里木河与印度河流域水资源短缺风险的比较研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020.
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