KMS XINJIANG INSTITUTE OF ECOLOGY AND GEOGRAPHY，CAS
| 气候变化下中国棉铃虫种群动态变化及其防治策略 | |
| Alternative Title | opulation dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera （ Hübner） and its control strategy in China under climate change |
| 王振霖 | |
| Subtype | 硕士 |
| Thesis Advisor | 吕昭智 |
| 2020-06-30 | |
| Degree Grantor | 中国科学院大学 |
| Place of Conferral | 北京 |
| Degree Discipline | 理学硕士 |
| Keyword | 气候变化 棉铃虫 CLIMEX&DYMEX 模型 @RISK 潜在经济损失 管理策略 climate change cotton bollworm CLIMEX & DYMEX model @RISK potential economic loss management strategy |
| Abstract | 棉铃虫 Helicoverpa armigera （Hübner） 是危害棉花生产的主要害虫之一，在全球范围内，因该虫暴发导致的经济损失已屡见报道， 严重制约了棉花的生产发展。 近年来， 随着气候变化影响的日益加剧，棉铃虫造成的危害也趋于加重。面对未来逐渐变暖的气候影响，棉铃虫的防控与管理工作将面临极大挑战。 尤其，未来气候变化下棉铃虫的适生区及其种群动态如何变化？ 造成的潜在经济损失有多大？面对这些问题， 如何建立有效的防控体系将对棉花的产业发展至关重要。然而， 目前还尚未有相关的系统评估研究。因此， 本文通过 CLIMEX、 DYMEX模型， 预测气候变化下棉铃虫的适生区变化及其种群动态变化， 并以中国为框架，利用@RISK 软件， 评估三大棉区棉铃虫造成的潜在经济损失， 提出有效的防治策略，以期为未来气候变化下棉铃虫的综合防治提供理论依据。 本文主要研究成果如下：（1） 利用 CLIMEX 模型模拟了 2030-2100 年棉铃虫的潜在适生区分布，在未来逐渐变暖变湿的气候条件下，棉铃虫的潜在地理分布会继续沿北和西两个方向扩展，棉铃虫的非适生区将减少， 而低度适生区、中度适生区及高度适生区有不同程度的增加。新疆、青海、内蒙古等地的棉铃虫非适生区面积减少，其他地方变化很小； 低度适生区主要是西部干旱半干旱区、北部内蒙古、黑龙江等地的分布范围呈现逐渐扩大； 中度适生区分布将跨过黄河以北至承德、辽东半岛地区，而高度适生区的分布范围将会延伸至云南大部地区、岭南地区的广西、广东两省南部以及福建南部地区。同时， 通过对比 1975 年和 2100 年棉铃虫的发生代数，在未来气候变化下， 2100 年棉铃虫的发生代数将比 1975 年多 2-3 代。（2）基于 DYMEX 模型模拟了三大棉区在未来温度变化下（目前气候温度、未来增加 1.5℃、未来增加 2℃、未来增加 3℃）， 棉铃虫种群动态的变化趋势。结果表明，随着温度的增加，大多数区域的棉铃虫种群数量呈增加趋势。 基于CLIMEX 模型， 模拟了三大棉区典型区域的棉铃虫周生长指数 GIw变化， 结果显示相对 1975 年， 在 2100 年， 棉铃虫 GIw的首次出现日期提前了 15-20 天， 表明棉铃虫的田间危害时间延长。（3） 建立了适合中国三大棉区的潜在经济损失通用模型，利用@RISK 软件预测了棉铃虫对我国三大棉区棉花造成的潜在经济损失，结果显示，未来我国三大棉区全部种植常规棉花，棉铃虫造成的潜在经济损失在 27.42-58.16 亿元，而全部种植转基因棉花， 潜在经济损失相比之下会大幅降低，损失在 1.65-9.58 亿元； 种植常规棉的场景下，单位面积采用 IPM 管理的经济损失比常规管理减少5.63-26.84 元/亩；而种植转基因抗虫棉场景下，单位面积采用 IPM 管理的经济损失比常规管理减少 3.06-6.78 元/亩。 表明未来种植转基因棉花可有效降低经济损失，采用 IPM 综合防治策略可降低防治费用。 而两种场景下的潜在经济损失的灵敏度分析结果显示， 棉铃虫对棉花的为害率、棉铃虫造成的产量损失率及防治成本是造成经济损失的主导因素。 |
| Other Abstract | The cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera （ Hübner） is one of the main peststhat harm cotton production. In recent years, cotton production has been severelyrestricted, and economic losses caused by cotton bollworm outbreaks have beenreported frequently around the world. With the increasing impact of climate change, theharm caused by cotton bollworm is also gradually increasing. The problems of suitableareas and population dynamics of cotton bollworm, the potential economic loss causedby cotton bollworm, and how to effectively control it have not been addressed, and yetto be evaluated systematically under different scenarios of future climate change.Therefore, this paper uses model simulations to predict changes in the cottonbollworm's suitable areas and population dynamics under climate change. Using Chinaas a framework, we evaluated the potential economic losses caused by cotton bollwormin the three main cotton regions, and provide theoretical basis for the effective controlstrategies. The main results of this article are as follows:(1) The CLIMEX model was used to simulate the potential suitable areadistribution of cotton bollworm from 2030 to 2100. Under the gradually changedclimate towards warming and humidification in the future, the potential geographicdistribution of cotton bollworm will continue to expand in the north and west directionsof China. The non-suitable areas of cotton bollworm will decrease, while the lowsuitable area, moderate- suitable area and high- suitable area will increase in varyingdegrees. Non- suitable areas are mainly decreased in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia,and changes in other provinces are minute; low- suitable areas are mainly in arid andsemi-arid areas in the west, especially in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang to the norththe area is gradually expanding; The moderate-suitable areas will expand across thenorth of the Yellow River to Chengde and Liaodong Peninsula areas, while thedistribution of highly suitable areas will extend to most areas of Yunnan, Guangxi,southern Guangdong, and southern Fujian. At the same time, by comparing thegeneration numbers of cotton bollworm in 1975 and 2100, under the future climatechange, the generation number of cotton bollworm in 2100 will be 2-3 generations morethan in 1975.(2) Based on the DYMEX model, the trend of cotton bollworm populationdynamics in the three major cotton regions under four different future temperature change scenarios (current temperature, future increase of 1.5℃, future increase of 2℃,and future increase of 3℃) were simulated. The results showed that with the increaseof temperature, the population of cotton bollworm in most areas showed an increasingtrend. Based on the CLIMEX model, the change of the cotton bollworm weekly growthindex (GIw) in the three main cotton region areas were simulated. The results showedthat the first appearance date of the cotton bollworm GIw was 15-20 days earlier thanin 1975, indicating a prolongation of field damaging period of cotton bollworm.(3) A universal model of potential economic losses that suits for China's three maincotton region was established, and @RISK software was used to predict the potentialeconomic losses of cotton bollworm on cotton in China's three major cotton regions.The results showed that the potential economic loss caused by the cotton bollworm is2.742-5.816 billion yuan per year, if conventional cotton were cultivated in the threemain cotton region. Comparatively, the potential economic loss will be greatly reducedto 165-950 million yuan per year with the cultivation of genetically modified cotton inthe three main cotton region. Under the scenario of conventional cotton cultivation, Theeconomic loss under IPM is reduced by 5.63-26.84 yuan/mu compared withconventional management; while in the scenario of planting Bt transgenic cotton, theeconomic loss under IPM is 3.06-6.78 yuan/mu less than conventional management. Itshows that planting Bt transgenic cotton in the future can effectively reduce economiclosses, and adopting IPM comprehensive control strategy can reduce control costs. Thesensitivity analysis results of the potential economic loss under the two scenarios showthat the damage rate of cotton bollworm to cotton, the yield loss rate caused by cottonbollworm, and the control cost are the leading factors causing economic loss. |
| Subject Area | 生态学 |
| Language | 中文 |
| Document Type | 学位论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15453 |
| Collection | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 研究系统 |
| Affiliation | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| First Author Affilication | 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | 王振霖. 气候变化下中国棉铃虫种群动态变化及其防治策略[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020. |
| Files in This Item: | There are no files associated with this item. | |||||
Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.
Edit Comment