EGI OpenIR
中亚社会经济用水分析
Alternative TitleAnalysis of Socio-economic Water Utilization in Central Asia
刘爽
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor罗格平 ; 白洁
2020-06-30
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline理学硕士
Keyword中亚 5 国 社会经济用水 系统动力学 水分利用效率 Aral Sea Basin the 5 Central Asian countries water resources socioeconomic water system dynamics water use efficiency
Abstract中亚 5 国水资源严重分布不均,自苏联解体后,水土矛盾日益突出。 1960 年以来咸海流域大规模的水土资源开发,社会经济用水激增,致使至 1990 年咸海面积萎缩 50%,引发咸海生态危机。 受数据限制, 中亚 5 国及咸海流域的社会经济用水的时空变化特征和趋势还不清楚。本研究在整合多途径获取的 1960—2016 年中亚 5 国 43 州的水资源和社会经济数据的基础上, 利用系统动力学模型,仿真模拟和分析了 1960—2016 年咸海流域社会经济和用水时空变化特征,并多情景预测 2016—2030 年咸海流域社会经济用水。 其后将该方法推广到中亚五国尺度,对中亚五国社会经济用水变化进行分析。 中亚 5 国农业用水占社会经济用水量的 80%以上,农作物水分利用效率关系该地区的粮食安全与水安全。本文结合农业统计数据与基于 Landsat 遥感影像提取的 3 期耕地数据(1975、 2005、 2015 年),建立基于耕地像元尺度的粮食作物和棉花的种植结构和产量空间数据集;基于 CRU 气象栅格数据集和 FAO 推荐的作物系数法,并结合当地作物系数的观测数据,计算农作物耗水量和水分利用效率,并分析其时空变化特征。对中亚及咸海流域的社会经济用水分析结果表明: 1960—1980 年,中亚 5 国社会经济用水总量由 52.4 km3/a 增长至 135.5 km3/a,增幅到达 158.8%,农业用水量占总用水量比例由 60 年代初的 85.3%增至 80 年代初的 88%; 1980—1990 年为中亚 5 国的用水高峰期,在该时期,年均用水量达到 139.5 km3,农业用水量占总用水量比例为 88.2%; 1990—2000 年总用水量呈减少趋势(降幅 18.2%),农业用水量占总用水量比例达到 90.2%; 2000 年以来,总用水量进入平稳增长阶段,以 1.3 km3/a 的速度增长。 1960—2016 年咸海流域人口(增幅 267%)、 GDP(增幅 1100%)迅速增长。 1960—2016 年咸海流域社会经济用水量从 41 km3 增长至 91 km3。咸海流域的工农业用水效益在苏联解体后明显增加,但仍处于较低水平。对未来的情景预测表明:若延续现有社会经济用水效率、农作物种植面积持续扩张(S1),至 2030 年咸海流域社会经济用水量达到 107 km3;而在滴灌普及率达到 70%、种植面积不变的情景下(S10),社会经济用水量降至 79 km3,可有效缓解咸海危机。中亚 5 国水资源严重分布不均,自苏联解体后,水土矛盾日益突出。 1960 年以来咸海流域大规模的水土资源开发,社会经济用水激增,致使至 1990 年咸海面积萎缩 50%,引发咸海生态危机。 受数据限制, 中亚 5 国及咸海流域的社会经济用水的时空变化特征和趋势还不清楚。本研究在整合多途径获取的 1960—2016 年中亚 5 国 43 州的水资源和社会经济数据的基础上, 利用系统动力学模型,仿真模拟和分析了 1960—2016 年咸海流域社会经济和用水时空变化特征,并多情景预测 2016—2030 年咸海流域社会经济用水。 其后将该方法推广到中亚五国尺度,对中亚五国社会经济用水变化进行分析。 中亚 5 国农业用水占社会经济用水量的 80%以上,农作物水分利用效率关系该地区的粮食安全与水安全。本文结合农业统计数据与基于 Landsat 遥感影像提取的 3 期耕地数据(1975、 2005、 2015 年),建立基于耕地像元尺度的粮食作物和棉花的种植结构和产量空间数据集;基于 CRU 气象栅格数据集和 FAO 推荐的作物系数法,并结合当地作物系数的观测数据,计算农作物耗水量和水分利用效率,并分析其时空变化特征。对中亚及咸海流域的社会经济用水分析结果表明: 1960—1980 年,中亚 5 国社会经济用水总量由 52.4 km3/a 增长至 135.5 km3/a,增幅到达 158.8%,农业用水量占总用水量比例由 60 年代初的 85.3%增至 80 年代初的 88%; 1980—1990 年为中亚 5 国的用水高峰期,在该时期,年均用水量达到 139.5 km3,农业用水量占总用水量比例为 88.2%; 1990—2000 年总用水量呈减少趋势(降幅 18.2%),农业用水量占总用水量比例达到 90.2%; 2000 年以来,总用水量进入平稳增长阶段,以 1.3 km3/a 的速度增长。 1960—2016 年咸海流域人口(增幅 267%)、 GDP(增幅 1100%)迅速增长。 1960—2016 年咸海流域社会经济用水量从 41 km3 增长至 91 km3。咸海流域的工农业用水效益在苏联解体后明显增加,但仍处于较低水平。对未来的情景预测表明:若延续现有社会经济用水效率、农作物种植面积持续扩张(S1),至 2030 年咸海流域社会经济用水量达到 107 km3;而在滴灌普及率达到 70%、种植面积不变的情景下(S10),社会经济用水量降至 79 km3,可有效缓解咸海危机。
Other AbstractThe water resources of the five Central Asian countries are unevenly distributed.Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, water and land conflicts have becomeincreasingly prominent. Water and land resource development since 1960 in the AralSea Basin has led to a surge in socio-economic water consumption and resulted in a 50%contraction of the Aral Sea area at 1990, which was known as the Aral Sea Crisis. Dueto limited data, the characteristics and trends of the spatiotemporal changes in socioeconomic water use in the five Central Asian countries and the Aral Sea basin areunclear.Based on the multi-source acquisition of water and socio-economic data of 43states in five Central Asian countries from 1960 to 2016, this study used the SystemDynamics model to simulate and analyzed the characteristics of the socio-economicand water use changes in five Central Asian countries from 1960 to 2016, focusing onanalyzing the characteristics of the socio-economic and water use in the Aral Sea basin,and the prediction of socio-economic water use in the Aral Sea basin from 2016 to 2030under multi-scenario. Agricultural water use in the five Central Asian countriesaccounts for more than 80% of socio-economic water use, and crop water use efficiencyhas a bearing on food security and water security in the region. This paper combinedstate-level agricultural statistics data and cultivated land data (1975, 2005, 2015) fromremote sensing imagery and established spatial datasets of planting structure and yieldof grains and cotton based on cultivated land pixel scale. Then this paper calculatedcrops water consumption and water use efficiency based on CRU meteorological griddataset, crop coefficient method recommended by FAO and observation data of localcrop phenology. Finally, this research analyzed the temporal and spatial variationcharacteristics of these data.The analysis results are as follows:(1) From 1960 to 1980, the total socio-economic water consumption in the five Central Asian countries increased from 52.4 km3/a to 135.5 km3/a, an increase of158.8%. The proportion of agricultural water consumption in total water consumptionincreased from 85.3% to 88% during 1960 to1980; the average annual waterconsumption reached 139.5 km3 and the agricultural water consumption accounted for88.2% of the total water consumption during 1980-1990; from 1990 to 2000, it showeda decreasing trend (decrease by 18.2%), and the proportion of agricultural waterconsumption in total water consumption reached 90.2%; since 2000, the total waterconsumption has entered a stage of steady growth, with 1.3 km3/a.(2) The population of the Aral Sea Basin (an increase of 267%) and GDP (anincrease of 1100%) increased rapidly during 1960-2016. From 1960 to 2016, the socioeconomic water consumption in the Aral Sea Basin increased from 41 km3 to 91 km3.The socio-economic water consumption of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan increasedrapidly before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and decreased after the collapse of theSoviet Union. The socio-economic water consumption in Turkmenistan and Tajikistanhas continued to grow in the past 60 years. The benefits of industrial and agriculturalwater use in the Aral Sea Basin increased significantly after the collapse of the SovietUnion, but remained at a relatively low level. The forecast of the future shows that ifthe existing socio-economic water use efficiency and cropland expand is continued (S1),the socio-economic water consumption in the Aral Sea Basin will reach 107 km3 by2030. Under the S10 scenario where the drip irrigation penetration rate reaches to 70%and the cropland unchanged, the socio-economic water consumption will drop to 79km3, which can effectively alleviate the crisis in the Aral Sea Basin.(3) The development of crops cultivation in the 5 Central Asian countries is dividedinto expansion period (1960-1990), reduction period (1990-2000), recovery period(2000-2016). After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the planting proportion of grainsin Central Asia increased and the planting proportion of cotton decreased. The yield ofgrains in Central Asia increased from 0.9 t/hm2 to 1.9 t/hm2 during 1960-2016, withUzbekistan being the highest and reaching 4.2 t/hm2 in 2016. Cotton yield increasedduring the period 1960-1990 and decresed from 1990 to 2016. However, there is nosignificant change in water consumption per unit area. The water use efficiency of grains in the 5 Central Asian countries increased from 0.22 kg/m3 to 0.39 kg/m3 during1960-2016. The cotton water use efficiency increased during the period of 1960-1990from 0.23 kg/m3 to 0.30 kg/m3 and decreased since 1990 and currently close to the levelof the 1960s, which is about 0.22 kg/m3. The crops water use efficiency in the 5 CentralAsian countries are still at low level. Improving crops water use efficiency is significantfor maintaining food security and water security in Central Asia.
Subject Area地图学与地理信息系统
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.xjlas.org/handle/365004/15456
Collection中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
研究系统
Affiliation中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
刘爽. 中亚社会经济用水分析[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020.
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