Alternative TitleStudy of agricultural water resources vulnerability in Central Asia under climate change
Thesis Advisor李兰海
Degree Grantor中国科学院大学
Place of Conferral北京
Degree Discipline理学硕士
Keyword气候变化 农业 水资源脆弱性 中亚 climate change agriculture water resources vulnerability Central Asia
Abstract气候变化是当今全球变化研究的热点问题之一,研究气候变化背景下干旱区农业水资源脆弱性,对农业水资源管理、规划以及水资源的有效利用至关重要,可为实现农业用水系统的高效运作提供支撑。农业水资源脆弱性是指在自然条件变动或人为条件干扰的前提下,衡量农业水资源系统影响农业可持续发展能力的重要指标。在自然、社会以及人类活动变化条件下,农业水资源脆弱性研究可以结合暴露度、敏感度和适应度等指标进行综合表达。中亚是气候变化的敏感地带,干旱区面积广阔,水资源短缺和生态环境恶化将严重影响中亚地区农业用水安全,使得该地区农业水资源利用存在不确定性。本研究以中亚为研究区,依据水资源脆弱性的概念与内涵,从暴露度、敏感度和适应度等 3 个一级指标中选取 18 个二级指标建立农业水资源脆弱性指标体系,采用等权重法和主成分分析法分别确定各级指标权重,研究气候变化对中亚农业水资源脆弱性的影响; 在气候变化背景下,评价中亚农业水资源脆弱性,为区域农业水资源管理提供科学依据。主要结论如下:(1)通过分析中亚作物生育期气候要素变化特征,表明中亚作物生育期的平均气温、降水量、潜在蒸散量以及相对湿润度指数等气象要素变化差异明显。平均气温和潜在蒸散量有显著增加趋势,降水量和相对湿润度指数有微弱增加趋势,并且各气候要素有明显的年际变化。(2)中亚农业水资源暴露度、敏感度、适应度和脆弱性空间差异显著。农业水资源暴露度从西南向东北大致降低;农业水资源敏感度表现为从南到北降低的变化;农业水资源适应度表现为从南到北逐渐升高的变化; 受森林覆盖率、农业用水比例、农田灌溉定额、水分胁迫指数、灌溉指数和施政效率的影响, 农业水资源脆弱度表现为自东北向西南升高的变化。 中亚农业水资源脆弱度变化趋势表现为“前期升高,后期降低” 的态势,其脆弱度发生变化的面积随时间经历升高-降低-稳定-稳定的过程。(3)根据中亚农业水资源脆弱性空间分布特征,可划分为北部微度脆弱区、中北部轻度脆弱区、中南部中度脆弱区、南部重度脆弱区和西南部极度脆弱区 5个大区,根据各分区农业水资源脆弱性地理特征,为未来农业生产布局、社会经济发展和环境保护提供参考依据。
Other AbstractClimate change is an important topic in global hydrological research. Thevulnerability assessment of agricultural water resources is the scientific basis ofreasonable agricultural water resources management and sustainable water utilizationin the arid regions. The vulnerability of agricultural water resources is a vital indicatorreflecting agricultural sustainability and the effects of natural condition changes and/orhuman activities on the agricultural water resources system. The vulnerability ofagricultural water resources is an indicator which expresses the restoration capacity ofagricultural water system against change in natural and social conditions as well ashuman activities, and can be defined as an integrated result of exposure, sensitivity andadaptation. The Central Asia is a sensitive regions for climate change. Due to the largedegree of drought, severe water shortages and degradation of the ecologicalenvironment in the region affect agriculture water safety, and finally increase theuncertainty of agricultural water resources utilization in the Central Asia. Studying thevulnerability of agricultural water resources in Central Asia under climate change canprovide the scientific basis for rational utilization of regional agricultural waterresources.This study took Central Asian region as study area. Based on the concept andtheory of water resources vulnerability under climate change, An indicator system forevaluating agricultural water resources vulnerability was established with selected 18indicators from three components, namely exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. Thestudy used Equal-Weights, PCA (Principal Component Analysis) and comprehensiveevaluation method to analyze vulnerability of agricultural water resources in CentralAsia under climate change. Appropriate measures were proposed to reduce agriculturalwater resources vulnerability in Central Asia under the global climate change. The mainachievements of this study are given as follows:(1) The average temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration andrelative moisture index with significant difference crop growth period in Central Asiawere explored. The results shown that the average temperature and potential evapotranspiration have a significant increasing trends, and the precipitation andrelative moisture index has a slight increasing trends during study period. The resultsalso revealed that the average temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspirationand relative moisture index have the interannual variations.(2) There are obvious spatial differences in the distribution of agricultural waterresources exposure, sensitivity, adaptation and vulnerability in Central Asia. Theexposure of agricultural water resources gradually decreases from southwest tonortheast in the region. The sensitivity of agricultural water resources is a gradualdecreasing trend from south to north. The adaptation of agricultural water resourcesgradually increases from south to north in the study area. The spatial distribution ofagricultural water resources vulnerability in the region is dominated by the forestcoverage, proportion of agricultural water, irrigation quota, water stress index,irrigation index and administrative efficiency, showing a gradual increasing trend fromthe northeast to the southwest. The agricultural water resources vulnerability in CentralAsia increased at first and then decreased until the end of the study period. The area ofhigh vulnerability firstly ascended, then declined and eventually became steady.(3) According to the spatial distribution of agricultural water resourcesvulnerability, Central Asia can be divided into five zones, i.e. little vulnerable zone innorth, slightly vulnerable zone in central and north, moderately vulnerable zone incentral and south, severely vulnerable zone in south and extremely vulnerable zone insouthwest. Based on the characteristics of agricultural water resources vulnerability ineach zone, some suggestions are proposed for improving the agricultural production,socioeconomic development and environment protection in the future.
Subject Area自然地理学
Document Type学位论文
First Author Affilication中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
于水. 气候变化下中亚农业水资源脆弱性研究[D]. 北京. 中国科学院大学,2020.
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